Monday, June 8, 2020

The Informer's 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Preview: Draft #1



For those clicking on an Informer blog for the first time please allow me to introduce myself: My name is The Informer and I am a self-glossed fantasy football expert. My credentials for this "self-glossing" are as follows: I play fantasy football and I once started Ryan Leaf in a week where he completed 1 of 15 passes for 4 yards.

Anyways, which means please don't interrupt the expert while I am blogging, the reason we are here is to try and help you the reader draft the perfect fantasy football team for the upcoming 2020 NFL Season.

Now, in order to accomplish this goal, The Informer is taking it upon himself to draft an un-Tebowly amount of fantasy teams (trying to join 50 "real money" leagues this year) and then I will share my experience and insights from each draft. The thinking is you will learn from The Informer's success, failures, mistakes and triumphs; so when it is time for your draft you will be able to devise the perfect strategy needed to dominate.

Ok, now that we have the "who's and the what's" figured out, the last thing I want to mention before we start is that I am breaking down my team from a "$12 real money league" 10-team auction draft on Yahoo dot com (Yahoo has the best paid fantasy leagues on the internet).

I am pointing out that this is a "$12 real money league" in order to show everyone reading that this was not a fake "mock draft" where two people took it seriously; seven people auto drafted; and one guy spent $174 on the Denver Broncos defense because his third cousin's brother's friend Tami once saw John Elway with his shirt off.

No, this team was drafted into a league with real stakes up for grabs (stakes as in prize money, not the stuff you dip into ketchup) which means The Informer really needs to win so I can pay my bills is fully invested in said team's success.

And on that note, here is Team 1 of The Informer's 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Preview.  

STARTING LINEUP (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K & 1 Def)

QB - Matt Ryan ($2)

There is nothing sexy about drafting year 12 of the Matty Ice experience, but for $2 I was able to draft a QB with nine straight 4,000 yard passing seasons who also throws the ball to Julio Jones. Considering I spent all my other draft money on four players, being able to pick up the consistency of the Falcons leader was huge.

RB - Saquon Barkley ($70)

My goal entering every 2020 auction draft is to buy two of the Barkley-Run CMC-Zeke trio. In this draft I was able to snag Barkley, but in the end The Informer got gun shy and did not pull the trigger on CMC ($74) or Zeke ($71) to form the dynamic duo.

Will this lack of guts cost The Informer money in this league? I don't think so, but we will see. Will this lack of guts  haunt The Informer's dreams for the next eight months? Absolutely.

WR - Julio Jones ($44)

WR - AJ Green ($20)

Many fantasy pundits will say that I underpaid for Julio (no reason he is not going for $50), but that I in turn overpaid for AJ (should be in the $10-$15 range). The Informer would say that is why they are pundits and not experts. Because in The Informer's "expert" opinion; I definitely under paid for Julio, but I got a steal with AJ.

The scientific facts to my AJ case are simple: Once the pre-season starts and everyone sees a healthy Green doing what a healthy Green does (making defensive backs his beeotch) his price is going to go up into the mid 30s.

So getting him for $20 is an expert win for The Informer.

Flex - Derrick Henry ($59)

Flex - Damian Williams ($2)

I think the Tennessee Titans are going to give Derrick Henry 400 carries this year. I also think that if the Tennessee Titans give Derrick Henry 400 carries this year, that will mean Derrick Henry is going to rush for 2,000 yards. And if Derrick Henry runs for 2,000 yards he will be worth every penny of his $59 price tag.

As for Damian Williams; I know the Chiefs drafted a running back in the first round, but my feeling is that the Chiefs and their veteran offense are still going to ride Williams while they integrate the new rookie into their lineup. So for me, I would rather spend $2 on Williams than the $40 that was spent on Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

With that said, The Informer does reserve the right to change my mind once we actually get to watch football and see if the Edwards-Helaire hype is real or media made up. Until that time though, The Informer will not be spending Josh Jacobs type money on an unknown when I can have the "almost won a Super Bowl MVP" running back who plays on the same high octane offense.

