Welcome ladies and gentlemen to Season 12 of The Informer’s NFL Picks blog. For those of you that are new here, my name is The Informer and I will be your host for the duration of the 2019 NFL Season.
Now, before we get to the Week 1 picks, I would like to share a few reasons as to why it would be beneficial to your well being for you to read this blog each and every week.
Here goes:
- Nine of the past 11 seasons I have finished over 50% against the spread.
- In 2018, The Informer’s picks handed out 10 winning weeks, three break even weeks and only four losing weeks.
- Also in 2018, The Informer finished with an overall record of 136-113-7 against the spread. This means if you would have bet $100 on every game I picked you would have finished up $2,230 on the season
- Lastly, I spend way too much time and energy watching football and writing this blog; so if you all read it every week it will make me feel like I am special. And we all know in 2019 that making someone feel special is the wokest thing a person can do.
(Remember These are steadfast rules that should never be broken unless you have a really strong gut feeling that the rule should be broken.)
- Double digit underdogs like to cover.
- If 80% of the bets are going one way, you need to zag the other way (there is a reason Vegas keeps building Casino’s and it’s not because the obvious bet keeps hitting)
- Don’t bet against Tom Brady unless he is playing in Miami. You hate winning bets. You think he is going to have one of his “bad” regular season games where the media starts the “he is to old” storyline. Or you like to throw away money.
- Be scared of home underdogs (unless said home dog is the Miami Dolphins).
- Don’t ever, not even if there is a fire, bet against Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady in Primetime.
- When in doubt bet the team with the better QB.
- Always take the points when two bad teams are playing.
- Seriously, the Miami Dolphins are gonna suck.
- The 1st half under in Primetime.
- No such thing as a stay away. Gotta bet everything and anything. The more bets you make the more chances you have to win all the money.
- And finally, Week 1 is an absolute crapshoot where anything and anything can and will happen. So be prepared for wild outcomes you did not see coming (because they are going to happen).
And on that note, here are Week 1 of The Informer’s 2019 NFL Picks. As always please remember to gamble with reckless abandon and absolutely zero regard for human life.
The Informer’s proof of pick Thursday Night Football tweet:
Packers +3 and 1st half under 23 #ThursdayNightFootball— The Informer (@therealinformer) September 5, 2019
Pick: Packers (+3)
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5)
I want everyone to know, if the Browns are awesome this year they will become my fourth favorite team behind AJ Green, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Of course, if they pull a Browns and are still the Cleveland Browns, you can go ahead and disregard this entire section.
Pick: Titans (+5.5)
Baltimore Ravens at a Miami Dolphins (+7)
Two fun facts about this game:
- The Baltimore Ravens have won three straight Week 1 games by a combined score of 80-10.
- 85% of the gambling public is betting the Baltimore Ravens against a team that has covered six straight Week 1 games.
So what should I do?
Follow the
In the end, I decided to follow my gut and bet the Ravens for the sole purpose that I don’t want to root for trash bets in Week 1.
I will say this though, people need to tread very carefully in their NFL wins/loss survivor polls. This is exactly the type of Week 1 game that goes south fast for those people who grab the "obvious" Week 1 team.
Pick: Ravens (-6.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
I think the Falcons are going to win this game, win the NFC South and make a run at the NFC Title game. So yea, I’ll be grabbing the points Week 1.
Pick: Falcons (+4)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3)
I’m actually really excited to watch Darnold vs “The Canon Rocket Missile” this week. But, since I’m running out of room, I am going to use this section to post the Blimpies Best meme of the week:
LOL . . . That’s a good one. #ROACFWATRWLMFO
(Translation - Rolling on a concrete floor with a throw rug while laughing my face off.)
Pick: Bills (+3)
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
Things I would rather do than bet the double-digit underdog Washington Redskins in Week 1:
Go on a diet. Tell my wife to calm down. Bet the 1st half over in Primetime. Start Mitch Trabanski in fantasy football. Drink Miller Lite. Give a random person on Twitter $20 for re-tweeting the link to this article. Watch a Paranormal Activities movies. Go into the Upside Down. Wear Antonio Brown's frozen cryo-chambers socks into a frozen cryo-chamber. Eat a steak without ketchup. Stop doing Twitter Polls. Talk politics with anyone. And finally I would rather give up fantasy football, gambling and drinking Natty Lights all day every Sunday of the 2019 NFL Season.
Unfortunately for me, the rules are the rules for a reason.
Pick: Washington (+10.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+1)
This line started at three and has since moved two points. This means that Vegas is getting a ton of money on the Panthers to cover. This also means that Vegas is going to be rooting hard for the defending NFC Champions to come through for them.
Once again I wonder which side The Informer should take? The betting public who doesn’t build Casinos, or the team that Vegas wants to win and also happens to be the best team in the NFC?
This is a tough one (it’s not really that tough though).
Pick: Rams (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
The first rule of never betting against Patrick Mahomes is: “You never bet against Patrick Mahomes."
The second rule of never betting against Patrick Mahomes is: “You never bet against Patrick Mahomes.”
What I am trying to say is: "The Informer will not be betting against Patrick Mahomes this week. "
Also, I honestly think this might be the only time this season you will be able to bet the Chiefs as a less than seven point favorite. So load it up on Sunday and enjoy the Mahomes show.
(Informer fantasy football note — Mecole Hardman is getting a touchdown Week 1. So if you are in a need for an Antonio Brown replacement, pick up the Chief’s rookie speedster.)
Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (-7)
The Chargers are without their second best offensive player (Melvin Gordon) and their best defensive player (Derwin James). They are playing in a “home” stadium that will be filled with Colts fans. And everyone is betting them despite the fact that the Colts have the better coach, better defense, better offensive line and Darius “I’m about to break 200 tackles” Leonard.
Listen, I know Andrew is gone (I miss him just as much as everyone else), but the fact is this Colts team is stacked with talent. So if Brissett can be 75% of Andrew Luck — Which he can— than the Colts are going to be a tough out for anyone.
I’m not saying the Colts win, but I think they hang close and definitely cover.
Pick: Colts (+7)
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle HGHawks (-9)
Since I don’t have anything interesting to say about the Bengals or HGHawks this week, here are a few of my favorite season long prop bets that I made:
- Leonard Fournette over 989.5 yards rushing.
- Nick Chubb over 1050.5 yards rushing.
- Saquon Barkley over 1885.5 total receiving and rushing yards.
- Dalvin Cook over 6.5 rush TDs.
- Patrick Mahomes o37 TD passes and 4,650 yards.
- Tom Brady u29.5 TD passes.
- Nick Foles under 3,750.5 yards passing.
- Joe Flacco o16.5 TD passes.
- David Johnson over 1580.5 total rushing and receiving yards.
- LeVeon Bell o9.5 rushing touchdowns.
- Cards u5.5
- Falcons o8.5
- Ravens o8.5
- Chiefs o10.5
- Dolphins u4.5
- Pats o11.5
- Steelers o9.5
- HGHawks o8.5
- Washington u6.5
AFC - Pats, Steelers, Titans and Chiefs
NFC - Dallas, Rams, Falcons and Packers
Super Bowl - Pats or Chiefs defeat Packers or Rams
Pick: HGHawks (-9)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Here is something kind of fun, my friend and former editor — Nik Swartz — has a 9-year old son who is getting into the NFL Picks game. And of course being the new guy in the business, Mr. AC decided he wanted to take on the best in the world so he challenged The Informer to a one on one picks off.
Well Mr. AC, consider your challenge accepted. But I must warn you, there will be no taking it easy just because you are the new guy. No, sir. I’m telling you right now that when you mess with The Informer —you get the horns my friend.
All trash talk aside, I truly do wish you luck young AC. You are gonna need it.
AC’s Picks to win: Bears, Rams, Eagles, Jets, Vikings, Ravens, Chiefs, Browns, Chargers, Hawks, 49ers, Dallas, Lions, Pats, Saints & Raiders.
AC's Picks ATS: Bears (L), Rams (-1), Eagles (-10), Bills (+3), Vikings (-4), Ravens (-6.5), Chiefs (-3.5), Browns (-5.5), Chargers (-7), HGHawks (-9), 49ers (PK), Giants (+7.5), Lions (-3), Pats (-5.5), Texans (+7) and Raiders (+1)
As for the Cowboys-Giants game itself? I am grabbing the 7.5 points. I think this is one of those “Saquon did what” type of games which allows the Giants to hang close.
Pick: Giants (+7.5)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
You know how they tell you not to go grocery shopping on an empty stomach? Because your mind will keep thinking how hungry you are and thus you end up buying tons of food that you know you don't need and that is definitely not good for your health?
That’s how I feel about this game. I am so starved for NFL gambling that I talked myself into the definitely bad for me idea of betting on a rookie quarterback making his first career start and a first year coach who couldn’t beat Baylor last season.
This should end well (shaking head no).
#DontGambleOnAnEmptyStomach
Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay (PK)
Do you know how many NFL players have started their careers with six straight 1,000 yard receiving seasons?
Just one. The great Randy Moss.
With that said, did you also know that Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans is entering his sixth year in the NFL with five straight 1,000 yard season?
Just saying, keep your eye on Mike this year as he has a chance to make some history.
As for the game, count me in on the Bruce Arians is going to “QB Whisper” Jameis Winston into a franchise guy.
Pick: Tampa Bay (PK)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . DO NOT BET AGAINST TOM BRADY IN PRIMETIME!!!
Are we all on the same "do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime" page?
Pick: LKLOTW Pats (-5.5)
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7)
The New Orleans Saints have lost five straight Week 1 games.
In the words of Forrest Gump: “That’s all I have to say about that.”
Pick: Texans (+7)
Denver Donkey's @ Oakland Raiders (+1)
So here is what I wrote for this section at 0530am central time on Saturday Morning before the AB news broke:
"Randy Moss scored 11 touchdowns as a member of the Raiders. So my question is: Will Antonio Brown finish his Raiders career with more or less touchdowns then Randy Moss? I’m taking the under. I’m also taking the Donkey’s to win and cover this spread."
I guess that counts as another win, right? #JustWow. #PleaseSignWithThePatsOrChiefsAB
Pick: Donkey’s (-1)
That’s a wrap folks. Damn it is good to have football back. I hope everyone reading this has a glorious opening Sunday filled with Natty Lights, winning parlays and all the back door covers your heart desires.
See you next week.
Informer out.
The Informer after the blog note- I am posting below the video of young AC making his picks. Feel free to check it out and follow him on YouTube. I got to say the young man definitely has good camera presence and the gift of storytelling. I think he just might be going places. Keep up the good work kid.
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