The Informer's 2018 NFL Picks: Week 1

For those of you that are new to this blog my name is The Informer. I am an overweight middle aged man with a Natty Light problem who watches too much football and loves to gamble. I am also someone who has picked over 50% correct against the spread on NFL games in nine of the last 11 seasons.

Which brings us to why we are here today: Simply put, me and you (aka the readers) are here to make money illegally (and technically in some countries now legally) betting on NFL games while hopefully getting "Jay Culter Wasted" and having a few laughs.

So what is about to happen is I am going to go through every game from Week 1 of the 2018 NFL Season and pick who I think is going to cover the spread (this is not who I think is going to win, this is who is going to "cover" the point spread). And then you the reader will in turn use the information I provided to place illegal wagers and win tons of money.

It literally is that easy.

I watch the football, then I provide the expert winning picks, then you win a stuff ton of money. It is a no lose situation for everyone involved as long as I continue to be one of the best NFL handicappers on the internet (which obviously is going to happen); you keep using the information provided to place wagers (again if you are reading it will happen); and of course the FBI does not arrest any of us for committing illegal acts of gaming (I am not sure that can legally happen in Murica. Can it?).

(The Informer note - I am of course just kidding about making illegal wagers. This is a satire column that provides information/picks that should only be used for recreational purposes. In no way does The Informer, my family, or anyone who believes in Tim Tebow --condone breaking of the law. Seriously, please do not use the picks below to wrongfully make thousands of millions of dollars this season. That would be immoral and illegal.)

Anyways, which means please stop interrupting me with legalities while I am drinking my Natties, now that we all know the basics about why we are here: How about we get to The Informer's Week 1 2018 NFL Picks?

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (PK)

Here is The Informer's proof of Thursday Night pick Tweet:

Im taking the Falcons (Pick Em) and the the 1st Half Under 22.5 #TNFBets #FootballIsBack #FlyFalconsFly

— The Informer (@therealinformer) September 6, 2018

Pick: Falcons (Loss) 1st Half Under (Win)

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings (-6)

Is it just me, or does it just feel right starting year 11 off with a fun "Randy Moss is a 1st ballot NFL Hall of Famer fact" that involves both the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers?

Did you know that 20 years ago to the day on September 9th, 1998 the great Randy Moss debuted as an NFL rookie catching four passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns (both  passes from Brad Johnson) while leading the Minnesota Vikings to a 31-7 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Did you also know that six years ago to the day on September 9th, 2012 the great Randy Moss played in his last opening day game catching four passes for 47 yards and one touchdown (from Alex Smith) while leading the San Francisco 49ers to a 30-22 victory over the Green Bay Packers?

"Hey Informer why in the hell are you still blabbing on about Randy Moss? The dude has literally zero to do with this game on Sunday. Could you please for once in your miserable life just do your job and tell us who is going win the Jimmy G vs the former Washington quarterback match up?"

Does that mean you all don't want to hear about how 11 years ago to the day on September 9th, 2007 the great Randy Moss debuted with the New England Patriots catching nine passes for 181 yards and one touchdown while setting the tone for the Pats to become the only team in NFL history to finish a regular season 16-0?

No?

Are you sure?

Okay, fine. If you insist here is my breakdown of the present day 49ers-Vikings game: I am taking the 49ers because Jimmy G has covered in all five of his starts as a 49ers QB so I am going to ride his covering trend until he bucks me.

Pick: 49ers (+6.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns . . . I am not going to pick the Browns.

F***!!!

Am I really gonna pick the Browns?

Would someone please go get me 6-12 more Natties?

#ThisCantBeReal

Pick: Browns (+3.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-2)

Here are five "Bold" Informer predictions involving these two teams:

1.  AJ Green will have 1500+ yards and at least 12 TDs this season.
2.  Andrew Luck will finish Top 5 MVP, and Top 3 fantasy quarterbacks. 
3. Joe Mixon is going to rush for more than 1,300 yards. 
4. Both of these teams are going to go over their Vegas projected win totals (Over/Under for each team is 7 wins).
5. Both of these teams are going to make the Playoffs this season. 

