Friday, September 25, 2015

The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks: Week 3



After picking 11-5 against the spread in Week 2 of the 2015 NFL Season, The Informer is once again ready to make the people money. So with John Football Clipboard hand gestures on the mind, let’s crack those Natties and get right to Week 3 of The Informer’s 2015 NFL Picks Challenge.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)

Here is the deal folks; only an absolute moron would pick Kirk Cousins on the road in Prime-time against an 0-2 Giants team that was playing for their season. So if you know someone who was actually dumb enough to bet Kirk "INT" Cousins last night, you have The Informer’s permission to kick that d-bag squarely in the gonads.


Trust me, they deserve it.
Before we wrap this game up, here is The Informer’s Week 3 stat of the day: Did you know through his first 15 NFL games the great Randy Moss had 64 receptions for 1,281 yards and 16 TDs (an NFL record for TDs through 15 games)? Did you also know through his first 15 NFL games the "ODB" Odell Beckham Jr. has 110 receptions for 1,574 yards (an NFL record for receptions & yards through 15 games) and 14 TDs?

Just saying; enjoy what you are watching in New York, because right now it is pure greatness in the making.

Pick: Skins (+3.5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ ST LOUIS RAMS (+1.5)


Speaking of greatness: Antonio Brown is on pace for 144 receptions 2,624 yards and 16 TDs. Now it would be absurd to think Brown can keep this up (164 yards a game is ridiculous), but if he is able to keep up a semi-pace like say 120 yards a games than he would become the first NFL receiver to reach 2,000 yards in a single season. Again, it is early in the season, but with this Pittsburgh offense, and the greatness of Brown, it is not out of the realm of possibility, right?

As for the gambling portion of this game; since the line is a tossup, The Informer has no choice but to bet against 85% of the public.

Pick: Rams (+1.5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5)


The last time Adrian Peterson played the San Diego Chargers at home was in 2007 and this happened . . .




So yea . . . The Informer is betting Adrian Peterson on Sunday.

Pick: Vikings (-2.5)

TAMPA BAY @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5)


Do we really live in a world where Ryan Mallet and the Houston Texans are favored by 6.5 points even though they are playing without Arian Foster and possibly DeAndre Hopkins (he was undergoing concussion treatment on Thursday)?

Give The Informer the points and the rookie quarterback on the road against J.J. Watt. I mean, what could possibly go wrong?

Pick: Tampa Bay (+6.5)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (+2)


Gambling rule #700: If the spread is less than three and you have the chance to bet against Brandon Weeden YOU ALWAYS BET AGAINST BRANDON WEEDEN!!!

Pick: Falcons (-2)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK JETS (-2.5)


The Informer is going to lose so much money this season betting against the New York Jets #EventuallyRyanFitzpatrickWillRealizeHeIsRyanFitzpatrick.

Pick: Eagles (+2.5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTEHRS (-4.5)


Shhhhh . . . Be very very quiet. We don’t want to let Vegas know the Panthers and Cam Newton, despite playing without wide receivers, are actually a really good team.

Pick: Panthers (-4.5)


CINNCINATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5)

There is no way on Tebow's Green Earth that the red headed gunslinger is going to make history by handing the Ravens their first 0-3 start in the history of Harbaugh, right?


Pick: Bengals (+2.5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5)


Things The Informer would rather do than have to watch this game: Excersice; eat right; stop drinking Natties; check my cholesterol; shave my you know what parts with a Rambo knife; give up Blimpies; smoke crack with Lawrence Taylor (allegedly); trade places with Andy Dufrane during that time when "The Sisters" took a liking to him; break into Edward Norton's house in the middle of the night; cross the streams; have unprotected carnal relations with Jenny Gump; take a right hook from Mike Tyson; stab my eye out with a soldering iron; drink milk from a saucer; watch every episode of Keeping Up with the Kardashians; and finally, bet against 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning in Prime-time.

In other words, this game sucks donkey balls.

Pick: Raiders (+3.5)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)


The Informer has no idea which 49ers team is going to show up. Is it the team that played flawless "run and play defense first" football in Week 1? Or will it be the dumpster fire that got boat-raced out of Pittsburgh in Week 2?

Since we can't predict which 49ers team we are getting, The Informer has to go with the surest team in the NFL. Also, there is the whole never, even if there is a fire, bet against Bruce Arians thing.

Pick: Cardinals (-6.5)


(The Informer after the pick stat Last week, after his first career three TD game, Larry Fitzgerald became just the 10th receiver to join the 12,000 yard 90 TD club. The "Original Predator" is now forever linked with; Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Chris Carter, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Tim Brown, Issac Bruce, Tony Gonzalez and the great Steve Largent.)

INDANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (+3)

The Informer: "Hey Andrew Luck, will you please eat a Snickers?"

Andrew Luck: "Why?"

The Informer: "Because you play like a drunk Jay Cutler when you are hungry."

