Sunday, June 30, 2019

The Informer's 2019 NFL Fantasy Football Preview: The Mailbag



Q: Hey Informer when is your next fantasy football article coming out?

How about right now? Maybe we could do a fantasy football mailbag? Does that sound fun?

Q: A mailbag huh? So I guess what you are saying is that after writing your first article of the year (FYI - month seven of 2019 is about to start) you already got burned out and must now resort back to gimmick articles to create content?

Ummmm . . . Yes. That is exactly what I am saying.

Q: Well at least you are man enough to admit that you are a bum a** loser. But okay, if a mailbag is what you want to do --then lets do it. First of all it is June 30th and I think the seven people reading this article want to know: How many fantasy football teams have you drafted so far this year? 

I have done four total drafts. I did a $10 auction draft, a $30 auction draft and two $20 snake drafts.

Q: Why do you always point out how much money you spend on each draft? Can't you just say you have done four drafts and leave it at that? 

My reasoning for saying how much each draft costs is very simple: I want anyone reading this to know that every draft I write about is a paid competitive league. 

This is good information because it shows that everything I am going to write about for the next two months are from drafts with real people, real stakes and real results. These are not mock drafts with "bots" or "people practicing and then leaving after a stupid mistake" in them.

So no, I can't just say I have done four drafts and leave it at that, because that would not provided enough context for what I am trying to do with these previews.

Q: A simple I am a blowhard would have been enough, but I guess your long winded asinine theory on fantasy football previews will suffice. Anyways, which means no one is reading this article "anyways" but I am going to keep asking questions just for fun: Who is your favorite sleeper so far? 

Since it is only June I honestly have no idea who is going to be a good sleeper; so I am not going to be able to answer your question. What I can do though is hand out a few big time names that I have noticed have great value in these early drafts.

For Snake Drafts:
  • Antonio Brown
  • T.Y. Hilton
  • Leonard Fournette
  • A.J. Green
  • Marlon Mack

For Auction Drafts:
  • David Johnson is going $10-15 cheaper than the other Top 5 running backs.
  • Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and AJ Green are three great values at WR. 
  • Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack and Sonny Michel. 

Q: Since you brought up auction drafts: What are The Informer's thoughts on spending all your money on a Saquon Barkley-Ezekiel Elliot super tandem? 

Instead of giving you my thoughts up front, how about we look at an example of what a person's team might look like if they decided to go the "Super-Duo" route in a standard 10-12 team auction draft?

QB: Big Ben $2

RB: Barkley $70
RB: Zeke $68
WR: Sterling Shepard $10
WR: Mike Evans $34
TE: David Njoku $3
Flex: Marquise Goodwin $5
K: $1
D: $1
Bn: Josh “The Cannon” Allen $1
Bn: Cortland Sutton $1
Bn: LeSean McCoy $1
Bn: Golden Tate $1
Bn: Larry Fitzgerald $1

Bn: Adrian Peterson $1

I guess what I am trying to say by showing this example of a really stacked team using the "Super Duo" strategy is "yes I think spending big money on the Top 2 players (or two of the Top 10 players) is always a great strategy to use in all standard 10-12 team leagues."

Q: Informer why do you keep saying the word standard? It’s really annoying.

I do sincerely apologize. I have been told by many people (mostly my wife) that being annoying is one of my finer qualities. As for the reason I keep saying standard? That is because I want to make it very clear that certain strategies are only good if you are in a standard league. 

What is a standard league some may ask?

It is a 10 or 12 team league where each team starts a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, D and kicker each week. 

These "standard leagues" are what the vast majority of fantasy football players play. 

Q: So what is a non standard league?

A league where you have more starters than normal, or you have defensive players on your roster, or there are 14-16 teams in the league, or leagues with a super flex (means a person can start 2 QBs).

Basically anything where rules or roster size have been changed would count as a non-standard league. 

For all those “custom” leagues my advice is to always find out your rules before the draft and then make a draft strategy based on the rules. Trust me on this; if you go into those "custom" league drafts with the same plan as a standard you will walk out with an incomplete team.

Q: Informer I got the #1 pick in my draft (10-team snake draft with super flex). Obviously I’m taking Saquon first, but who should I pick with the #20 & #21 picks? Do I go quarterback that early since it is a Super Flex? 

Once again this question is a matter of what your preference for players is. But I would say unless Mahomes is still there at the turn (pick #20-21) you should wait on QB (or if you really love Andrew Luck or Rodgers take them cause they won't be there at pick 40 in a Super Flex league).

With that said; I actually just did a 10-team snake draft league where we start a Super Flex, so how about we look at what the person with the #1 pick in that draft did with his first eight picks (I did not have #1 pick):

1: Barkley
20: Travis Kelce
21: Mike Evans
40: Damian Williams
41: Matt Ryan

60: Chris Goodwin
61: Cooper Cupp
80: Chris Carson
81: Josh Allen

I am not going to lie to anyone reading this article. I absolutely despise what this person did with his Saquon Barkley gift. Maybe it is because I am not very high on Cupp, Carson or Goodwin; but I think he could have done a hell of a lot better. 

