The Informer's 2018 NFL Picks: Week 1

For those of you that are new to this blog my name is The Informer. I am an overweight middle aged man with a Natty Light problem who watches too much football and loves to gamble. I am also someone who has picked over 50% correct against the spread on NFL games in nine of the last 11 seasons.

Which brings us to why we are here today: Simply put, me and you (aka the readers) are here to make money illegally (and technically in some countries now legally) betting on NFL games while hopefully getting "Jay Culter Wasted" and having a few laughs.

So what is about to happen is I am going to go through every game from Week 1 of the 2018 NFL Season and pick who I think is going to cover the spread (this is not who I think is going to win, this is who is going to "cover" the point spread). And then you the reader will in turn use the information I provided to place illegal wagers and win tons of money.

It literally is that easy.

I watch the football, then I provide the expert winning picks, then you win a stuff ton of money. It is a no lose situation for everyone involved as long as I continue to be one of the best NFL handicappers on the internet (which obviously is going to happen); you keep using the information provided to place wagers (again if you are reading it will happen); and of course the FBI does not arrest any of us for committing illegal acts of gaming (I am not sure that can legally happen in Murica. Can it?).

(The Informer note - I am of course just kidding about making illegal wagers. This is a satire column that provides information/picks that should only be used for recreational purposes. In no way does The Informer, my family, or anyone who believes in Tim Tebow --condone breaking of the law. Seriously, please do not use the picks below to wrongfully make thousands of millions of dollars this season. That would be immoral and illegal.)

Anyways, which means please stop interrupting me with legalities while I am drinking my Natties, now that we all know the basics about why we are here: How about we get to The Informer's Week 1 2018 NFL Picks?

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (PK)

Here is The Informer's proof of Thursday Night pick Tweet:

Im taking the Falcons (Pick Em) and the the 1st Half Under 22.5 #TNFBets #FootballIsBack #FlyFalconsFly

— The Informer (@therealinformer) September 6, 2018

Pick: Falcons (Loss) 1st Half Under (Win)

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings (-6)

Is it just me, or does it just feel right starting year 11 off with a fun "Randy Moss is a 1st ballot NFL Hall of Famer fact" that involves both the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers?

Did you know that 20 years ago to the day on September 9th, 1998 the great Randy Moss debuted as an NFL rookie catching four passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns (both  passes from Brad Johnson) while leading the Minnesota Vikings to a 31-7 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Did you also know that six years ago to the day on September 9th, 2012 the great Randy Moss played in his last opening day game catching four passes for 47 yards and one touchdown (from Alex Smith) while leading the San Francisco 49ers to a 30-22 victory over the Green Bay Packers?

"Hey Informer why in the hell are you still blabbing on about Randy Moss? The dude has literally zero to do with this game on Sunday. Could you please for once in your miserable life just do your job and tell us who is going win the Jimmy G vs the former Washington quarterback match up?"

Does that mean you all don't want to hear about how 11 years ago to the day on September 9th, 2007 the great Randy Moss debuted with the New England Patriots catching nine passes for 181 yards and one touchdown while setting the tone for the Pats to become the only team in NFL history to finish a regular season 16-0?

No?

Are you sure?

Okay, fine. If you insist here is my breakdown of the present day 49ers-Vikings game: I am taking the 49ers because Jimmy G has covered in all five of his starts as a 49ers QB so I am going to ride his covering trend until he bucks me.

Pick: 49ers (+6.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns.

F***!!!

Am I really gonna pick the Browns?

Would someone please go get me 6-12 more Natties?

#ThisCantBeReal

Pick: Browns (+3.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-2)

Here are five "Bold" Informer predictions involving these two teams:

1.  AJ Green will have 1500+ yards and at least 12 TDs this season.
2.  Andrew Luck will finish Top 5 MVP, and Top 3 fantasy quarterbacks. 
3. Joe Mixon is going to rush for more than 1,300 yards. 
4. Both of these teams are going to go over their Vegas projected win totals (Over/Under for each team is 7 wins).
5. Both of these teams are going to make the Playoffs this season. 

As far as Sunday goes, I'm taking the points because I am not allowed to bet against AJ Green unless I know it is a sure fire win and that I am going to make loads of money doing it. On Sunday, as much as I love having Andrew back, there is nothing is surefire about Luck's first start in almost 2 years; therefore give me the points and lets hope for a Sunday afternoon shootout.

Pick: Bengals (+2)

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

If I watch a single minute of this "2nd floor of a big city apartment fire" the NFL is trying to pass of as an actual abortion; I swear I will give up drinking Natty Light for at least six to seven hours.

Of course, since I am not going to watch this apartment fire, think about this apartment fire, or make any other remarks about this 2nd floor of a big city apartment fire: I figured now would be the perfect time to hand out the Week 1 Blimpies Best meme of the Week:

#ClassicSmokingJayWinsTheInternetAgain.

Pick: Ravens (-7.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants (+3)

Speaking of not caring . . . I don't care if he did almost beat Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game; the gambling rules still clearly state that a person should never, not even if their is a big city 2nd floor apartment fire, bet on Blake Bortles as a road favorite.

Again, I did not make these rules, I just follow them because I like being right.

Pick: New York Giants (+3)

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-6)

"Hey Informer what are these so called rules you speak of?"