Seriously, Andrew Luck has been "Jay Cutler" awful through two games this season. Don’t worry though, that trend is not going to continue. It was just a byproduct of the greatest young QB in NFL history getting to know his new teammates (Frank Gore & Andre Johnson), some horrible "Pep Hamilton System" play calling (Stop trying to be a run first pound the ball offense . . . For the love of Tebow you have freaking Andrew Luck as your quarterback . . . F***ING USE HIM!!!) and of course the fact the Colts have played two of the 10 best defenses in the NFL.

Going 0-2 under those conditions could happen to anyone. That all stops this week though as Luck rights the ship and starts the march to his fourth straight 11 win season.

Pick: Colts (-3)

CHICAGO BEARS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14.5)


What a dilemma. Should The Informer follow the "two touchdown underdog rule" or the "always bet against Jimmy Clausen on the road against a desperate 0-2 Seattle team during the same week that Cam Chancellor returns to the lineup no matter how big the spread is rule"?

This really is a hard one.

"Hey Informer, did you hear that unnamed sources have confirmed that HGH sales (allegedly) have reached an all-time high in the Seattle area this past week?"

No figment of The Informer’s imagination, I had not heard that obviously concrete fact (allegedly) about the Seattle area. Talk about a game changer. Now, are we sure it was HGH and not just over the counter non performance enhancing Adderall so Seattle could study better?

Either way, if Seattle is going to be laser-focused in their home opener than there really is only one way to bet this game.

Pick: Seattle (-14.5)

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3)


Ace Ventura, would you like to say a few words about this game?




Well said Ace.

As for the pick, The Informer is backing the home team while preparing for a push (this is going to be a last second field goal game).

Pick: Dolphins (-3)


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5)

The NFL gambling rules clearly state whenever a team is getting two touchdowns, you bet the dog. You don’t ask questions, you just do it. And since The Informer already ignored this rule once, there is no choice but to back the Jags on the road against Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

"Holy f***ing s**t Informer . . . Will you please re-read that last sentence. You just said to bet Blake Bortles on the road against Tom Brady during Tom Brady's 'I am pissed at the NFL and going to win the 2015 NFL MVP Award in spite season.' Seriously, picking the Jags this week maybe the dumbest most idiotic thing you have ever done. Take it back right now before I have to threaten your life you fat-fat moron."

Listen, for the bottom of The Informer's black liver "I apologize" and take it all back. The Informer had one too many Bortles & James wine coolers and one thing led to another. I know that things were said and for that "I am sorry." It was wrong and it will never happen again. The Informer promises. And so we are all clear, there is no way in the bluest of blue hells The Informer is going to bet against Tom Brady this weekend. The above sentence was one drunken mistake. Nothing more.

Pick: Patriots (-13.5)

DENVER BRONCOS @ DETROIT LIONS (+3)


Everyone say it with me . . .

5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME !!!

Somebody please get Simba on the phone, because The Informer just found his Lion King Lock of the Week.

Pick: LKLOTW Donkeys (-3)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)


Everyone say it with me . . .

2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME!!!

Pick: Packers (-6.5)

Have a great Week 3 everyone. May it be filled with Blimpies, Natty Lights and enough winning parlays to buy dem apple bottom jeans and the boots with the fur.




#NFLPicks #FloRida #WinnerWinnerBlimpiesDinner

Friday, September 18, 2015

The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks: Week 2


Ladies and gentlemen welcome to Week 2 of The Informer’s 2015 NFL Picks Challenge. After one week of gambling, The Informer is off to a solid 9-6-1 (56%) record against the spread. Obviously, The Informer is thrilled with his 9-6-1 start, but there were still mistakes that could have been avoided (like betting Jacksonville at home) that would have made Week 1 even more lucrative. Never fear though, The Informer promises he has learned from said mistakes and rest assured they will never happen again.

Now before we begin today, The Informer needs to point out that last week Vegas took it on the chin when it came to NFL betting. The Informer does not remember the exact number (I am way to lazy to look it up), but thanks to public favorites like Green Bay and Miami covering, the people in Vegas were not able to build a new Casino.

The Informer is pointing this out to remind everyone that Vegas does not enjoy when they are unable to build new Casinos. They hate it even more when the reason they can't build said new Casino is because they had to give random people tons of money.

So because last week Vegas took such a beating, The Informer wants to warn the public bettor to be prepared for a topsy-turvy Week 2 where unexpected stuff happens (FYI 70% of the public betting K.C. last night knows exactly what The Informer is talking about).

On that note, let’s crack open the Natties and make some money.

DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3)

(The Informer note Here is what I wrote Thursday morning before kickoff between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.)

"Hey Informer, it is time to give up the charade. Your boy Peyton ‘noodle arm’ Manning is officially done. Please don’t try and defend him either. We all watched it last Sunday against the Ravens. The dude can no longer play football. Admit it, he is D.O.N.E . . . DONE!!!"

Guys, I am not going to lie to you last week was ugly. Manning looked lost, confused, bewildered, bald, downtrodden, constipated at times, upset and ancy in his pancy. However you want to describe it, the fact is the greatest regular season quarterback ever played like a flaming bag of dumpster fire shit.

But here is the thing; even though Manning played poorly, The Informer will never say he is done. You can call me stupid, na├»ve, or a dreamer; but The Informer refuses to live in a world where the 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning is no longer the 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning.

