The Informer's 2019 NFL Picks: Week 4

 

Q: Nice call on the 1st half under in primetime last night Informer. And by nice call I obviously mean total sh**. Seriously, you follow up a 7-9 Week 3 with an under bet that was damn near covered by both teams individually? Is it hard to suck that bad at life? Or do you come by it naturally? Honestly, I would call you trash, but that would be an insult to trash. Why don't you do the world a favor and delete your blog already?

Well, I sure am glad I decided to start this week's article with some emails from the made up readers. That looks like it was a real smart decision. On the bright side, at least I was not called fat or ugly this time.

Q: One more thing Informer, you are an ugly overweight wilderbeast. 

I walked right into that one. But for real, are there any actual sports or gambling questions?

Q: I got one Informer: What is the one thing you hate the most about the 2019 NFL Season?

The thing I hate the most about the 2019 NFL Season -- other than Andrew Luck retiring -- is the new pass interference challenge rule. The thing is an absolute disaster. The refs apparently have been told to not change the call on the field unless one of three things happens 1) Vegas needs the team who would benefit from the challenge to win/cover. 2) A murder, rape or shooting takes place. 3) The refs missed an egregious pass inference call (whatever the f*** that means)?

Just look at what happened on Thursday night. The refs had three chances to change obvious pass inference missed calls and each time they totally ignored the video evidence and stuck with the non-call on the field.

So my question becomes: Why the hell do we even have the new rule if they are not going to use it to get the call right?

And don't give me this "it has to be egregious" (seriously I don't even think that is a real word) crap. If there is an obvious pass interference -- like the Eagles defensive player grabbing, hitting, punching, impeding, holding, inappropriately touching and obviously interfering with the receiver -- then use the technology to make the right call.

I guess my point is this: If they are not going to change these calls when its obvious, then why even use the technology? Just go back to the old way and we can all live with the bad call on the field. At least that would be better than getting boned over by the call a second time when the refs see the video evidence and still refuse to admit they f***ed up.

Q: Okay Informer, what is the one thing you love the most?

I will give you two: Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. They are awesome and my favorite thing about every NFL football Sunday.

Q: Is Felix Hernandez a Hall of Famer?

Ummm . . .Wrong blog dude (my answer is no though).

Q: Who are your Top 5 MVP candidates through three weeks?

1. Patrick Mahomes - No one has been better then Patrick Mahomes through three weeks. 
2. Tom Brady - No one not named Patrick Mahomes has been better than Tom Brady through three weeks.
3. Lamar Jackson - Losing a shoot-out against Patrick Mahomes doesn't drop Lamar out of my Top 5 MPV rankings. But I am watching to see how he responds in Week 4 against the Browns. 
4. Dalvin Cook - Cook is on pace for 2,400 total yards from scrimage on a team that is going to be fighting for a playoff spot. Sounds like an MVP candidate to me. 
5. Aaron Rodgers - If Aaron Rodgers is going to lead the Packers to the NFC North Championship (which I am predicting) he is going to be in the MVP conversation.

Q: How can you call yourself an expert at making NFL picks when you are getting smoked by a nine year old? You are a fraud Informer. You somehow tricked people into thinking you knew something when the reality is anyone can do what you do. Even a kid.

Have you ever heard of Bobby Fisher? Or Adam Banks? Or MacCaulley Culkin? Or Young Sheldon?

Those "kids" as you call them happened to be prodigies. You know what a prodigy is? Its a person who is a genius even though the outside world would call them a "kid".

Well guess what, I am starting to think "Young AC" is a prodigy when it comes to making NFL picks.

So yea, I take absolute no shame in getting beat by a genius. Furthermore, if being a fraud means I am going to keep my six games above .500 record (27-21 ATS) throughout the season -- along with my "winning 80% of the time" first half under in Primetime bets -- then please sign me up as the biggest fraud on the internet. 

Because if being that fraud means winning, I am happy to keep up the act.

And on that note, here are The Informer's Week 4 NFL Picks.

As always please remember that these picks are only to be used for shady illegal bets made with guys named "Slim", "Suds", "Big Tuna", "Jim" or anything that rhymes with the words "Slick Willy", "Big Wussy" or "Small Rick".

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-4)

The Informer's proof of Thursday Night Football Pick:

Give me Eagles +4.5 and 1st half under 22.5 #TNF

— The Informer (@therealinformer) September 26, 2019

Pick: Eagles (+4)

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans (-5)

Is a guy named Kyle really going to win back to back NFL road games? Just seems far-fetched to me.

Pick: Texans (-5)

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

I have zero scientific logic, theories on the flat Earth, or gambling statistics to back up my pick; but I am grabbing the points and betting the Browns. 

Pick: Browns (+7)

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3)

When two crappy teams are playing against each other the rules clearly state one must always take the points. Even if that means betting the Redskins on the road.

Pick: Washington (+3)

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (+15.5)

Normally, since I took the Chargers in my winners suicide poll, I would bet the Dolphins as a just in case hedge bet. But I am not going to do that today and here is why: The Miami clogged toilets suck donkey rectum and I refuse to put money on them.

How’s that for scientific gambling data.