You know what? That is a very good question. Sometimes I forget that new people may be reading this blog and not have a full grasp on "Informer drunken gambling 101". Let me try to help y'all understand better by listing 10 of the most hard-fast rules that I follow every single time I place a wager (unless of course I have a "feeling"):

1. Never bet Blake Bortles as a road favorite.
2. Always bet Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Primetime.
3. Always bet the 1st half under in primetime.
4. When two shitty teams are playing, take the points.
5. The Browns suck and only a drunken idiot who wants to lose all his money would bet them against Ben Roethlisberger who is 11-2 as a starter in Browns stadium.
6. The Rams are going to be great, bet them while you can.
7. When in doubt, take the best quarterback.
8. Did I mention Tom Brady?
9. If 80% of the public is betting one way, you bet the other way. Don't ask questions.
10. And finally, when all else fails, get "Jay Cutler Wasted" and bet with reckless abandon.

Pick: Patriots (-6)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans Saints (-10)

I am taking the New Orleans Saints in all five of my NFL survivor polls. Which of course means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to some how win on Sunday. Which also of course means a smart person -- and if you are reading this blog we know you are the smartest of the smart - - would grab the 10 points and laugh their way to the bookies office.

Pick: Tampa Bay (+10)

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+1)

If someone said "Hey Informer what do you love more: Derrick Henry or Blimpies?" I would obviously say Blimpies. But I am not gonna lie, I would have to think about it for a split second. That is how great I think the beast from Alabama is going to be this year. In fact, I have so much faith in Henry rushing for 1,700 yards this season that I am going to make the Tennessee Titans my Week 1 Lion King Lock of the Week.

Lock it in.

Pick: LKLOTW Titans (-1)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

Q: What did the Chargers defense say when the Chiefs quarterback fell on top of them?

A: Get off of me Mahomes . . . #

With literally zero context behind it, this joke slays me every time.

#LongLiveMahomes

Pick: Chiefs (+3.5)

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-3)

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

As the rules say, when in doubt always take the team with the better quarterback.

Pick: Seahawks (+3) Panthers (-3) & Washington (-1.5)

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-7)

Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . .Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . .Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . AARON RODGERS AT HOME IN PRIMETIME!!!

I hope I am not being to subtle with this one.

Pick: Packers (-7)

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (-6.5)

A New York Jets rookie quarterback on the road during Monday Night Football in his first ever NFL game and he is giving less than a touchdown? Am I being Punk'd right now? Is Ashton Kutcher running a prank on me? Do people remember Punk'd? Or who Ashton Kutcher is? How many questions about Ashton Kutcher is too many before the readers stop reading this blog? Is there any chance in hell there are still people reading? Should I post a link to a Pam Anderson having marital relations video just to see if anyone is still here? Do people still watch videos like that? Hell, do people still know who Pam Anderson is? Maybe I should go with a Paris Hilton video? Then again, do people still know who Paris Hilton is?

"Dear Gawd Informer . . . Please no more questions. Just give us your pick and wrap this thing up."

Okay, as I said above, I am taking the Lions (-6.5) because I don't think Ashton Kutcher exists anymore. Which means there is no way this is a prank. Instead it is a gift sent straight from the Gambling Tebow's to make us all rich.

Pick: Lions (-6.5)

Los Angeles Rams @ Oakland Raiders (+4)

Follow the rules and bet the Rams now before it is too late.

Pick: Rams (-4)

That is all folks. Merry NFL Sunday Funday Christmas. May your day be filled with winning parlays, Natty Lights and all the Blimpies money can buy.

See you next week.

The Informer's 2018 Fantasy Football Preview: Auction Draft #1

Last night I took part in my first 2018 fantasy football auction draft (league price was $40) on Yahoo sports dot com. It was a 10-team "Super Flex" league where a person starts a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, SUPER FLEX (which means you can use a QB, RB, WR or TE) and a Defense. In this draft each team was able to fill their roster (9 starters & 7 reserves) using a $200 dollar budget.

Now I know what everyone is thinking right now: "Informer no one gives a damn about your fantasy football teams."

And to that I say, "I totally agree and understand."

But that is not why I am sharing my team with you today. No, I am sharing my team, and the reasons behind why I drafted said team, in order to try and prepare you the reader for your upcoming drafts.

The thinking is that you will get a chance to see the mistakes, or great picks, that I made and when it comes time for your fantasy draft you will be able to learn from my experiences to help you build the perfect fantasy football team.

Furthermore, the reason I pointed out that this was a "$40 money league" is because I wanted everyone reading to know that this was an actual draft with real money at stake and not some mock draft where three people didn't show up and two guys bid $150 on Kirk Cousins because they graduated from Michigan State. I have used those types of drafts in the past to write my previews and it always seems like I end up not giving you the readers a true reflection of how a draft is going to play out in real life.

So again, while you are reading about my team please keep in mind that these are the real results, from a real draft, with real people and real money at stake.

Okay, now that we all agree this draft was realer (Is realer a word?) than an episode of WWE Monday Night Raw, here are the results from The Informer's 1st official 2018 Fantasy Football team.

QB: Andrew Luck ($9) Russell Wilson ($27) Lamar Jackson ($1)

The first thing everyone needs to remember is that this is a "start two quarterbacks each week" league which means it was absolutely critical that I was able to draft two elite quarterbacks. So getting Luck and Wilson on the same team was a win. Now, with that said; the problem with having Luck and Wilson on this team is the fact that I did not want to spend $27 on Russell Wilson.

