Can you BOLIEVE it is year eight of The Informer writing this NFL Picks column? Eight freaking years man? I guess the old saying really is true, "time totally disappears when you are an alcoholic."
Natty Light abuse aside, one thing that happened over the course of the past eight seasons is The Informer has learned a lesson or two about NFL gambling.
Whether it is Vegas never loses (see New England-Pittsburgh push if you need evidence of that), bookies are not your best friend, parlays are a sucker bet, teasers are the devil, or that you never -- not even if there is a fire -- bet against Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in prime-time; The Informer has been made a wiser gambler by picking every game each week.
Of course, since The Informer is a wiser man from these past eight years, he has actually developed a set of NFL gambling rules that he
These are the so called "golden rules" The Informer has used to pick over 52% against the spread four of the last five seasons (history shows they work).
These are also the "golden rules" The Informer wants to share with his reader (yes singular) today so that we can all enjoy in the spoils that comes from making fake illegal wagers with some dude named Fat Tuna Fish.
So with that in mind, before we get to the Week 1 picks, here are the rules . . .
Rule #1
As we mentioned above you never bet against Tom Brady or 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning in Prime-time (If they are playing each other in prime-time take the home quarterback).
Rule #2
Be careful against the home underdog. Unless of course that dog is named Jacksonville.
Rule #3
Bet the first half under. Don’t question the why, just do it.
Rule #4
If 80% of the public is betting one way, you should bet the other. Again, there is a reason Vegas builds Casinos, and it is not because the public is good at gambling.
Rule #5
Don’t lose money betting a crappy quarterback. The Informer is talking about guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Texans QB, and whatever dumpster fire they start in Cleveland.
Rule #6
West Coast teams flying to the East Coast for a noon game have a hard time covering the spread.
Rule #7
Same thing goes for the team coming off of a huge victory the week before (this is called a letdown game and they are real).
Rule #8
If the spread is 14 or higher, always take the dog.
Rule #9
If two garbage teams are playing always take the points.
Rule #10
When it comes to Week 1; throw all of the rules out because it is going to be a clusterf*** of mass gambling proportions that nobody except Vegas can accurately predict (Week 1 is by far the hardest week to handicap).
Okay . . . Now that we have all of the rules covered: D.J. could you please hit The Informer’s music so we can f****** gamble?
Dear Lord, no one wants to here the damn "Duck Song" before they gamble. Come on D.J. you can do better than that.
Yes beer is good, we can agree there, but could we maybe play something a little more upbeat and joyful? You know, some Hammer, or Taylor Swift? Hell, you can even play that Wizzard Khalifa guy. The Informer doesn't care, just put a funky-fresh beat on so we can get this show on the road.
Holy f**k!!! Is that Hanson? Just wow . . . This column has officially reached an all-time low. Will everyone just please crack's open their Natties and we will pretend this opening never happened?
Does that sound good to y'all?
Good . . . Great . . . Grand . . .Wonderful!!!
And on that note, ladies and gentlemen welcome to Week 1 of The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks Column.
As always, I hope you all enjoy #MMMbop.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-7)
Since 2011 the Green Bay Packers are 9-1 (including playoffs) against the Chicago Bears. In those games the Packers have won by seven or more points eight of the nine times. Furthermore; last season the Packers outscored Chicago 93-31.
Do you all see what The Informer is getting at here?
"Hey Informer, did you know that 86% of the public is currently betting the Packers? Isn’t that one of your rules? To always bet against the big public bet? Also, did you know that 15 of the 30 people in your NFL suicide poll picked the Packers on Sunday? Do you see what I am getting at?"
Soooo . . . The figment of my imagination is saying that the smart bet is on Jay Cutler and the Bears because this is the way to obvious game that keeps hotel lights on in Vegas? Okay, that is a fair point, but the figment of my imagination is over looking one key thing about this pick: There is no way in the bluest of blue hells The Informer is going to bet Jay Cutler against the Packers.
Pick: Packers (-7)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-1)
The Informer swears he is done arguing against everyone who thinks that 2014 J.J. Watt had the greatest single season any football player has ever had in the 96-year history of the NFL.