So until they pull Peyton Manning’s lifeless football corpse from my dead cold fingers, The Informer is going to keep riding the Manning ship even if it is heading to the bottom of the Ocean. And that ride continues Thursday night with The Informer making Peyton Manning -- who is getting points in prime-time against a team he has beaten eight straight games -- the Lion King Lock of the Week.

The 5X NFL MVP is not done folks.

Pick: LKLOTW Donkeys (+3)

(The Informer note Here is what I wrote after watching the Broncos insane 31-24 come-from behind victory over the Chiefs.)

Okay The Informer really has to ask: What in the hell is Gary Kubiak doing? Why is he hell bent on making the 5X NFL MVP a roll out of the pocket and throw on the run quarterback? Seriously, has Kubiak watched football for the past three years? Peyton Manning does not win football games by huddling after every single play while the defense catches their breath. Peyton Manning wins football games by upping the tempo, slinging laser rocket ducks from the shotgun and keeping the defense on their toes by applying constant pressure with audibles and play calls from the line of scrimmage.

Bascially, Manning has won the past three years by playing quarterback chess while the opposing defenses are stuck playing par-cheesy.

So what does Coach Kubiak ? He tries to turn "Mr. 7000" into a regular quarterback by making him huddle after every play (which also allows the defense a chance to huddle) and by making a 39-year old man, who has had four neck surgeries, throw ridiculous bootleg passes.

Folks, please re-read that last sentence. The Broncos new genius coach is making Peyton Manning do naked bootlegs. Again, we are talking about Peyton Manning, a guy who can barely walk, let alone run naked bootleg passes that force him to make throws on the run.

It does not make any f****** sense.

And please don’t start in with the "well, Manning does not have it anymore" bullshit. For those making that argument here is my question: Did you see what happened when the Broncos went no huddle for the first time last night and let Manning call the plays at the line? They scored. Then, did you see what happened when Manning needed to drive 80-yards in one minute to tie the game? Manning went 80-yards and tied the damn game.

Listen, the point of all of this is simple: If you let Manning be Manning, the greatest regular season quarterback in the history of football is going to be great. We have seen it for the last three years and we saw it again last night.

Now someone just needs to explain to Gary Kubiak that when you have a quarterback named Peyton Manning you run whatever f****** system Peyton Manning wants to run. You don’t try to turn him into a shittier version of Matt Schaub.

Okay, now that we got the Gary Kubiak "three and out system" covered, here are five more thoughts from Thursday Night’s miracle Denver win.

5. Chiefs rookie cornerback Marcus Peters is going to be an All-Pro sooner rather than later.

4. Thanks to Justin Houston, DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller; The Informer can say for the first time ever that he really enjoyed watching defenses play football. Those three dudes are a sight to be seen when rushing the passer.

3. C.J. Anderson is the reason The Informer would rather pick one of the stud quarterbacks (like Aaron Rodgers) when it comes to the back end of the first round of fantasy drafts.

2. The Informer knows we already covered this, but what kind of a coach builds an offense that does not focus on getting the ball into Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas’ hands?

1. If both the Broncos and Chiefs are not in the playoffs come January, The Informer will be absolutely shocked.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3)

Gambling rules clearly state that you never, not even if there was a fire, bet Ryan Mallet on the road.

Pick: Panthers (-3)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1)

Did you know Jim Brown and Earl Campbell are the only players who have won the NFL MVP during their rookie seasons? The Informer is just throwing that out there. There is no reason at all. I just wanted to make sure everyone knew that impressive little tidbit about NFL history. Again, it is pure coincidence The Informer put it here in the Titans sections.

Anyways, which means please do not interrupt while The Informer is fitting Marcus Mariota for his Gold Jacket, when it comes to gambling on this game, The Informer feels like we have to point out the fact that this line started at Cleveland (-2) and has since moved all the way to Tennessee (-1).

For those who do not know, this type of line movement means every single bet being placed is on a rookie quarterback playing on the road for the first time. In other words, "RED FLAGS!!!". So please beware and gamble with caution on this game.

Now with all of the "red flags" in consideration, The Informer will be putting Mariota in every one of his Super Picks Contests, SurvivorPolls, Three-Team Teasers, Straight Wagers and Parlays #MariotaForPresident #IfinallyHaveAnExcuseToWearMyMossTitansJersey #FreeCollegeForEveryone.

Pick: Titans (-1)

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CHICAGO BEARS (+1.5)

Did you all see Cardinals running back David Johnson’s first NFL TD?



Doesn't that look exactly like Adrian Peterson's first NFL TD?



#SkyIsTheLimit

As far as gambling on this game goes, The Informer is never going to bet against Bruce Arians again. It is not a smart financial decision. Also, since The Informer’s Lion King Lock of the Week was played before this article was published (The Informer did tweet out the Broncos pick), we are going to go ahead and make Carson Palmer and new Adrian Peterson the second Lion King Lock of the Week.