Speaking of a hell of a lot better: Here is what I would have done if I was picking #1 in this draft.

1: Saquon Barkley
20: Dalvin Cook
21: Antonio Brown or Evans either works
40: Marlon Mack
41: DeVontae Freeman
60: Evan Ingram
61: Jarvis Landry
80: Kirk Cousins

81: Jimmy Garoppollo

Now that is what a Saquon Barkley Super Flex team should look like. 

Q: Who is one guy you will not have on any teams this year?

The fact that I am trying to draft 50 teams this season means at some point I am going to end up with every player at least once. That’s just basic math. But I will say the thought of spending $30-40 on Patrick Mahomes (who I love with all my heart) in any standard auction draft is not something I am going to do.

In other words; the only way Mahomes ends up on my team this year will be if I take him in a snake draft, or if I’m in some weird auction where you start two or three QBs thus making him worthy of the money.

Q: So you are saying you will not draft Mahomes this year unless you do draft him? That’s some next level expert fantasy football advice right there. No wonder they call you The Informer. Ps your fantasy football advice sucks and so do your Twitter polls.

Do we really need to bring my Twitter polls into this? I mean I get that my fantasy football advice isn't for everyone, but what the heck did my Twitter polls ever do to you? 

Q: Informer even you know your Twitter polls are the most annoying thing on the internet. So don't try to make it sound like they are innocent in all of your nonsense. But you are right, let's stick to fantasy football for today. What are your thoughts LeVeon Bell?

First off my Twitter polls are awesome and you know it. Secondly off, I will not have Bell on any of my auction teams because I am not willing to spend 50-60 dollars on him (he was over $55 in both my drafts so far). Now, depending on the placement of a snake draft, I would start looking at bell in the 7-12 range but nothing higher.

My Top 7 in order of any and all snake drafts:


1: Saquon
2: Zeke
3: Run CMC
4: Kamara
5: Johnson
6: Hopkins/Julio
7: Bell or Gordon


Q: I stand by what I said Informer. Your Twitter polls suck. And so does this blog. You should think about deleting your account. I promise the world would be a better place if you did. Now, before you go making the world a better place, since at least one person on the internet did get to the end of this "non informative" blog post: Can you give us at least one piece of fantasy football advice that will be worth remembering for the upcoming season? 

You want some good advice? How about this: Tyreke Hill is being drafted very low in both auction and snake draft formats because people still do not know what is going to happen with him after the NFL finishes their investigation into his off the field issues.

Why am I telling you this? 

Because word leaked earlier this week that any Hill suspension would be four games at the most; which now makes Tyreke Hill an absolute steal if you can get him in fifth round (or lower) or for less than $30 in an auction draft. 

And on that note, it is time for The Informer to go find another team to draft. 

#TheQuestFor50Continues

#Happy4thOfJuly











Saturday, June 22, 2019

The Informer's 2019 NFL Fantasy Football Preview: Team One



Hello everyone that clicked the link to this article. My name is The Informer and I will be your self-glossed fantasy football expert for the day. 

My credentials are as followed: I have been playing fantasy football since 1998. I watch every single minute of NFL action every single Sunday of every single year (you can ask my wife and children; they will confirm my family neglect during NFL Sundays). And lastly, in 2018 I won money in 12 of my 17 fantasy football leagues.
Now, does watching an unhealthy amount of NFL football while managing 17 fantasy football teams actually make me an expert? I have no idea. What I do know is that for the 2019 NFL Season I have set a goal to manage at least 50 teams and I thought why not share (and analyze) the results from every draft I do while trying to reach that goal. Then hopefully -- by the time your draft comes later this summer -- you the reader should have all the knowledge, strategies, sleepers and tricks needed to have a successful draft. And do you want to know what the best part of this journey is? The fact that I am putting up real money for every team/draft that I write about (for today's article I am covering my team from a $10 auction draft). This is important because it means all the results from every draft will be legitimate. There will be no drafts where Dak Prescott goes #1 overall because some 12-year old Jabroni is doing a "Mock Free Draft" under his dads account. No, every draft/team covered in these previews will be the real deal, with real people, real results and real money on the line. Which means when it comes time for your draft these previews -- unlike other "Mock Draft" previews -- will actually be the closest representation to real life that there is. In other words: The Informer is going to spend a ton of money (don't tell my wife) so the readers can learn from my mistakes in the hopes that everyone will eventually draft the perfect 2019 Fantasy Football team. Anyways, now that we have all the particulars in order, here is "Team One" of The Informer's 2019 Fantasy Football Season. (The Informer note-- For today's article we are covering my team from a 10-person auction draft (.5 point ppr league) where each guy/girl had $200 to fill out a roster of 17 players: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex, K, Def, Bench, B, B, B, B, B, B.) TEAM ONE:

QB: Aaron Rodgers ($14) Baker ($2) Tom Brady ($1)

RB: Christian McCaffery ($62) David Johnson ($47) Leonard Fournette ($29) Adrian Peterson ($1)

WR: Mike Evans ($34) Courtland Sutton ($1) Devin Funchess ($1) James Washington ($1) DK Metcalf ($1) Parrish Campbell ($1)

TE: Eric Ebron ($2) Trey Burton ($1)  Greg Olson ($1) Dallas Goedert ($1)

Starters:
QB: Rodgers
RB: Run CMC
RB: David Johnson
WR: Mike Evans
WR: Courtland Sutherland
TE: Eric Ebron
Flex: Leonard Fournette
Flex: Trey Burton or Greg Olson
D: TBD
K: TBD

Here are The Informer's five thoughts on this roster:
  1. In lieu of drafting a kicker or defense on June 1st, I decided to grab as many skilled position guys — and  a couple of rookie lottery tickets — in the hopes that come September one or two will turn into draft day steals (I am looking at you Funchess, Metcalf & Parrish). With that said; what this strategy ultimately means is that I will have to drop at least two people from my team before the season starts so I can pick up a kicker and a defense. That is okay though, because right now I am holding lottery tickets (and injury protection) on my roster instead of a Gramatica brother or unknown defense.
  2. You may have noticed my roster includes four tight ends. I want to assure all of you that this was by design. You see after I spent all my money on three RBs, Mike Evans and Aaron Rodgers (more on him in a second); I was really cash strapped for my second flex player so I decided I would try and grab as many top tier tight ends as I could. That’s how I ended up with Ebron (my favorite tight end last year who still plays with Andrew Luck), Greg Olson (if he is still Greg Olson he has Top 5 upside), Trey Burton (young top 20 tight end) and Dallas Goedert (young top 20 tight end who is also getting rave reviews heading into the season). I am not saying the strategy is a good one, but at the time it was the best way for me to hoard top 20 guys at their position.
  3. Mike Evans is going to have a huge year. Keep that in mind when you are doing any fantasy football drafts. Also, since we are speaking of Evans: Did you know if he reaches 1,000 yards receiving this season he will join Randy Moss as the only players in NFL history to start his career with six straight 1,000 yard receiving years #TheMoreYouKnow.
  4. Knowing what I know now; I would not have paid $14 for Rodgers when I could have gotten another quality position starter with that money while still drafting Baker & Tommy. With that said; I am def not going to regret having A-Rod on my team. And who knows, maybe I’ll be able to trade Baker for someone I could not have bought for a buck during the draft (Remember just because the draft is over doesn't mean the work stops. You always gotta be wheelin and dealing to win fantasy).
  5. Again,  knowing what I know after the draft, I would not have spent $62 dollars on Run CMC. Instead, I would have used that money to get two players from a group that consisted of AJ Green ($26) Antonio Brown ($34) Sony Michelle ($23) Nick Chubb ($23) Derrick Henry ($26) or T.Y. Hilton ($23).
Let me expand on points #4 and #5 so I can show y 'all another way this draft could have turned out. You see if I would have kept the money from Rodgers and Run CMC I could have ended up with a team that looked something like this: QB: Baker Mayfield ($2) Tom Brady ($1) RB: David Johnson ($47) Nick Chubb ($23) Leonard Fournette ($29) Adrian Peterson ($1) WR: Mike Evans ($34) Julian Edelman ($16) Antonio Brown ($34) Marvin Jones Jr ($6) Courtland Sutton ($1) DK Metcalf ($1) Parrish Campbell ($1)

TE: Evan Engram ($5) Eric Ebron ($2) Dallas Goedert ($1) Greg Olson (#1)

Starting Line Up:
QB: Baker or Tom (Top 7 QB & GOAT Brady)
RB: David Johnson (Top 5 RB)
RB: Leonard Fournette (Top 20 RB)
WR: Antonio Brown (Top 10 WR)
WR: Mike Evans: (Top 10 WR)
TE: Eric Ebron or Engram (Both Top 10 Tight Ends)
Flex: Nick Chubb (Top 15 RB)
Flex: Julian Edelman (GOAT Brady's favorite target)
K: TBD
D:TBD

So what team would you rather have? 

I know the answer for me is the second team.

Does that mean I think the team I actually drafted can't or won't win? Absolutely not. I love my team. It has tons of protentional . But I am also man enough to admit that said team could have been better if The Informer had had a little more knowledge heading into the draft. 

Next time I will have that knowledge. And so will you. 

Now if you will excuse me, it’s time to open up a Natty and go find another team to draft.

#TheQuestFor50TeamsContinues.