You all win.
After the season he had, J.J. Watt should have won the MVP, been named President of the Untied States and been allowed to marry Linsey Lohan (is Linsey Lohan still a thing? Cameron Diaz? Who is the hot chick these days?)
With that concession being made, there is one question The Informer would like to ask: If Watt’s season was so great, what does that say about Justin Houston and his NFL leading 22 sacks in 2014?
I mean if 20.5 sacks is the greatest ever, what does that mean for 22? Does it mean we should retroactively go back and make Justin Houston the MVP instead of Watt? Just saying, didn’t Justin help the Chiefs not make the playoffs the same exact way Watt helped the Texans (that answer is yes)? So then why is Watt the greatest player ever and Houston is not? And why does it bother me so damn much that people are anointing J.J. Watt the greatest thing since sliced Blimpies?
Okay, so that was more like four questions, but you get the point. Justin Houston is a beast on defense. J.J. Watt is a beast on defense. And neither guy should have been the 2014 NFL MVP.
End of weekly "J.J. Watt is not the greatest ever" rant.
As for the game, The Informer is going with the Chiefs because they have a reliable quarterback, Jamaal Charles and a great defense while the Texans have Brian Hoyer and Alfred Blue.
Also, if you can bet game props, put some dough on Jeremy Maclin catching a touchdown. Something tells me the Chiefs (who did not throw a single TD pass to a WR last year) are going to try and get Maclin involved early and often on Sunday.
Pick: Chiefs (+1)
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW YORK JETS (-3.5)
This game sucks. In the words of Forrest Gump, "that is all I have to say about that."
Pick: Browns (+3.5)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BUFFALO BILLS (+2.5)
Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor versus 2015 NFL MVP Andrew Luck?
Wow, talk about a toss-up. No really, The Informer is totally torn on this one. Sure, Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the NFL, but the Bills are starting Tryod "The Cannon" Taylor. Think about that for a second, the dude's middle name is "The Cannon". How can this guy not cover 2.5 points against a team The Informer thinks will be a Super Bowl contender in 2015?
Seriously, is there anything scarier in Vegas than hearing the words "Tyrod 'The Cannon' Taylor is getting 2.5 points against Andrew Luck?"
To answer the next question: Yes The Informer is just f******* with you. The Colts are obviously this week's Lion King Lock of the Week.
Lock and load Ramathorn.
Pick: LKLOTW Colts (-2.5)
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3.5)
If gambling these past eight years has taught The Informer anything, it is when there are three sure fire road favorites to choose from (Colts, Packers & Dolphins), you can bank on something weird happening causing at least one of the teams to not cover.
So the question now becomes: What should The Informer do? Back a worthless Kirk Cousins against The informer’s favorite breakout player of 2015 --Ryan "RT1" Tannehill? Go back to the top of the article and change the pick so that he is either betting against Aaron Rodgers (and 86% of the public) or Andrew Luck while siding with Jay Cutler or Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor? Or should The Informer completely ignore all of his own rules and put Tannehill, Luck and Rodgers in a three-teamer that will pay for my kid’s college?
Honestly, if you have been reading The Informer for the past eight seasons you know exactly where this is heading #FreeCollegeForEveryone
Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3)
Instead of talking about this game, how about we share some funny "Patriots are cheaters memes"?
There is this one . . .
And this one . . .
Shirtless Tom Brady hugging a football?
Then there is this one . . .
This one is really funny . . .
And last but not least . . .
LOL . . . The HGHawks. What a great meme.
Pick: Jags (+3)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS (+4)
Speaking of the HGHawks, The Informer does not care that Seattle has not covered the last three times they went to St. Louis; they will win and cover this game. Watch for a huge two TD performance from the HGHawks newest tight end addition.
Pick: Seahawks (-4)
TENNESSEE TITANS @ TAMPA BAY (-3)
Number one on the list of things The Informer never thought he would say: "I can’t freaking wait to watch the Titans-Bucs game on Sunday".
That is not a lie. The Informer is actually excited to watch the Mariota-Winston showdown. It should be a fun one.