As far as Sunday goes, I'm taking the points because I am not allowed to bet against AJ Green unless I know it is a sure fire win and that I am going to make loads of money doing it. On Sunday, as much as I love having Andrew back, there is nothing is surefire about Luck's first start in almost 2 years; therefore give me the points and lets hope for a Sunday afternoon shootout.

Pick: Bengals (+2)

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

If I watch a single minute of this "2nd floor of a big city apartment fire" the NFL is trying to pass of as an actual abortion; I swear I will give up drinking Natty Light for at least six to seven hours.

Of course, since I am not going to watch this apartment fire, think about this apartment fire, or make any other remarks about this 2nd floor of a big city apartment fire: I figured now would be the perfect time to hand out the Week 1 Blimpies Best meme of the Week:

#ClassicSmokingJayWinsTheInternetAgain.

Pick: Ravens (-7.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants (+3)

Speaking of not caring . . . I don't care if he did almost beat Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game; the gambling rules still clearly state that a person should never, not even if their is a big city 2nd floor apartment fire, bet on Blake Bortles as a road favorite.

Again, I did not make these rules, I just follow them because I like being right.

Pick: New York Giants (+3)

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-6)

"Hey Informer what are these so called rules you speak of?"

You know what? That is a very good question. Sometimes I forget that new people may be reading this blog and not have a full grasp on "Informer drunken gambling 101". Let me try to help y'all understand better by listing 10 of the most hard-fast rules that I follow every single time I place a wager (unless of course I have a "feeling"):

1. Never bet Blake Bortles as a road favorite.
2. Always bet Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Primetime.
3. Always bet the 1st half under in primetime.
4. When two shitty teams are playing, take the points.
5. The Browns suck and only a drunken idiot who wants to lose all his money would bet them against Ben Roethlisberger who is 11-2 as a starter in Browns stadium.
6. The Rams are going to be great, bet them while you can.
7. When in doubt, take the best quarterback.
8. Did I mention Tom Brady?
9. If 80% of the public is betting one way, you bet the other way. Don't ask questions.
10. And finally, when all else fails, get "Jay Cutler Wasted" and bet with reckless abandon.

Pick: Patriots (-6)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans Saints (-10)

I am taking the New Orleans Saints in all five of my NFL survivor polls. Which of course means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to some how win on Sunday. Which also of course means a smart person -- and if you are reading this blog we know you are the smartest of the smart - - would grab the 10 points and laugh their way to the bookies office.

Pick: Tampa Bay (+10)

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+1)

If someone said "Hey Informer what do you love more: Derrick Henry or Blimpies?" I would obviously say Blimpies. But I am not gonna lie, I would have to think about it for a split second. That is how great I think the beast from Alabama is going to be this year. In fact, I have so much faith in Henry rushing for 1,700 yards this season that I am going to make the Tennessee Titans my Week 1 Lion King Lock of the Week.

Lock it in.

Pick: LKLOTW Titans (-1)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

Q: What did the Chargers defense say when the Chiefs quarterback fell on top of them?

A: Get off of me Mahomes . . . #

With literally zero context behind it, this joke slays me every time.

#LongLiveMahomes

Pick: Chiefs (+3.5)

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-3)

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

As the rules say, when in doubt always take the team with the better quarterback.

Pick: Seahawks (+3) Panthers (-3) & Washington (-1.5)

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-7)

Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . .Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . .Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . Aaron Rodgers at home in Primtime . . . AARON RODGERS AT HOME IN PRIMETIME!!!

I hope I am not being to subtle with this one.

Pick: Packers (-7)

New York Jets @ Detroit Lions (-6.5)

A New York Jets rookie quarterback on the road during Monday Night Football in his first ever NFL game and he is giving less than a touchdown? Am I being Punk'd right now? Is Ashton Kutcher running a prank on me? Do people remember Punk'd? Or who Ashton Kutcher is? How many questions about Ashton Kutcher is too many before the readers stop reading this blog? Is there any chance in hell there are still people reading? Should I post a link to a Pam Anderson having marital relations video just to see if anyone is still here? Do people still watch videos like that? Hell, do people still know who Pam Anderson is? Maybe I should go with a Paris Hilton video? Then again, do people still know who Paris Hilton is?