You see what happened was I got too cute trying to run up the bid for Wilson (a classic auction draft strategy gone wrong) that I accidentally ended up spending $27 for one guy when I could have had any combo off Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousin, Philip Rivers, etc . . . for less than $27 dollars.

Basically, I could have had a roster of three elite QBs, but by messing around with the bid I ended up blowing all my money on Wilson and now my only backup quarterback in a two QB league is literally a back up quarterback.

In other words: "I done f-up trying to keep it real" and now I have to pray to Tebow that Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold or Josh "The Torpedo Missile" Allen turn out to be real NFL quarterbacks or else my chances of winning this league may be gone before training camp ends.

RB: Joe Mixon ($30) Derrick Henry ($17) Nick Chubb ($1)

The goal going into the draft was to get a three RB combination of Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon. So getting two of the four guys counts as a sort of win. But the reality is I ended up not bidding on some other quality backs trying to get my guys and that left a glaring hole in my team.

On the bright side though, it is only July 30th, which means my strategy has changed from getting three of "these" four guys to "I sure as hell hope there is some fourth round running back who turns into Kareem Hunt this August so I can pick him up off of waivers and complete my team".

I admit, it is not the best strategy, but as of now it is the only one I have so I am rolling with it.

WR: Julio Jones ($47) AJ Green ($37) Josh Gordon ($11) Cory Davis ($4) DeVante Parker ($1) Cooper Kuup ($1) Randall "Corn On The" Cobb ($1) Calvin Ridley ($1)

The truth of the matter is I have too many WRs on the roster. I know that. But if I am being totally honest, I would say that I just drafted the best WR trio in the history of fantasy football, and I did it for under $100 bucks.

That folks is called winning.

TE: Evan Ingram ($11)

Ingram was listed as a $22 dollar value heading into the draft, so getting him at half price was a complete steal. These are the types of deals you have to be ready to pounce on in order to have great fantasy auction drafts. And last night that is exactly what I did.

Defense: Denver Broncos ($1)

It's a defense. I paid a dollar for them. That pretty much sums up the thought process behind getting the Von Miller's.

IN CONCLUSION:

If healthy and everyone plays I have great upside guys (Henry, Mixon & Ingram all year 2 players looking to make the leap), I have the fantasy veterans who I know will deliver (AJ, Julio & Wilson) and I have one guy who could win me the league for me if he returns to MVP form (Andrew Luck).

So overall I am happy with how things turned out. With that said, I am man enough to admit that with this being the first draft of the year -- and also being the first time I did a fantasy auction draft for a 2-QB league - - I made too many mistakes to call this a 100% success (I will be having nightmares for months about blowing $27 bucks on Wilson when I could have had Cam for $17).

In the end I don't think the mistakes made will keep me from winning my league, but they are mistakes that I will learn from and hopefully can avoid making again during my quest to help you the readers draft the perfect 2018 NFL Fantasy team.

The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks: Week 3

After picking 11-5 against the spread in Week 2 of the 2015 NFL Season, The Informer is once again ready to make the people money. So with John Football Clipboard hand gestures on the mind, let’s crack those Natties and get right to Week 3 of The Informer’s 2015 NFL Picks Challenge.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)

Here is the deal folks; only an absolute moron would pick Kirk Cousins on the road in Prime-time against an 0-2 Giants team that was playing for their season. So if you know someone who was actually dumb enough to bet Kirk "INT" Cousins last night, you have The Informer’s permission to kick that d-bag squarely in the gonads.

Trust me, they deserve it.

For everyone's information . .. The Informer is taking Washington +3.5 tonight and also riding the first half under #FirstHalfUnderIs6-1

— The Informer (@therealinformer) September 24, 2015

Before we wrap this game up, here is The Informer’s Week 3 stat of the day: Did you know through his first 15 NFL games the great Randy Moss had 64 receptions for 1,281 yards and 16 TDs (an NFL record for TDs through 15 games)? Did you also know through his first 15 NFL games the "ODB" Odell Beckham Jr. has 110 receptions for 1,574 yards (an NFL record for receptions & yards through 15 games) and 14 TDs?

Just saying; enjoy what you are watching in New York, because right now it is pure greatness in the making.

Pick: Skins (+3.5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ ST LOUIS RAMS (+1.5)

Speaking of greatness: Antonio Brown is on pace for 144 receptions 2,624 yards and 16 TDs. Now it would be absurd to think Brown can keep this up (164 yards a game is ridiculous), but if he is able to keep up a semi-pace – like say 120 yards a games – than he would become the first NFL receiver to reach 2,000 yards in a single season. Again, it is early in the season, but with this Pittsburgh offense, and the greatness of Brown, it is not out of the realm of possibility, right?

As for the gambling portion of this game; since the line is a tossup, The Informer has no choice but to bet against 85% of the public.

Pick: Rams (+1.5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5)

The last time Adrian Peterson played the San Diego Chargers at home was in 2007 and this happened . . .



So yea . . . The Informer is betting Adrian Peterson on Sunday.

Pick: Vikings (-2.5)

TAMPA BAY @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5)

Do we really live in a world where Ryan Mallet and the Houston Texans are favored by 6.5 points even though they are playing without Arian Foster and possibly DeAndre Hopkins (he was undergoing concussion treatment on Thursday)?