Pick: LKLOTW Cardinals (-1.5)

Here is proof of said tweet . . .
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINNCINATTI BENGALS (-3)

Normally, The Informer would be all over the West Coast team flying to the East Coast for a noon game, but in this case that rule does not really apply because the Bengals spent last weekend on the West Coast; which means they are also technically flying West-to-East for this game.

So really this game comes down to who The Informer wants to root for. In this case, The Informer is going to root for "The Sickness" A.J. Green so he is going to be betting on "The Sickness" A.J. Green.

Also, Andy Dalton has won his last three home openers by an average of 10 points so that has to count for something.

Pick: Bengals (-3)

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3)

The Informer has one question about each of these two teams.

Lions: How in the hell does Calvin Johnson only have three passes thrown his direction?

Vikings: How in the hell does Adrian Peterson only get 10 carries in a game?

The team who decides to fix their above question this week is the team that will win this game.

Pick: Vikings (-3)

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS (-10)

Here is The Informer’s brilliant rational for betting Tampa on the road: In Week 5 of the 2014 NFL Season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went into the Super Dome as a double digit underdog and only lost by six points so we know they can cover a double digit spread.

Pretty sound reasoning, right (shaking head no).

In case you are not convinced, here is an actual logical reason to back Famous Jameis on the road:

86% of the public is betting the Saints. (Remember the whole Vegas and Casinos thingy?)

Pick: Tampa Bay (+10)

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+6)

Remember last week when The Informer made the mistake of betting the Jacksonville Jaguars at home? Yea . . . That will never happen again.

Pick: Jaguars (+6)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons are going to win this game outright. Don’t be fooled by the close game last Sunday night, the New York Giants are terrible and will not be able to stop the high flying Atlanta offense.

Look for Julio Jones to continue his domination of the NFL with another 100-yard game while leading the Falcons to a double digit victory.

Pick: Falcons (+2.5)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+5.5)

The Informer has a little secret for anyone who did not stay up for the Monday Nightcap in Week 1: The San Francisco 49ers are going to be a tough team to play this season. They still have that hardcore run first offense (Carolos Hyde is a stud in the making), and even better, thanks to the return of Navarro Bowman, they still have their physical defense.

The Informer knows overreacting to the first week can be a slippery slope, but if Week 1 is any indication that means San Fran is going to be playing meaningful football late into the 2015 season.

Pick: 49ers (+5.5)

ST LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3.5)

Kevin McCallister, can you please explain to the world how The Informer feels about this game?



Pick: Rams (-3.5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS (+1)

The Informer can’t in good conscious pick Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor over Tom Brady. Not when Brady is playing in "Show Goodell how my a** taste" mode.

Pick: Patriots (-1)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS (+5.5)

If you are a person who would lay a bet on the Raiders in a game where Matt McGloin could be prominently involved, then you really need to call 1-800-BETSOFF.

Pick: Ravens (-5.5)

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5.5)

The Informer is going to jump on the points and hope "Mr Clutch" Tony Romo shows up again on Sunday.

Pick: Cowboys (+5.5)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5)

Can the defending NFC Champions really start the season 0-2? Will Aaron Rodgers finally beat Russell Wilson (he is 0-3 including playoffs)? Can the Packers erase the memory of the "Fail Mary", the "Opening Day Massacre", and the NFC Championship Game? Is Cam Chancelor really going to hold out for the next three seasons? Is James Jones Batman? Is Marcus Mariota going to be elected President? Is Marshawn Lynch’s mom going to be live tweeting this game with her feelings on the play calling? Speaking of play calling: How come the Seattle Seahawks can’t convert on fourth and one? I am the only one who is really excited for this game?

Ask you can see, The Informer has a lot of questions heading into Sunday night.

Pick: Packers (-3.5)

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7)

For everyone who is currently jumping off of the Colts 2015 bandwagon please keep this in mind: During Week 1 of the 2014 NFL Season the New England Patriots lost on the road 33-20 and yet they were still able to overcome the defeat to win the Super Bowl. Furthermore, in 2014 the Colts started the season 0-2, before rebounding to make a run to the AFC Title game.

So please, before you injure yourself jumping, remember that it is a long season and the Colts still have Andrew Luck.

In other words, they will be fine.

As for this game; under no circumstances will The Informer ever bet Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against Andrew Luck in Prime-time. It does not matter how poor the Colts looked in Week 1, or how good the Jets played, there is nothing on the face of Tebow’s Green Earth that will ever make me call my fake bookie and say the words, "Give me the Harvard man".

Pick: Colts (-7)

Have a great Week 2. May it be filled with winning bets, lots of Natties and all the Blimpies you can handle. Now D.J. please hit The Informer's Week 2 music . . .



#BetItWhileTheBettinIsGood #TooShort #WinnerWinnerBlimpiesDinner

Saturday, September 12, 2015

The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks: Week 1



Can you BOLIEVE it is year eight of The Informer writing this NFL Picks column? Eight freaking years man? I guess the old saying really is true, "time totally disappears when you are an alcoholic."

Natty Light abuse aside, one thing that happened over the course of the past eight seasons is The Informer has learned a lesson or two about NFL gambling.