When it comes to betting this game, The Informer is backing the Titans because of their defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. No really, did you know that since 1995 Dick LeBeau is 26-3 versus rookie QBs? Now, The Informer has never claimed to be a rocket Scientologist, but even I know that a 26-3 record is impressive.
So good luck on Sunday Jameis. The Informer will be rooting for you, but he will be betting on Tennessee blue.
Pick: Titans (+3)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3)
75% of the public betting against Drew Brees? The Informer will take them odds.
Pick: Saints (+3)
DETROITS LIONS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3)
Who is up for a game of let’s compare Calvin, Randy and Jerry’s first eight seasons?
Calvin Johnson: 643 receptions, 10,405 yards, 74 TDs and six 1,000 yard seasons
Jerry Rice: 610 receptions, 10,273 yards, 103 TDs and seven 1,000 yard seasons
Randy Moss: 634 receptions, 10,147, 98 TDs and seven 1,000 yard seasons
In the immortal word's of Bill Walton, "Who's better?"
Pick: Lions (+3)
CINCINATTI BENGALS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3)
The Informer really wanted to pick the Raiders in this game, because contrary to popular opinion the Raiders are going to be vastly improved this year, but this is Week 1; which means The Informer has to take the Bengals and the red-headed gunslinger because they are the better team.
Pick: Bengals (-3)
DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (+4.5)
Last season 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning threw for 4,727 yards (the second most in his career) despite not having any arm strength, not being able to play in the cold and having a torn quadriceps.
Last season 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning threw 39 touchdowns (behind only Andrew Luck who had 40) despite the fact that the National Media said he was too old to still play at a high level.
And finally, last season was the eleventh straight year Manning finished with a completion percentage above 65% percent despite the fact that he had four neck surgeries three years ago and has since had no feelings in his fingertips.
What is The Informer’s point?
Pretty simple; the 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning would not have came back to play this season if he was not still going to be Peyton 5x NFL MVP freaking Manning.
So to all of the people who are again saying (this will be the fourth straight year of the Manning is done rhetoric) that this is the year Manning dies; please stop. Manning is still going to be good for 4,000 yards, 30+ TD passes and a "laser-rocket arm" while leading a loaded Broncos team to their fourth straight AFC West title.
Pick: Broncos (-4.5)
NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5)
Scoring machine Dez Bryant going head to head with Odell Beckham Jr., aka the man that NFL physics forget. Talk about giving a guy a "Mike's friend from Growing Pains in sweatpants".
As for the gambling portion of this contest, The Informer is going to back the Giants because this game is going to come down to a Cowboys last second field goal. So if The Informer is right, that means the Cowboys will win, but will not cover the 6.5 points.
That folks is called standard gambling math.
Pick: Giants (+6.5)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ ATLANTA FALCONS (+3)
The Informer really likes the Philadelphia Eagles this season. If Sam Bradford can stay healthy, this is going to be a really, really, good team. So of course, since The Informer absolutely loves the Eagles this year, he is going to pick against them Week 1.
For those that don't know, The Informer is a moron.
Pick: Falcons (+3)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5)
Other than the Philadelphia Eagles, there is not another team getting more love around the nation than the Minnesota Vikings. With the return of the 10,000 yard man, the growth of Ted Football and a new stadium on the horizon; the sky is the limit for the 2015 Minnesota Vikings.
Well, The Informer would like to see it before he starts giving points on the road to a team that won seven games in 2014.
Pick: 49ers (+2.5)
That is a wrap folks. Please enjoy Week 1. May your Sunday be filled with winning parlays, cases of Natty and all the Blimpies a stomach can handle.
Now D.J. let's try this one last time: Will you please hit the dance music and take us home?
#FOOTBALLISBACKBABY!!! #RAISEUP!!!
(The Informer note - Just so everyone knows, The Question will be back next week. Do to some scheduling issues we were not able to get his picks edited into the article. Don't worry though, to keep things on the up and up (wouldn't want him to pretend he went undefeated in Week 1) I will post his picks on my twitter before kickoff Sunday. Mahalo.)
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