Give The Informer the points and the rookie quarterback on the road against J.J. Watt. I mean, what could possibly go wrong?

Pick: Tampa Bay (+6.5)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (+2)

Gambling rule #700: If the spread is less than three and you have the chance to bet against Brandon Weeden –YOU ALWAYS BET AGAINST BRANDON WEEDEN!!!

Pick: Falcons (-2)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK JETS (-2.5)

The Informer is going to lose so much money this season betting against the New York Jets #EventuallyRyanFitzpatrickWillRealizeHeIsRyanFitzpatrick.

Pick: Eagles (+2.5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTEHRS (-4.5)

Shhhhh . . . Be very very quiet. We don’t want to let Vegas know the Panthers and Cam Newton, despite playing without wide receivers, are actually a really good team.

Pick: Panthers (-4.5)

CINNCINATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5)

There is no way on Tebow's Green Earth that the red headed gunslinger is going to make history by handing the Ravens their first 0-3 start in the history of Harbaugh, right?

Pick: Bengals (+2.5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5)

Things The Informer would rather do than have to watch this game: Excersice; eat right; stop drinking Natties; check my cholesterol; shave my you know what parts with a Rambo knife; give up Blimpies; smoke crack with Lawrence Taylor (allegedly); trade places with Andy Dufrane during that time when "The Sisters" took a liking to him; break into Edward Norton's house in the middle of the night; cross the streams; have unprotected carnal relations with Jenny Gump; take a right hook from Mike Tyson; stab my eye out with a soldering iron; drink milk from a saucer; watch every episode of Keeping Up with the Kardashians; and finally, bet against 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning in Prime-time.

In other words, this game sucks donkey balls.

Pick: Raiders (+3.5)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)

The Informer has no idea which 49ers team is going to show up. Is it the team that played flawless "run and play defense first" football in Week 1? Or will it be the dumpster fire that got boat-raced out of Pittsburgh in Week 2?

Since we can't predict which 49ers team we are getting, The Informer has to go with the surest team in the NFL. Also, there is the whole never, even if there is a fire, bet against Bruce Arians thing.

Pick: Cardinals (-6.5)

(The Informer after the pick stat – Last week, after his first career three TD game, Larry Fitzgerald became just the 10th receiver to join the 12,000 yard 90 TD club. The "Original Predator" is now forever linked with; Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Chris Carter, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Tim Brown, Issac Bruce, Tony Gonzalez and the great Steve Largent.)

INDANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (+3)

The Informer: "Hey Andrew Luck, will you please eat a Snickers?"

Andrew Luck: "Why?"

The Informer: "Because you play like a drunk Jay Cutler when you are hungry."

Seriously, Andrew Luck has been "Jay Cutler" awful through two games this season. Don’t worry though, that trend is not going to continue. It was just a byproduct of the greatest young QB in NFL history getting to know his new teammates (Frank Gore & Andre Johnson), some horrible "Pep Hamilton System" play calling (Stop trying to be a run first pound the ball offense . . . For the love of Tebow you have freaking Andrew Luck as your quarterback . . . F***ING USE HIM!!!) and of course the fact the Colts have played two of the 10 best defenses in the NFL.

Going 0-2 under those conditions could happen to anyone. That all stops this week though as Luck rights the ship and starts the march to his fourth straight 11 win season.

Pick: Colts (-3)

CHICAGO BEARS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14.5)

What a dilemma. Should The Informer follow the "two touchdown underdog rule" or the "always bet against Jimmy Clausen on the road against a desperate 0-2 Seattle team during the same week that Cam Chancellor returns to the lineup no matter how big the spread is rule"?

This really is a hard one.

"Hey Informer, did you hear that unnamed sources have confirmed that HGH sales (allegedly) have reached an all-time high in the Seattle area this past week?"

No figment of The Informer’s imagination, I had not heard that obviously concrete fact (allegedly) about the Seattle area. Talk about a game changer. Now, are we sure it was HGH and not just over the counter non performance enhancing Adderall so Seattle could study better?

Either way, if Seattle is going to be laser-focused in their home opener than there really is only one way to bet this game.

Pick: Seattle (-14.5)

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3)

Ace Ventura, would you like to say a few words about this game?



Well said Ace.

As for the pick, The Informer is backing the home team while preparing for a push (this is going to be a last second field goal game).

Pick: Dolphins (-3)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5)

The NFL gambling rules clearly state whenever a team is getting two touchdowns, you bet the dog. You don’t ask questions, you just do it. And since The Informer already ignored this rule once, there is no choice but to back the Jags on the road against Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

"Holy f***ing s**t Informer . . . Will you please re-read that last sentence. You just said to bet Blake Bortles on the road against Tom Brady during Tom Brady's 'I am pissed at the NFL and going to win the 2015 NFL MVP Award in spite season.' Seriously, picking the Jags this week maybe the dumbest most idiotic thing you have ever done. Take it back right now before I have to threaten your life you fat-fat moron."

Listen, for the bottom of The Informer's black liver "I apologize" and take it all back. The Informer had one too many Bortles & James wine coolers and one thing led to another. I know that things were said and for that "I am sorry." It was wrong and it will never happen again. The Informer promises. And so we are all clear, there is no way in the bluest of blue hells The Informer is going to bet against Tom Brady this weekend. The above sentence was one drunken mistake. Nothing more.