Whether it is Vegas never loses (see New England-Pittsburgh push if you need evidence of that), bookies are not your best friend, parlays are a sucker bet, teasers are the devil, or that you never -- not even if there is a fire -- bet against Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in prime-time; The Informer has been made a wiser gambler by picking every game each week.

Of course, since The Informer is a wiser man from these past eight years, he has actually developed a set of NFL gambling rules that he never always follows in order to maximize the potential on fake illegal wagers he places.

These are the so called "golden rules" The Informer has used to pick over 52% against the spread four of the last five seasons (history shows they work).

These are also the "golden rules" The Informer wants to share with his reader (yes singular) today so that we can all enjoy in the spoils that comes from making fake illegal wagers with some dude named Fat Tuna Fish.

So with that in mind, before we get to the Week 1 picks, here are the rules . . .

Rule #1

As we mentioned above you never bet against Tom Brady or 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning in Prime-time (If they are playing each other in prime-time take the home quarterback).

Rule #2

Be careful against the home underdog. Unless of course that dog is named Jacksonville.

Rule #3

Bet the first half under. Don’t question the why, just do it.

Rule #4

If 80% of the public is betting one way, you should bet the other. Again, there is a reason Vegas builds Casinos, and it is not because the public is good at gambling.

Rule #5

Don’t lose money betting a crappy quarterback. The Informer is talking about guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Texans QB, and whatever dumpster fire they start in Cleveland.

Rule #6

West Coast teams flying to the East Coast for a noon game have a hard time covering the spread.

Rule #7

Same thing goes for the team coming off of a huge victory the week before (this is called a letdown game and they are real).

Rule #8

If the spread is 14 or higher, always take the dog.

Rule #9

If two garbage teams are playing always take the points.

Rule #10

When it comes to Week 1; throw all of the rules out because it is going to be a clusterf*** of mass gambling proportions that nobody except Vegas can accurately predict (Week 1 is by far the hardest week to handicap).

Okay . . . Now that we have all of the rules covered: D.J. could you please hit The Informer’s music so we can f****** gamble?



Dear Lord, no one wants to here the damn "Duck Song" before they gamble. Come on D.J. you can do better than that.



Yes beer is good, we can agree there, but could we maybe play something a little more upbeat and joyful? You know, some Hammer, or Taylor Swift? Hell, you can even play that Wizzard Khalifa guy. The Informer doesn't care, just put a funky-fresh beat on so we can get this show on the road.



Holy f**k!!! Is that Hanson? Just wow . . . This column has officially reached an all-time low. Will everyone just please crack's open their Natties and we will pretend this opening never happened?

Does that sound good to y'all?

Good . . . Great . . . Grand . . .Wonderful!!!

And on that note, ladies and gentlemen welcome to Week 1 of The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks Column.

As always, I hope you all enjoy #MMMbop.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-7)

Since 2011 the Green Bay Packers are 9-1 (including playoffs) against the Chicago Bears. In those games the Packers have won by seven or more points eight of the nine times. Furthermore; last season the Packers outscored Chicago 93-31.

Do you all see what The Informer is getting at here?

"Hey Informer, did you know that 86% of the public is currently betting the Packers? Isn’t that one of your rules? To always bet against the big public bet? Also, did you know that 15 of the 30 people in your NFL suicide poll picked the Packers on Sunday? Do you see what I am getting at?"

Soooo . . . The figment of my imagination is saying that the smart bet is on Jay Cutler and the Bears because this is the way to obvious game that keeps hotel lights on in Vegas? Okay, that is a fair point, but the figment of my imagination is over looking one key thing about this pick: There is no way in the bluest of blue hells The Informer is going to bet Jay Cutler against the Packers.

Pick: Packers (-7)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-1)

The Informer swears he is done arguing against everyone who thinks that 2014 J.J. Watt had the greatest single season any football player has ever had in the 96-year history of the NFL.

You all win.

After the season he had, J.J. Watt should have won the MVP, been named President of the Untied States and been allowed to marry Linsey Lohan (is Linsey Lohan still a thing? Cameron Diaz? Who is the hot chick these days?)

With that concession being made, there is one question The Informer would like to ask: If Watt’s season was so great, what does that say about Justin Houston and his NFL leading 22 sacks in 2014?

I mean if 20.5 sacks is the greatest ever, what does that mean for 22? Does it mean we should retroactively go back and make Justin Houston the MVP instead of Watt? Just saying, didn’t Justin help the Chiefs not make the playoffs the same exact way Watt helped the Texans (that answer is yes)? So then why is Watt the greatest player ever and Houston is not? And why does it bother me so damn much that people are anointing J.J. Watt the greatest thing since sliced Blimpies?

Okay, so that was more like four questions, but you get the point. Justin Houston is a beast on defense. J.J. Watt is a beast on defense. And neither guy should have been the 2014 NFL MVP.

End of weekly "J.J. Watt is not the greatest ever" rant.

As for the game, The Informer is going with the Chiefs because they have a reliable quarterback, Jamaal Charles and a great defense while the Texans have Brian Hoyer and Alfred Blue.

Also, if you can bet game props, put some dough on Jeremy Maclin catching a touchdown. Something tells me the Chiefs (who did not throw a single TD pass to a WR last year) are going to try and get Maclin involved early and often on Sunday.