Pick: Chargers (-15.5)

Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (-7)

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again with the same results. Yet here I am, totally not insane, once again betting the Oakland Raiders as a heavy road underdog.

In the words of the great Roy Munson: "Who you calling a psycho?"

Pick: Raiders (+7)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (+7)

For fun here is one of the DraftKings lineups The Informer set up for today:

QB: Mahomes

RB: McCoy
RB: Williams (the non injured one)
WR: Sammy Watkins
WR: D. Robinson (from Chiefs)
WR: Mecole Hardman
TE: Travis Kelce
Flex: D. Freeman (Falcons)
D: Chiefs

I guess what I’m trying to say is I think the Chiefs are about to have a huge day.

Pick: Chiefs (-7)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-7)

The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 when I use their section of the blog to hand out the Blimpie Best meme of the week. So for the sake of trying to help the Billsmafia out here is the Blimpies Best meme of the Week: 

Picks: Pats (-7)

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Here are 10 random stats that I found interesting heading into the Week 4 season.

1. The New England Patriots defense is on pace to only give up 90.6 points this season.
2. The NFL record is currently held by the Chicago Bears who in 1985 gave up 198 total points.
3. Tom Brady needs 414 yards to pass Drew Brees for third place all time.
4. Tom Brady's career high for passing yards in the city of Buffalo is 466.
5. Larry Fitzgerald needs five receptions to pass Tony Gonzalez for second place all time.
6. Julio Jones needs four more yards to reach 11,000 career receiving yards.
7. If Jones surpasses the mark today, he will have accomplished the feat in just nine season and 114 career games.
8. For comparison sake: It took Jerry Rice nine seasons and 133 games to surpass 11k.
9. Speaking of milestones and records -- AC the Gambling Kid Prodigy -- is currently 35-12-1 with his straight up NFL picks and 29-19 against the spread. 
10. To put that in perspective: According to NFL picks watch dot com his 29-19 record ATS is the third best of any expert on the internet. 

As for this game, The Informer is completely stealing AC's pick and laying the points #As the old saying goes: "If you can't beat the prodigy, use his picks to make yourself look better and make money".

Pick: LKLOTW Falcons (-3.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)

Sticking with "AC the Prodigy" here are his Week 4 picks. If you would like to get his reasoning behind the picks please click this link and go watch his YouTube video. I am not lying when I say the kid has massive talent.

AC against the Spread: Packers (-4) Falcons (-3.5), Giants (-3), Chargers (-15.5), Raiders (+7), Texans (-5), Chiefs (-7), Pats (-7), Rams (-10.5), Hawks (-5.5), Bears (PK), Jags (+2.5), Cowboys (-2.5) & Steelers (-3)

AC straight up to win: Packers, Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Ravens, Pats, Rams, Hawks, Bears, Jags, Boys & Steelers

Pick: Tampa (+10.5)

Seattle HGHAWKS @ Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (PK)

Two road teams that the majority of the public betting money is backing.

What could go wrong?

Pick: Vikings (PK) HGHawks (-5.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Donkeys (-2.5)

10 random Gardner Milksteak facts:

1. When "The Milksteak" gives you the finger, he is telling you how many seconds you have before he throws a touchdown pass.
2. Gardner Milksteak can pick oranges from an apple tree and make the best lemonade you have ever tasted.
3. There is no play clock in games involving Gardner, because "The Milksteak" decides what time it is.
4. Gardner Milksteaks real name is Gardner Minshew.
5. Gardner Milksteak tells Simon what to do.
6. Gardner Milksteak refers to himself in the fourth person.
7. Every time Gardner Milksteak throws an interception a Unicorn is born. It's just to bad that the Milksteak never throws interceptions.
8. Gardner Milksteak can throw a football right between a cyclops eye.
9. Gardner Milksteak can cut a butter knife with a football.
10. And finally, Gardner Milksteak eats pieces of Denver Donkey's for breakfast. 

Pick: Jags (+2.5)

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (+2.5)

The Saints backup quarterback tricks were fun for a week, but I don't think they can do it two weeks in a row.

Pick: Cowboys (-2.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Nope. Not doing it. Next.

“Informer you can’t do the next gimmick, this is the Monday night football game.”

Wait, again? Are you serious? What did ESPN do to make the NFL so mad at them?

Yikes. 

Well, I am obviously not going to waste any time talking about the Steelers or the Bengals, so how about I just remind everyone that the 1st half under is 21.5 and wrap this blog up.

Is that a good plan?

Awesome.

Pick: Steelers (-3)

That’s it for Week 4. Good luck to everyone reading. I truly hope your Sunday is filled with Natty Light, winning parlays and enough back door covers to build your own Blimpies sub shop.

See y’all next week.

Informer out.

THE INFORMER'S 2019 NFL PICKS RECORD

Overall: 27-21

Last Week: 7-9

LKLOTW: 2-1

Overall Winning Weeks ATS : 2-1

(The Informer after the blog straight up to win picks: Packers, Falcons, Chargers, Colts, Chiefs, Ravens, Pats, Rams, Hawks, Vikings, Donkeys, Boys, Steelers)