Pick: Patriots (-13.5)

DENVER BRONCOS @ DETROIT LIONS (+3)

Everyone say it with me . . .

5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME !!!

Somebody please get Simba on the phone, because The Informer just found his Lion King Lock of the Week.

Pick: LKLOTW Donkeys (-3)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)

Everyone say it with me . . .

2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME!!!

Pick: Packers (-6.5)

Have a great Week 3 everyone. May it be filled with Blimpies, Natty Lights and enough winning parlays to buy dem apple bottom jeans and the boots with the fur.



#NFLPicks #FloRida #WinnerWinnerBlimpiesDinner

The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks: Week 1

Can you BOLIEVE it is year eight of The Informer writing this NFL Picks column? Eight freaking years man? I guess the old saying really is true, "time totally disappears when you are an alcoholic."

Natty Light abuse aside, one thing that happened over the course of the past eight seasons is The Informer has learned a lesson or two about NFL gambling.

Whether it is Vegas never loses (see New England-Pittsburgh push if you need evidence of that), bookies are not your best friend, parlays are a sucker bet, teasers are the devil, or that you never -- not even if there is a fire -- bet against Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in prime-time; The Informer has been made a wiser gambler by picking every game each week.

Of course, since The Informer is a wiser man from these past eight years, he has actually developed a set of NFL gambling rules that he never always follows in order to maximize the potential on fake illegal wagers he places.

These are the so called "golden rules" The Informer has used to pick over 52% against the spread four of the last five seasons (history shows they work).

These are also the "golden rules" The Informer wants to share with his reader (yes singular) today so that we can all enjoy in the spoils that comes from making fake illegal wagers with some dude named Fat Tuna Fish.

So with that in mind, before we get to the Week 1 picks, here are the rules . . .

Rule #1

As we mentioned above you never bet against Tom Brady or 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning in Prime-time (If they are playing each other in prime-time take the home quarterback).

Rule #2

Be careful against the home underdog. Unless of course that dog is named Jacksonville.

Rule #3

Bet the first half under. Don’t question the why, just do it.

Rule #4

If 80% of the public is betting one way, you should bet the other. Again, there is a reason Vegas builds Casinos, and it is not because the public is good at gambling.

Rule #5

Don’t lose money betting a crappy quarterback. The Informer is talking about guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Texans QB, and whatever dumpster fire they start in Cleveland.

Rule #6

West Coast teams flying to the East Coast for a noon game have a hard time covering the spread.

Rule #7

Same thing goes for the team coming off of a huge victory the week before (this is called a letdown game and they are real).

Rule #8

If the spread is 14 or higher, always take the dog.

Rule #9

If two garbage teams are playing always take the points.

Rule #10

When it comes to Week 1; throw all of the rules out because it is going to be a clusterf*** of mass gambling proportions that nobody except Vegas can accurately predict (Week 1 is by far the hardest week to handicap).

Okay . . . Now that we have all of the rules covered: D.J. could you please hit The Informer’s music so we can f****** gamble?



Dear Lord, no one wants to here the damn "Duck Song" before they gamble. Come on D.J. you can do better than that.



Yes beer is good, we can agree there, but could we maybe play something a little more upbeat and joyful? You know, some Hammer, or Taylor Swift? Hell, you can even play that Wizzard Khalifa guy. The Informer doesn't care, just put a funky-fresh beat on so we can get this show on the road.



Holy f**k!!! Is that Hanson? Just wow . . . This column has officially reached an all-time low. Will everyone just please crack's open their Natties and we will pretend this opening never happened?

Does that sound good to y'all?

Good . . . Great . . . Grand . . .Wonderful!!!

And on that note, ladies and gentlemen welcome to Week 1 of The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks Column.

As always, I hope you all enjoy #MMMbop.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-7)

Since 2011 the Green Bay Packers are 9-1 (including playoffs) against the Chicago Bears. In those games the Packers have won by seven or more points eight of the nine times. Furthermore; last season the Packers outscored Chicago 93-31.

Do you all see what The Informer is getting at here?

"Hey Informer, did you know that 86% of the public is currently betting the Packers? Isn’t that one of your rules? To always bet against the big public bet? Also, did you know that 15 of the 30 people in your NFL suicide poll picked the Packers on Sunday? Do you see what I am getting at?"

Soooo . . . The figment of my imagination is saying that the smart bet is on Jay Cutler and the Bears because this is the way to obvious game that keeps hotel lights on in Vegas? Okay, that is a fair point, but the figment of my imagination is over looking one key thing about this pick: There is no way in the bluest of blue hells The Informer is going to bet Jay Cutler against the Packers.

Pick: Packers (-7)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-1)

The Informer swears he is done arguing against everyone who thinks that 2014 J.J. Watt had the greatest single season any football player has ever had in the 96-year history of the NFL.

You all win.

After the season he had, J.J. Watt should have won the MVP, been named President of the Untied States and been allowed to marry Linsey Lohan (is Linsey Lohan still a thing? Cameron Diaz? Who is the hot chick these days?)

With that concession being made, there is one question The Informer would like to ask: If Watt’s season was so great, what does that say about Justin Houston and his NFL leading 22 sacks in 2014?