Pick: Chiefs (+1)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW YORK JETS (-3.5)

This game sucks. In the words of Forrest Gump, "that is all I have to say about that."

Pick: Browns (+3.5)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BUFFALO BILLS (+2.5)

Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor versus 2015 NFL MVP Andrew Luck?

Wow, talk about a toss-up. No really, The Informer is totally torn on this one. Sure, Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the NFL, but the Bills are starting Tryod "The Cannon" Taylor. Think about that for a second, the dude's middle name is "The Cannon". How can this guy not cover 2.5 points against a team The Informer thinks will be a Super Bowl contender in 2015?

Seriously, is there anything scarier in Vegas than hearing the words "Tyrod 'The Cannon' Taylor is getting 2.5 points against Andrew Luck?"

To answer the next question: Yes The Informer is just f******* with you. The Colts are obviously this week's Lion King Lock of the Week.

Lock and load Ramathorn.

Pick: LKLOTW Colts (-2.5)

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3.5)

If gambling these past eight years has taught The Informer anything, it is when there are three sure fire road favorites to choose from (Colts, Packers & Dolphins), you can bank on something weird happening causing at least one of the teams to not cover.

So the question now becomes: What should The Informer do? Back a worthless Kirk Cousins against The informer’s favorite breakout player of 2015 --Ryan "RT1" Tannehill? Go back to the top of the article and change the pick so that he is either betting against Aaron Rodgers (and 86% of the public) or Andrew Luck while siding with Jay Cutler or Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor? Or should The Informer completely ignore all of his own rules and put Tannehill, Luck and Rodgers in a three-teamer that will pay for my kid’s college?

Honestly, if you have been reading The Informer for the past eight seasons you know exactly where this is heading #FreeCollegeForEveryone

Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3)

Instead of talking about this game, how about we share some funny "Patriots are cheaters memes"?

There is this one . . .


And this one . . .


Then there is Classic Mel . . .


Shirtless Tom Brady hugging a football?


Then there is this one . . .


This one is really funny . . .


And last but not least . . .


LOL . . . The HGHawks. What a great meme.

Pick: Jags (+3)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS (+4)

Speaking of the HGHawks, The Informer does not care that Seattle has not covered the last three times they went to St. Louis; they will win and cover this game. Watch for a huge two TD performance from the HGHawks newest tight end addition.

Pick: Seahawks (-4)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ TAMPA BAY (-3)

Number one on the list of things The Informer never thought he would say: "I can’t freaking wait to watch the Titans-Bucs game on Sunday".

That is not a lie. The Informer is actually excited to watch the Mariota-Winston showdown. It should be a fun one.

When it comes to betting this game, The Informer is backing the Titans because of their defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. No really, did you know that since 1995 Dick LeBeau is 26-3 versus rookie QBs? Now, The Informer has never claimed to be a rocket Scientologist, but even I know that a 26-3 record is impressive.

So good luck on Sunday Jameis. The Informer will be rooting for you, but he will be betting on Tennessee blue.

Pick: Titans (+3)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3)

75% of the public betting against Drew Brees? The Informer will take them odds.

Pick: Saints (+3)

DETROITS LIONS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3)

Who is up for a game of let’s compare Calvin, Randy and Jerry’s first eight seasons?

Calvin Johnson: 643 receptions, 10,405 yards, 74 TDs and six 1,000 yard seasons

Jerry Rice: 610 receptions, 10,273 yards, 103 TDs and seven 1,000 yard seasons

Randy Moss: 634 receptions, 10,147, 98 TDs and seven 1,000 yard seasons

In the immortal word's of Bill Walton, "Who's better?"

Pick: Lions (+3)

CINCINATTI BENGALS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3)

The Informer really wanted to pick the Raiders in this game, because contrary to popular opinion the Raiders are going to be vastly improved this year, but this is Week 1; which means The Informer has to take the Bengals and the red-headed gunslinger because they are the better team.

Pick: Bengals (-3)

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (+4.5)

Last season 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning threw for 4,727 yards (the second most in his career) despite not having any arm strength, not being able to play in the cold and having a torn quadriceps.

Last season 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning threw 39 touchdowns (behind only Andrew Luck who had 40) despite the fact that the National Media said he was too old to still play at a high level.

And finally, last season was the eleventh straight year Manning finished with a completion percentage above 65% percent despite the fact that he had four neck surgeries three years ago and has since had no feelings in his fingertips.

What is The Informer’s point?

Pretty simple; the 5x NFL MVP Peyton Manning would not have came back to play this season if he was not still going to be Peyton 5x NFL MVP freaking Manning.

So to all of the people who are again saying (this will be the fourth straight year of the Manning is done rhetoric) that this is the year Manning dies; please stop. Manning is still going to be good for 4,000 yards, 30+ TD passes and a "laser-rocket arm" while leading a loaded Broncos team to their fourth straight AFC West title.

Pick: Broncos (-4.5)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5)

Scoring machine Dez Bryant going head to head with Odell Beckham Jr., aka the man that NFL physics forget. Talk about giving a guy a "Mike's friend from Growing Pains in sweatpants".