"Dear Gawd Informer . . . Please no more questions. Just give us your pick and wrap this thing up."

Okay, as I said above, I am taking the Lions (-6.5) because I don't think Ashton Kutcher exists anymore. Which means there is no way this is a prank. Instead it is a gift sent straight from the Gambling Tebow's to make us all rich.

Pick: Lions (-6.5)

Los Angeles Rams @ Oakland Raiders (+4)

Follow the rules and bet the Rams now before it is too late.

Pick: Rams (-4)

That is all folks. Merry NFL Sunday Funday Christmas. May your day be filled with winning parlays, Natty Lights and all the Blimpies money can buy.

See you next week.

The Informer's 2018 Fantasy Football Preview: Snake Draft #1

Last night in my never ending quest to help you the reader draft the perfect NFL Fantasy Football team, I took part in my first 2018 "Snake/Live" draft on Yahoo sports dot com. It was a standard 10-team, one point per reception, league where a person starts a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, FLEX, Kicker and a Defense.

For those who are new to fantasy football (Where have you been? And why are you reading a fantasy football article?), a "Snake/Live" draft is where everyone gets to chose a player based on a draft order starting with the #1 pick and ending with the #10 pick. Then the guy who had the #10 pick in the previous round gets the 1st pick in the next round. 

I know it sounds confusing, but really it is not. Basically the guy with the 1st pick in round one then has the last pick in round two and then the 1st pick in round three. This changing order continues throughout the draft. 

Like I said, its not really confusing at all. 

Now, before we delve into the results of the draft, I would like to point out that this was an actual "paid" money league. That means this was a real draft, with real people and real money at stake. So rest assured there were no shenanigans, or people "Drafting Blake Bortles number one overall because they follow Blake Bortles facts on Twitter". 

No, the results you are about to read are legit as Frankie Munoz. 

On that note, here are the results from The Informer's first Yahoo snake draft of the 2018 NFL fantasy football season.

(The Informer note -- For this draft I drew the lucky #9, which means I had picks 9, 12, 29, 32, 49, 52, 69, 72, 89,92, 109, 112 and four other late round selections.)

ROUND 1 (Pick #9): WR Odell Beckham Jr

With running backs and Antonio Brown going with the first eight picks my choice here was either Odell Bekham Jr. or Julio Jones. In other words I was choosing between a Blimpie Best on Italian bread, or a Blimpie Best on wheat bread. 

In this draft I choose the O.D.B. because I already have Julio on three other teams and I just happened to be craving wheat bread when it was my time to select. 

ROUND 2 (Pick #12): WR A.J. Green

I definitely had plenty of options with this pick, but in my mind no matter what happened I was either drafting Leonard Fournette or A.J. Green. When it came time to choose I went with Green because he is my favorite player. 

ROUND 3 (Pick #29): QB Aaron Rodgers

I know  . . . I know  . . . YOU ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO DRAFT A QUARTERBACK IN THE EARLY ROUNDS!!!!

In my defense, Aaron Rodgers was the best player on the board when it came to the 29th pick. Sure I could have reached on a running back like Joe Mixon (not a bad reach), or I could have drafted a third WR like Tyreek Hill (again not a bad option); but in my mind I went the safe route and picked a guy who is guaranteed to be a fantasy stud every single week.

Remember drafting is all about getting the best value, and when the season ends I am willing to bet that my third round selection will score more points than any other third round selection. That makes taking a QB early in the draft worth it if you ask me.

ROUND 4 (Pick #32):  TE Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce or Derrick Henry? That was the question I was facing early in the fourth round. I choose Kelce because Henry was ranked #54 overall by Yahoo, so I was rolling the dice that he would still be on the board when I picked in the 5th round with the #49 pick. 