I mean if 20.5 sacks is the greatest ever, what does that mean for 22? Does it mean we should retroactively go back and make Justin Houston the MVP instead of Watt? Just saying, didn’t Justin help the Chiefs not make the playoffs the same exact way Watt helped the Texans (that answer is yes)? So then why is Watt the greatest player ever and Houston is not? And why does it bother me so damn much that people are anointing J.J. Watt the greatest thing since sliced Blimpies?

Okay, so that was more like four questions, but you get the point. Justin Houston is a beast on defense. J.J. Watt is a beast on defense. And neither guy should have been the 2014 NFL MVP.

End of weekly "J.J. Watt is not the greatest ever" rant.

As for the game, The Informer is going with the Chiefs because they have a reliable quarterback, Jamaal Charles and a great defense while the Texans have Brian Hoyer and Alfred Blue.

Also, if you can bet game props, put some dough on Jeremy Maclin catching a touchdown. Something tells me the Chiefs (who did not throw a single TD pass to a WR last year) are going to try and get Maclin involved early and often on Sunday.

Pick: Chiefs (+1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW YORK JETS (-3.5)

This game sucks. In the words of Forrest Gump, "that is all I have to say about that."

Pick: Browns (+3.5)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BUFFALO BILLS (+2.5)

Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor versus 2015 NFL MVP Andrew Luck?

Wow, talk about a toss-up. No really, The Informer is totally torn on this one. Sure, Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the NFL, but the Bills are starting Tryod "The Cannon" Taylor. Think about that for a second, the dude's middle name is "The Cannon". How can this guy not cover 2.5 points against a team The Informer thinks will be a Super Bowl contender in 2015?

Seriously, is there anything scarier in Vegas than hearing the words "Tyrod 'The Cannon' Taylor is getting 2.5 points against Andrew Luck?"

To answer the next question: Yes The Informer is just f******* with you. The Colts are obviously this week's Lion King Lock of the Week.

Lock and load Ramathorn.

Pick: LKLOTW Colts (-2.5)

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3.5)

If gambling these past eight years has taught The Informer anything, it is when there are three sure fire road favorites to choose from (Colts, Packers & Dolphins), you can bank on something weird happening causing at least one of the teams to not cover.

So the question now becomes: What should The Informer do? Back a worthless Kirk Cousins against The informer’s favorite breakout player of 2015 --Ryan "RT1" Tannehill? Go back to the top of the article and change the pick so that he is either betting against Aaron Rodgers (and 86% of the public) or Andrew Luck while siding with Jay Cutler or Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor? Or should The Informer completely ignore all of his own rules and put Tannehill, Luck and Rodgers in a three-teamer that will pay for my kid’s college?

Honestly, if you have been reading The Informer for the past eight seasons you know exactly where this is heading #FreeCollegeForEveryone

Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3)

Instead of talking about this game, how about we share some funny "Patriots are cheaters memes"?

There is this one . . .

And this one . . .

Then there is Classic Mel . . .

Shirtless Tom Brady hugging a football?

Then there is this one . . .

This one is really funny . . .

And last but not least . . .

LOL . . . The HGHawks. What a great meme.

Pick: Jags (+3)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS (+4)

Speaking of the HGHawks, The Informer does not care that Seattle has not covered the last three times they went to St. Louis; they will win and cover this game. Watch for a huge two TD performance from the HGHawks newest tight end addition.

Pick: Seahawks (-4)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ TAMPA BAY (-3)

Number one on the list of things The Informer never thought he would say: "I can’t freaking wait to watch the Titans-Bucs game on Sunday".

That is not a lie. The Informer is actually excited to watch the Mariota-Winston showdown. It should be a fun one.

When it comes to betting this game, The Informer is backing the Titans because of their defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. No really, did you know that since 1995 Dick LeBeau is 26-3 versus rookie QBs? Now, The Informer has never claimed to be a rocket Scientologist, but even I know that a 26-3 record is impressive.

So good luck on Sunday Jameis. The Informer will be rooting for you, but he will be betting on Tennessee blue.

Pick: Titans (+3)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3)

75% of the public betting against Drew Brees? The Informer will take them odds.

Pick: Saints (+3)

DETROITS LIONS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3)

Who is up for a game of let’s compare Calvin, Randy and Jerry’s first eight seasons?

Calvin Johnson: 643 receptions, 10,405 yards, 74 TDs and six 1,000 yard seasons

Jerry Rice: 610 receptions, 10,273 yards, 103 TDs and seven 1,000 yard seasons

Randy Moss: 634 receptions, 10,147, 98 TDs and seven 1,000 yard seasons

In the immortal word's of Bill Walton, "Who's better?"

Pick: Lions (+3)

CINCINATTI BENGALS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3)

The Informer really wanted to pick the Raiders in this game, because contrary to popular opinion the Raiders are going to be vastly improved this year, but this is Week 1; which means The Informer has to take the Bengals and the red-headed gunslinger because they are the better team.

Pick: Bengals (-3)

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (+4.5)

Last season 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning threw for 4,727 yards (the second most in his career) despite not having any arm strength, not being able to play in the cold and having a torn quadriceps.

Last season 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning threw 39 touchdowns (behind only Andrew Luck who had 40) despite the fact that the National Media said he was too old to still play at a high level.

And finally, last season was the eleventh straight year Manning finished with a completion percentage above 65% percent despite the fact that he had four neck surgeries three years ago and has since had no feelings in his fingertips.

What is The Informer’s point?