As for the gambling portion of this contest, The Informer is going to back the Giants because this game is going to come down to a Cowboys last second field goal. So if The Informer is right, that means the Cowboys will win, but will not cover the 6.5 points.

That folks is called standard gambling math.

Pick: Giants (+6.5)




PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ ATLANTA FALCONS (+3)

The Informer really likes the Philadelphia Eagles this season. If Sam Bradford can stay healthy, this is going to be a really, really, good team. So of course, since The Informer absolutely loves the Eagles this year, he is going to pick against them Week 1.

For those that don't know, The Informer is a moron.

Pick: Falcons (+3)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5)

Other than the Philadelphia Eagles, there is not another team getting more love around the nation than the Minnesota Vikings. With the return of the 10,000 yard man, the growth of Ted Football and a new stadium on the horizon; the sky is the limit for the 2015 Minnesota Vikings.

Well, The Informer would like to see it before he starts giving points on the road to a team that won seven games in 2014.

Pick: 49ers (+2.5)

That is a wrap folks. Please enjoy Week 1. May your Sunday be filled with winning parlays, cases of Natty and all the Blimpies a stomach can handle.

Now D.J. let's try this one last time: Will you please hit the dance music and take us home?



#FOOTBALLISBACKBABY!!! #RAISEUP!!!

(The Informer note - Just so everyone knows, The Question will be back next week. Do to some scheduling issues we were not able to get his picks edited into the article. Don't worry though, to keep things on the up and up (wouldn't want him to pretend he went undefeated in Week 1) I will post his picks on my twitter before kickoff Sunday. Mahalo.)


Thursday, September 10, 2015

2015 NFL Season Prop Bets & Thursday Night Pick



After months of talking about deflated balls, courtroom dramas, overbearing commissioners, tainted legacies and all the other garbage that comes with the offseason; we can finally talk about actual football.

No longer will we have to spend endless nights listening to pundits explain why it is wrong for rookies to have a fall guy. No longer will we have to read 10,000 word stories about scandals from the year 2000. And best of all, no longer will we have to listen to "talking head blowhards" debate whether or not Tim Tebow is better than RG3-13.

Nope. All of the garbage is done. For the next five months the only thing that matters is the actual football being played on Sunday.

Whether it is Andrew Luck making the MVP leap; Peyton Manning proving he is still the 5x NFL MVP; Adrian Peterson canceling Christmas; Ryan "RT1" Tannehill becoming elite; Calvin Johnson regaining his spot as the best WR in the game; Jay Cutler causing a five month long depression in the Windy City; J.J. Watt; Rex Ryan trying to end the Buffalo Bills' playoff drought; Khalil Mack trying to bring respect to Oakland; Mariota vs. Winston; Tom Brady vs. the World; Odell Beckham Jr. defying the laws of NFL gravity; or Alex Smith trying to game manage his team to a Super Bowl; it is finally time to stop the speculating and start watching the storylines play out on the field.

Oh yea . . . And did The Informer mention the sweet-sweet return of the parlay, the teaser, the prop bet, the first half under, Peyton Manning in prime-time, home underdogs, long odds, short odds, money lines, points spreads, hedging, miracle covers and betting against Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and whomever is starting for the Cleveland Browns?

Speaking of gambling; since the NFL season is kicking off in less then 12 hours, for today’s article The Informer thought we would break down all of the "fake" prop bets he made for this season, before picking tonight’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots.

So with that in mind, let’s stop all the jibber-jabber and start the gambling.

(The Informer note As always, please keep in mind that these are all hypothetical wagers that should not be taken seriously unless you live in the great state of Las Vegas where gambling is legal. Furthermore; it needs to be noted that The Informer in no way condones, or advises, anyone to sign up for an illegal offshore Caribbean gambling website like RealBet, SportsBook, USABets, TopBet, Bovada, or take part in any other activity where a person could make illegal wagers. Doing so is not only illegal, but it is considered a mortal sin in most of the world’s religions. So again, what you are about to read is for entertainment purposes only. Thank you and enjoy.)
 

2015 NFL SEASON PROP BETS

Andrew Luck over 34 TD passes

This is actually The Informer’s Lion King Lock of the Year. In other words, "Lock and load Ramathorn."

Drew Brees over 4,600 passing yards

Drew Brees has passed for over 4,600 yards five straight years and six of the last seven. In the world of gambling that is what we like to call a trend. And no, losing a tight end who had less than 1,000 yards receiving last season does not scare The Informer one bit.

Adrian Peterson over 1,250 yards rushing

Do you all remember the last time people told Adrian Peterson he would not be the same? Yea . . . So does The Informer.

A.J. Green over 1,200 yards receiving yards

The Informer likes this bet because A.J. "The Sickness" Green is about to become just the second guy in the history of the NFL to finish with at least 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first five seasons; which makes this a decent prop bet.

For those wondering, the great Randy Moss is currently the only guy to ever accomplish this feat.

Calvin Johnson over 10 TD catches

"The Shredder" is going to regain his title as the best in the business by racking up touchdowns at an alarming rate.