ROUND 5 (Pick #49): RB Derrick Henry

I am going to be very honest; if I would have missed out on Henry here, then this draft would have been a complete bust. Luckily, the fantasy Tebow's were on my side and I was able to draft the guy who is going to lead the league in rushing yards in 2018. 

ROUND 6 (Pick #52): TE Jim Graham

Jim Graham is going to be Aaron Rodgers' favorite receiver this season; which means adding him as one of my flex options in the sixth round was a no-brainer. 

ROUND 7 (Pick #69): QB Cam Newton

I'll explain this pick more in a second.

ROUND 8 (Pick #72): RB Marlon Mack

Marlon Mack is going to be a starting running back in the NFL this season. And, well, since I need to start two running backs on my "fantasy" team; I figured I better draft a second guy who is actually going to be a starter on a "real life" team. Also, I think Mack has a ton of upside is Andre Luck stays healthy in 2018. 

Hey, speaking of Andrew Luck . . .

ROUND 9 (Pick #89): QB Andrew Luck

So you all are probably asking: "Why in the hell would The Informer draft three QBs in a league where you only start one?" 

Well . . . Here is my reasoning: In the ninth round I could have had my choice between rookies we know nothing about (Kerryon Johnson, Nick Chub, etc...), older stars we hope have one more season left (Jordy Nelson/Sam Watkins) or a back up running back (Tarik Cohen). 

Or, I could draft Andrew Luck and give myself two extra fantasy studs (Luck & Newton) who I can use as trade chips to try and get the stud WR/RB who was not available in the 9th round.

As you can see, I decided to go with option "stud trade chips". 

Remember folks, fantasy football is not over once your draft is over. Sometimes you need to play the long-con game and hope that a desperate sucker comes along later to reward your strategy. That is what I am doing here. If I can turn Cam or Luck into a stud later in the season then my strategy will pay off with a fantasy championship.

ROUND 10 (Pick #92): RB Isaiah Crowell

Isaiah Crowell may not be the Jenna Jameson of the fantasy football world (aka a sexy pick), but he is a starting running back that I was able to draft in the 10th round. 

ROUND 11 (Pick #109): RB Nick Chubb

ROUND 12 (Pick #112): WR Randal Cobb

ROUND 13: RB Matt Breida

ROUND 14: WR Calvin Ridley

Two rookies, an older WR who plays with Aaron Rodgers and a running back who is getting really good "camp" reviews. That is why I drafted Chubb, Ridley, Cobb and Breida. These are all lottery tickets that I am hoping turn into something. 

ROUND 15: Los Angeles Chargers

I drafted the Chargers for two reasons:

1) This league mandates that you draft a least one defense.

2) I drank one to many Natty Lights during the draft and thought I was drafting the Los Angeles Rams, not the San Diego Bosa's. 

ROUND 16: Cowboys Kicker

Its a kicker. 

CONCLUSION:

If you ask me the Rodgers, Henry, Mack, Beckham, Green, Kelce, Graham, Crowell, Chargers & Kicker is a winning lineup. Most weeks I am going to have the best QB, the two best WRs, & the two best TEs in any match up. And if Henry is fantasy gold like I suspect, and I am able to turn Newton or Luck into a stud, then this will turn out to be one of the best teams I draft all year. 

In the end if this roster comes through like I think it will I stand to make a profit of $65. Time to go find another house to flip team to draft. 

The Informer's 2018 Fantasy Football Preview: Auction Draft #1

Last night I took part in my first 2018 fantasy football auction draft (league price was $40) on Yahoo sports dot com. It was a 10-team "Super Flex" league where a person starts a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, SUPER FLEX (which means you can use a QB, RB, WR or TE) and a Defense. In this draft each team was able to fill their roster (9 starters & 7 reserves) using a $200 dollar budget.

Now I know what everyone is thinking right now: "Informer no one gives a damn about your fantasy football teams."

And to that I say, "I totally agree and understand."

But that is not why I am sharing my team with you today. No, I am sharing my team, and the reasons behind why I drafted said team, in order to try and prepare you the reader for your upcoming drafts.