Pretty simple; the 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning would not have came back to play this season if he was not still going to be Peyton 5x NFL MVP freaking Manning.

So to all of the people who are again saying (this will be the fourth straight year of the Manning is done rhetoric) that this is the year Manning dies; please stop. Manning is still going to be good for 4,000 yards, 30+ TD passes and a "laser-rocket arm" while leading a loaded Broncos team to their fourth straight AFC West title.

Pick: Broncos (-4.5)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5)

Scoring machine Dez Bryant going head to head with Odell Beckham Jr., aka the man that NFL physics forget. Talk about giving a guy a "Mike's friend from Growing Pains in sweatpants".

As for the gambling portion of this contest, The Informer is going to back the Giants because this game is going to come down to a Cowboys last second field goal. So if The Informer is right, that means the Cowboys will win, but will not cover the 6.5 points.

That folks is called standard gambling math.

Pick: Giants (+6.5)




PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ ATLANTA FALCONS (+3)

The Informer really likes the Philadelphia Eagles this season. If Sam Bradford can stay healthy, this is going to be a really, really, good team. So of course, since The Informer absolutely loves the Eagles this year, he is going to pick against them Week 1.

For those that don't know, The Informer is a moron.

Pick: Falcons (+3)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5)

Other than the Philadelphia Eagles, there is not another team getting more love around the nation than the Minnesota Vikings. With the return of the 10,000 yard man, the growth of Ted Football and a new stadium on the horizon; the sky is the limit for the 2015 Minnesota Vikings.

Well, The Informer would like to see it before he starts giving points on the road to a team that won seven games in 2014.

Pick: 49ers (+2.5)

That is a wrap folks. Please enjoy Week 1. May your Sunday be filled with winning parlays, cases of Natty and all the Blimpies a stomach can handle.

Now D.J. let's try this one last time: Will you please hit the dance music and take us home?



#FOOTBALLISBACKBABY!!! #RAISEUP!!!

(The Informer note - Just so everyone knows, The Question will be back next week. Do to some scheduling issues we were not able to get his picks edited into the article. Don't worry though, to keep things on the up and up (wouldn't want him to pretend he went undefeated in Week 1) I will post his picks on my twitter before kickoff Sunday. Mahalo.)

2015 NFL Season Prop Bets & Thursday Night Pick

After months of talking about deflated balls, courtroom dramas, overbearing commissioners, tainted legacies and all the other garbage that comes with the offseason; we can finally talk about actual football.

No longer will we have to spend endless nights listening to pundits explain why it is wrong for rookies to have a fall guy. No longer will we have to read 10,000 word stories about scandals from the year 2000. And best of all, no longer will we have to listen to "talking head blowhards" debate whether or not Tim Tebow is better than RG3-13.

Nope. All of the garbage is done. For the next five months the only thing that matters is the actual football being played on Sunday.

Whether it is Andrew Luck making the MVP leap; Peyton Manning proving he is still the 5x NFL MVP; Adrian Peterson canceling Christmas; Ryan "RT1" Tannehill becoming elite; Calvin Johnson regaining his spot as the best WR in the game; Jay Cutler causing a five month long depression in the Windy City; J.J. Watt; Rex Ryan trying to end the Buffalo Bills' playoff drought; Khalil Mack trying to bring respect to Oakland; Mariota vs. Winston; Tom Brady vs. the World; Odell Beckham Jr. defying the laws of NFL gravity; or Alex Smith trying to game manage his team to a Super Bowl; it is finally time to stop the speculating and start watching the storylines play out on the field.

Oh yea . . . And did The Informer mention the sweet-sweet return of the parlay, the teaser, the prop bet, the first half under, Peyton Manning in prime-time, home underdogs, long odds, short odds, money lines, points spreads, hedging, miracle covers and betting against Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and whomever is starting for the Cleveland Browns?

Speaking of gambling; since the NFL season is kicking off in less then 12 hours, for today’s article The Informer thought we would break down all of the "fake" prop bets he made for this season, before picking tonight’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots.

So with that in mind, let’s stop all the jibber-jabber and start the gambling.

(The Informer note – As always, please keep in mind that these are all hypothetical wagers that should not be taken seriously unless you live in the great state of Las Vegas where gambling is legal. Furthermore; it needs to be noted that The Informer in no way condones, or advises, anyone to sign up for an illegal offshore Caribbean gambling website like RealBet, SportsBook, USABets, TopBet, Bovada, or take part in any other activity where a person could make illegal wagers. Doing so is not only illegal, but it is considered a mortal sin in most of the world’s religions. So again, what you are about to read is for entertainment purposes only. Thank you and enjoy.)
 
2015 NFL SEASON PROP BETS

Andrew Luck over 34 TD passes

This is actually The Informer’s Lion King Lock of the Year. In other words, "Lock and load Ramathorn."

Drew Brees over 4,600 passing yards

Drew Brees has passed for over 4,600 yards five straight years and six of the last seven. In the world of gambling that is what we like to call a trend. And no, losing a tight end who had less than 1,000 yards receiving last season does not scare The Informer one bit.

Adrian Peterson over 1,250 yards rushing

Do you all remember the last time people told Adrian Peterson he would not be the same? Yea . . . So does The Informer.

A.J. Green over 1,200 yards receiving yards

The Informer likes this bet because A.J. "The Sickness" Green is about to become just the second guy in the history of the NFL to finish with at least 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first five seasons; which makes this a decent prop bet.