Julio Jones over 1,300 yards

The Informer made this fake bet before Julio Jones signed his new contract under the assumption that Jones was about to have a great "contract season". With that said; only 1,300 yards for Julio seems like a steal of a bet.

Dez Bryant over 11.5 TD catches

Did you know that there is not a single player in the NFL who can say they have caught more touchdowns (56) than Dez Bryant since the former Oklahoma State WR entered the NFL in 2010?

Ryan Tannehill over 4,000 yards passing

Ryan Tannehill is going to have a monster season so you might as well win money watching him do it.

Derek Carr over 21 TD passes

Derek Carr had 21 TD passes as a rookie even though he played the entire season without one single receiver who would actually be considered an NFL caliber player. So thinking he will have at least that many as a second year player after the Raiders added Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper is not that much of a stretch.

Ameer Abdullah to win ROY (+1300)

Marcus Mariota to win ROY (+600)

The Informer likes both of these guys a lot. And with long odds, these are lottery tickets that could pay well in the end.

Tampa Bay wins the NFC South (+555)

The Informer was drunk when he made this bet.

Arizona (+500), San Francisco (+1100) and Rams (+750) to win NFC West

The thinking here is that the Super Bowl hangover curse is a real thing and that Seattle, after four straight years of winning, is due for an "everything goes wrong" type of season. So if everything does go wrong in Seattle this season, that means The Informer wins money. And if it doesn’t then The Informer will have another excuse to hate the HGHawks.

Texans under 8.5 wins (+110)
 

Ask anyone in the National media and they will tell you that J.J. Watt had the greatest season in the history of football last year. And you know what? The Texans still barely won nine games. So the thinking here is that Houston will be worse thanks to the facts that they lost Andre Johnson (a future Hall of Famer), they have an injured Arian Foster, they don’t have an NFL caliber starting QB and Watt who again had the greatest season in the 96 year NFL history a year ago is due to come back down to Earth at least a little. Add that all up, and it feels like they could be a half game worse than a season ago.


Denver over 10.5 wins (+110)

All Peyton Manning does is win 11 football games and the AFC West every year.

Skins under 6.5 wins (-110)

Is the Friday before Week 1 to early to mark this bet as a "W"?

Colts over 11 wins (-110)

Andrew Luck has won at least 11 games every year he has played in the NFL. So at worst, The Informer gets a push here.

Lions over 8.5 wins (+110)

The Informer made this bet before looking at the Lions brutal schedule (yikes). With that said; if Calvin stays healthy, Stafford continues to improve (he is only 27 years old) and Ameer fills the Reggie Bush roll then this team will be in position to give The Informer’s family a happy Christmas.

Panthers under 8.5 wins (-110)

Same bet as last year. Until Carolina can field an offense, they are not going to win nine games.

Atlanta to make playoffs (+150)

Lions to make playoffs (+160)

Atlanta plays in the NFC South, so no explanation needed there. As for Detroit, The Informer thinks they have the talent to reach the playoffs in back to back seasons for the first time since the Barry Sanders era (last time Detroit made back to back was the 1994 and 1995 seasons).

"Cheese and rice Informer, you made 23 prop bets? Dude you really need to think about calling 1-800 Bets-off. Seriously, you have problems."

Hey Mr. condescending judgmental figment of The Informer’s imagination: Don't you remember when The Informer said these were "fake illegal wagers"? Or how The Informer said "these are just some of the bets I would make if I had an 'illegal bookie' to make them through?"

Basically, don't you remember when the top of the article advised that this was being written for entertainment purposes only?

So how about you get off your non-gambling high horse and shut the hell up while The Informer gives the people free money?

Anyways, as The Informer was saying before he was rudely interrupted, now that we have the season long prop bets out of the way it is time to get to the main event.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7)

The Informer is going to say this one time and one time only: Other than making good natured jokes at the Patriots expense, there will be no mention of Deflategate, Spygate, WaterGate, Bill Gates or anything that rhymes with the word gate in this article ever again.

Why you ask?

Because The Informer does not give two sh*ts about deflated footballs and controversies that are over 10 years old. The cold hard truth is last season the Patriots beat the Colts by seven hundred points and then went on to beat a very good Seattle HGHawks squad in the Super Bowl. There is no conspiracy, cheating scandal, steroid use or rooms full of deflated footballs that would have changed those outcomes.

End of story.

Now, getting back to the game at hand, the Steelers are playing without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant tonight while the Patriots are playing with fully inflated balls, new spyware (allegedly) and a pissed off Tom Brady.

Doesn’t that sound like advantage New England?

Plus, there is the whole "New England is going to be playing in full F-U mode like it is 2007 all over again" thingy. Combine that with the fact that the home team is 12-1 since the NFL started doing these Thursday Night games, and The Informer is thinking the 66% of the public are about to win their first bet of the season.

Pick: New England (-7)

Have a great opening night everyone. Also, just so everyone is not worried, due to some scheduling issues and other factors beyond my control, the rest of The Informer’s Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted either Saturday or Sunday morning. So keep an eye out for those as opening Sunday inches closer and closer.