The thinking is that you will get a chance to see the mistakes, or great picks, that I made and when it comes time for your fantasy draft you will be able to learn from my experiences to help you build the perfect fantasy football team.

Furthermore, the reason I pointed out that this was a "$40 money league" is because I wanted everyone reading to know that this was an actual draft with real money at stake and not some mock draft where three people didn't show up and two guys bid $150 on Kirk Cousins because they graduated from Michigan State. I have used those types of drafts in the past to write my previews and it always seems like I end up not giving you the readers a true reflection of how a draft is going to play out in real life.

So again, while you are reading about my team please keep in mind that these are the real results, from a real draft, with real people and real money at stake.

Okay, now that we all agree this draft was realer (Is realer a word?) than an episode of WWE Monday Night Raw, here are the results from The Informer's 1st official 2018 Fantasy Football team.

QB: Andrew Luck ($9) Russell Wilson ($27) Lamar Jackson ($1)

The first thing everyone needs to remember is that this is a "start two quarterbacks each week" league which means it was absolutely critical that I was able to draft two elite quarterbacks. So getting Luck and Wilson on the same team was a win. Now, with that said; the problem with having Luck and Wilson on this team is the fact that I did not want to spend $27 on Russell Wilson.

You see what happened was I got too cute trying to run up the bid for Wilson (a classic auction draft strategy gone wrong) that I accidentally ended up spending $27 for one guy when I could have had any combo off Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousin, Philip Rivers, etc . . . for less than $27 dollars.

Basically, I could have had a roster of three elite QBs, but by messing around with the bid I ended up blowing all my money on Wilson and now my only backup quarterback in a two QB league is literally a back up quarterback.

In other words: "I done f-up trying to keep it real" and now I have to pray to Tebow that Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold or Josh "The Torpedo Missile" Allen turn out to be real NFL quarterbacks or else my chances of winning this league may be gone before training camp ends.

RB: Joe Mixon ($30) Derrick Henry ($17) Nick Chubb ($1)

The goal going into the draft was to get a three RB combination of Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon. So getting two of the four guys counts as a sort of win. But the reality is I ended up not bidding on some other quality backs trying to get my guys and that left a glaring hole in my team.

On the bright side though, it is only July 30th, which means my strategy has changed from getting three of "these" four guys to "I sure as hell hope there is some fourth round running back who turns into Kareem Hunt this August so I can pick him up off of waivers and complete my team".

I admit, it is not the best strategy, but as of now it is the only one I have so I am rolling with it.

WR: Julio Jones ($47) AJ Green ($37) Josh Gordon ($11) Cory Davis ($4) DeVante Parker ($1) Cooper Kuup ($1) Randall "Corn On The" Cobb ($1) Calvin Ridley ($1)

The truth of the matter is I have too many WRs on the roster. I know that. But if I am being totally honest, I would say that I just drafted the best WR trio in the history of fantasy football, and I did it for under $100 bucks.

That folks is called winning.

TE: Evan Ingram ($11)

Ingram was listed as a $22 dollar value heading into the draft, so getting him at half price was a complete steal. These are the types of deals you have to be ready to pounce on in order to have great fantasy auction drafts. And last night that is exactly what I did.

Defense: Denver Broncos ($1)

It's a defense. I paid a dollar for them. That pretty much sums up the thought process behind getting the Von Miller's.

IN CONCLUSION:

If healthy and everyone plays I have great upside guys (Henry, Mixon & Ingram all year 2 players looking to make the leap), I have the fantasy veterans who I know will deliver (AJ, Julio & Wilson) and I have one guy who could win me the league for me if he returns to MVP form (Andrew Luck).

So overall I am happy with how things turned out. With that said, I am man enough to admit that with this being the first draft of the year -- and also being the first time I did a fantasy auction draft for a 2-QB league - - I made too many mistakes to call this a 100% success (I will be having nightmares for months about blowing $27 bucks on Wilson when I could have had Cam for $17).

In the end I don't think the mistakes made will keep me from winning my league, but they are mistakes that I will learn from and hopefully can avoid making again during my quest to help you the readers draft the perfect 2018 NFL Fantasy team.