For those wondering, the great Randy Moss is currently the only guy to ever accomplish this feat.

Calvin Johnson over 10 TD catches

"The Shredder" is going to regain his title as the best in the business by racking up touchdowns at an alarming rate.

Julio Jones over 1,300 yards

The Informer made this fake bet before Julio Jones signed his new contract under the assumption that Jones was about to have a great "contract season". With that said; only 1,300 yards for Julio seems like a steal of a bet.

Dez Bryant over 11.5 TD catches

Did you know that there is not a single player in the NFL who can say they have caught more touchdowns (56) than Dez Bryant since the former Oklahoma State WR entered the NFL in 2010?

Ryan Tannehill over 4,000 yards passing

Ryan Tannehill is going to have a monster season so you might as well win money watching him do it.

Derek Carr over 21 TD passes

Derek Carr had 21 TD passes as a rookie even though he played the entire season without one single receiver who would actually be considered an NFL caliber player. So thinking he will have at least that many as a second year player after the Raiders added Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper is not that much of a stretch.

Ameer Abdullah to win ROY (+1300)

Marcus Mariota to win ROY (+600)

The Informer likes both of these guys a lot. And with long odds, these are lottery tickets that could pay well in the end.

Tampa Bay wins the NFC South (+555)

The Informer was drunk when he made this bet.

Arizona (+500), San Francisco (+1100) and Rams (+750) to win NFC West

The thinking here is that the Super Bowl hangover curse is a real thing and that Seattle, after four straight years of winning, is due for an "everything goes wrong" type of season. So if everything does go wrong in Seattle this season, that means The Informer wins money. And if it doesn’t then The Informer will have another excuse to hate the HGHawks.

Texans under 8.5 wins (+110)
 
Ask anyone in the National media and they will tell you that J.J. Watt had the greatest season in the history of football last year. And you know what? The Texans still barely won nine games. So the thinking here is that Houston will be worse thanks to the facts that they lost Andre Johnson (a future Hall of Famer), they have an injured Arian Foster, they don’t have an NFL caliber starting QB and Watt – who again had the greatest season in the 96 year NFL history a year ago – is due to come back down to Earth at least a little. Add that all up, and it feels like they could be a half game worse than a season ago.

Denver over 10.5 wins (+110)

All Peyton Manning does is win 11 football games and the AFC West every year.

Skins under 6.5 wins (-110)

Is the Friday before Week 1 to early to mark this bet as a "W"?

Colts over 11 wins (-110)

Andrew Luck has won at least 11 games every year he has played in the NFL. So at worst, The Informer gets a push here.

Lions over 8.5 wins (+110)

The Informer made this bet before looking at the Lions brutal schedule (yikes). With that said; if Calvin stays healthy, Stafford continues to improve (he is only 27 years old) and Ameer fills the Reggie Bush roll then this team will be in position to give The Informer’s family a happy Christmas.

Panthers under 8.5 wins (-110)

Same bet as last year. Until Carolina can field an offense, they are not going to win nine games.

Atlanta to make playoffs (+150)

Lions to make playoffs (+160)

Atlanta plays in the NFC South, so no explanation needed there. As for Detroit, The Informer thinks they have the talent to reach the playoffs in back to back seasons for the first time since the Barry Sanders era (last time Detroit made back to back was the 1994 and 1995 seasons).

"Cheese and rice Informer, you made 23 prop bets? Dude you really need to think about calling 1-800 Bets-off. Seriously, you have problems."

Hey Mr. condescending judgmental figment of The Informer’s imagination: Don't you remember when The Informer said these were "fake illegal wagers"? Or how The Informer said "these are just some of the bets I would make if I had an 'illegal bookie' to make them through?"

Basically, don't you remember when the top of the article advised that this was being written for entertainment purposes only?

So how about you get off your non-gambling high horse and shut the hell up while The Informer gives the people free money?

Anyways, as The Informer was saying before he was rudely interrupted, now that we have the season long prop bets out of the way it is time to get to the main event.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7)

The Informer is going to say this one time and one time only: Other than making good natured jokes at the Patriots expense, there will be no mention of Deflategate, Spygate, WaterGate, Bill Gates or anything that rhymes with the word gate in this article ever again.

Why you ask?

Because The Informer does not give two sh*ts about deflated footballs and controversies that are over 10 years old. The cold hard truth is last season the Patriots beat the Colts by seven hundred points and then went on to beat a very good Seattle HGHawks squad in the Super Bowl. There is no conspiracy, cheating scandal, steroid use or rooms full of deflated footballs that would have changed those outcomes.

End of story.

Now, getting back to the game at hand, the Steelers are playing without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant tonight while the Patriots are playing with fully inflated balls, new spyware (allegedly) and a pissed off Tom Brady.

Doesn’t that sound like advantage New England?

Plus, there is the whole "New England is going to be playing in full F-U mode like it is 2007 all over again" thingy. Combine that with the fact that the home team is 12-1 since the NFL started doing these Thursday Night games, and The Informer is thinking the 66% of the public are about to win their first bet of the season.

Pick: New England (-7)

Have a great opening night everyone. Also, just so everyone is not worried, due to some scheduling issues and other factors beyond my control, the rest of The Informer’s Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted either Saturday or Sunday morning. So keep an eye out for those as opening Sunday inches closer and closer.