TE - Noah Fant ($1)

I drafted Fant and TJ Hockenson because I think both guys are going to be second year studs this season. And, well, if The Informer is correct on even one of these guys --then I just got myself a Top 10 player at his position for a buck. How many other guys/positions (kickers and defense obviously not counted) will you be able to say that about in 2020?

Kicker - A guy for $1

Defense - A defense for $1

My life philosophy has always been you only spend $2 total for your defense and kicker. With that said; if you want to spend a few bucks on Justin Tucker (the only kicker you are allowed to spend more than $1 on), or say the 49ers defense, I am not going to be upset with you. I would just say use caution and don't forsake drafting someone like DK Metcalf because you want to save money for the Arizona defense. 

THE RESERVES 

BN - Julian Edelman ($4)

BN - Darius Slayton ($1)

BN - James White ($1)

BN - Henry Ruggs III ($1)

BN - Sammy Watkins ($1)

BN - Tee Higgins ($1)

BN - TJ Hockenson

Julian Edelman is a risk without Tom Brady, but for $4 I think he is a low risk with potential for high reward. Darius Slayton was tied for ninth in the NFL in TD catches last season, so he is a good $1 buy low guy. I picked up James White hoping he has a bigger role now that Tom Brady is gone. Ruggs & Higgins are my rookie lottery tickets. Hockenson I already expressed how I feel about. And finally, I drafted Sammy Watkins because he has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

THE INFORMER'S FINAL DRAFT THOUGHTS


Biggest Reach/Mistake (Hashtag: Did somebody say steak?)

This is the dreaded "I got caught up in a bidding war and over spent on a guy" award. In this draft, I would say the dude who spent $40 on Edwards-Helaire made the biggest mistake. But I would also argue The Informer made the biggest reach by ponying up $59 for Derrick Henry. Now, I am not saying Henry was a bad buy, I am just saying that Henry will probably go for $48-$52 in most drafts; so going that far over "Henry budget" has to be considered a reach.


The Informer's "I got me eye on you" Best Future Values

I know that every draft is different, so values will change from draft to draft, but judging on these results alone here are my favorite value guys (guys with cheap/good price tags) that I will be keeping my eye on going forward: Nick Chubb ($49), Josh Jacobs ($36), Melvin Gordon ($15), Cooper Kupp ($14), Zach Ertz ($11), Devin Singletary ($12), Tyler Lockett ($9), Amari Cooper ($10 WHAT?!!!), Kyler Murray ($6 gonna be a huge year), Courtland Sutton ($8), DK Metcalf ($5) and Marquise Brown ($4).

Best Team The Informer Could Have Had If "if's and buts was candies and nuts"

Based on the amount of money spent on every player, here is the best possible team I think The Informer could have drafted if everything had gone perfectly (We had a $210 Budget to fill the roster):

QB - Lamar Jackson ($28)

RB - Zeke ($71)

WR - DK Metcalf ($5)

WR - Amari Cooper ($10)

Flex - Barkley ($70)

Flex  - Devin Singletary ($12)

TE - Noah Fant ($1 seriously gonna be great this year)

K - One Dollar

D - One Dollar

BN- CeDee Lamb ($1)

BN - Austin Hooper ($1)

BN -Ronald Jones ($1)

BN - Damian Williams ($2)

BN - Phillip Lindsay ($1)

BN - Darius Slayton ($1)

BN - Baltimore's "Hollywood" Brown ($4)

Now, while I really liked the way "The Informer Team #1" turned out, any logical fantasy expert can look at the above "hypothetical team" and see there is room to improve. Which means, it is time for The Informer to stop blogging and get back to drafting.

Peace and hair grease y'all. The Informer will be back with Team #2 soon.

Hashtag: "Draft well & Prosper."