The Informer's 2015 NFL Picks: Week 3

After picking 11-5 against the spread in Week 2 of the 2015 NFL Season, The Informer is once again ready to make the people money. So with John Football Clipboard hand gestures on the mind, let’s crack those Natties and get right to Week 3 of The Informer’s 2015 NFL Picks Challenge.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)

Here is the deal folks; only an absolute moron would pick Kirk Cousins on the road in Prime-time against an 0-2 Giants team that was playing for their season. So if you know someone who was actually dumb enough to bet Kirk "INT" Cousins last night, you have The Informer’s permission to kick that d-bag squarely in the gonads.

Trust me, they deserve it.

For everyone's information . .. The Informer is taking Washington +3.5 tonight and also riding the first half under #FirstHalfUnderIs6-1

— The Informer (@therealinformer) September 24, 2015

Before we wrap this game up, here is The Informer’s Week 3 stat of the day: Did you know through his first 15 NFL games the great Randy Moss had 64 receptions for 1,281 yards and 16 TDs (an NFL record for TDs through 15 games)? Did you also know through his first 15 NFL games the "ODB" Odell Beckham Jr. has 110 receptions for 1,574 yards (an NFL record for receptions & yards through 15 games) and 14 TDs?

Just saying; enjoy what you are watching in New York, because right now it is pure greatness in the making.

Pick: Skins (+3.5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ ST LOUIS RAMS (+1.5)

Speaking of greatness: Antonio Brown is on pace for 144 receptions 2,624 yards and 16 TDs. Now it would be absurd to think Brown can keep this up (164 yards a game is ridiculous), but if he is able to keep up a semi-pace – like say 120 yards a games – than he would become the first NFL receiver to reach 2,000 yards in a single season. Again, it is early in the season, but with this Pittsburgh offense, and the greatness of Brown, it is not out of the realm of possibility, right?

As for the gambling portion of this game; since the line is a tossup, The Informer has no choice but to bet against 85% of the public.

Pick: Rams (+1.5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2.5)

The last time Adrian Peterson played the San Diego Chargers at home was in 2007 and this happened . . .



So yea . . . The Informer is betting Adrian Peterson on Sunday.

Pick: Vikings (-2.5)

TAMPA BAY @ HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5)

Do we really live in a world where Ryan Mallet and the Houston Texans are favored by 6.5 points even though they are playing without Arian Foster and possibly DeAndre Hopkins (he was undergoing concussion treatment on Thursday)?

Give The Informer the points and the rookie quarterback on the road against J.J. Watt. I mean, what could possibly go wrong?

Pick: Tampa Bay (+6.5)

ATLANTA FALCONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (+2)

Gambling rule #700: If the spread is less than three and you have the chance to bet against Brandon Weeden –YOU ALWAYS BET AGAINST BRANDON WEEDEN!!!

Pick: Falcons (-2)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK JETS (-2.5)

The Informer is going to lose so much money this season betting against the New York Jets #EventuallyRyanFitzpatrickWillRealizeHeIsRyanFitzpatrick.

Pick: Eagles (+2.5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTEHRS (-4.5)

Shhhhh . . . Be very very quiet. We don’t want to let Vegas know the Panthers and Cam Newton, despite playing without wide receivers, are actually a really good team.

Pick: Panthers (-4.5)

CINNCINATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5)

There is no way on Tebow's Green Earth that the red headed gunslinger is going to make history by handing the Ravens their first 0-3 start in the history of Harbaugh, right?

Pick: Bengals (+2.5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5)

Things The Informer would rather do than have to watch this game: Excersice; eat right; stop drinking Natties; check my cholesterol; shave my you know what parts with a Rambo knife; give up Blimpies; smoke crack with Lawrence Taylor (allegedly); trade places with Andy Dufrane during that time when "The Sisters" took a liking to him; break into Edward Norton's house in the middle of the night; cross the streams; have unprotected carnal relations with Jenny Gump; take a right hook from Mike Tyson; stab my eye out with a soldering iron; drink milk from a saucer; watch every episode of Keeping Up with the Kardashians; and finally, bet against 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning in Prime-time.

In other words, this game sucks donkey balls.

Pick: Raiders (+3.5)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5)

The Informer has no idea which 49ers team is going to show up. Is it the team that played flawless "run and play defense first" football in Week 1? Or will it be the dumpster fire that got boat-raced out of Pittsburgh in Week 2?

Since we can't predict which 49ers team we are getting, The Informer has to go with the surest team in the NFL. Also, there is the whole never, even if there is a fire, bet against Bruce Arians thing.

Pick: Cardinals (-6.5)

(The Informer after the pick stat – Last week, after his first career three TD game, Larry Fitzgerald became just the 10th receiver to join the 12,000 yard 90 TD club. The "Original Predator" is now forever linked with; Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Chris Carter, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Tim Brown, Issac Bruce, Tony Gonzalez and the great Steve Largent.)

INDANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (+3)

The Informer: "Hey Andrew Luck, will you please eat a Snickers?"

Andrew Luck: "Why?"

The Informer: "Because you play like a drunk Jay Cutler when you are hungry."

Seriously, Andrew Luck has been "Jay Cutler" awful through two games this season. Don’t worry though, that trend is not going to continue. It was just a byproduct of the greatest young QB in NFL history getting to know his new teammates (Frank Gore & Andre Johnson), some horrible "Pep Hamilton System" play calling (Stop trying to be a run first pound the ball offense . . . For the love of Tebow you have freaking Andrew Luck as your quarterback . . . F***ING USE HIM!!!) and of course the fact the Colts have played two of the 10 best defenses in the NFL.

Going 0-2 under those conditions could happen to anyone. That all stops this week though as Luck rights the ship and starts the march to his fourth straight 11 win season.

Pick: Colts (-3)

CHICAGO BEARS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14.5)

What a dilemma. Should The Informer follow the "two touchdown underdog rule" or the "always bet against Jimmy Clausen on the road against a desperate 0-2 Seattle team during the same week that Cam Chancellor returns to the lineup no matter how big the spread is rule"?

This really is a hard one.

"Hey Informer, did you hear that unnamed sources have confirmed that HGH sales (allegedly) have reached an all-time high in the Seattle area this past week?"

No figment of The Informer’s imagination, I had not heard that obviously concrete fact (allegedly) about the Seattle area. Talk about a game changer. Now, are we sure it was HGH and not just over the counter non performance enhancing Adderall so Seattle could study better?

Either way, if Seattle is going to be laser-focused in their home opener than there really is only one way to bet this game.

Pick: Seattle (-14.5)

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3)

Ace Ventura, would you like to say a few words about this game?



Well said Ace.

As for the pick, The Informer is backing the home team while preparing for a push (this is going to be a last second field goal game).

Pick: Dolphins (-3)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5)

The NFL gambling rules clearly state whenever a team is getting two touchdowns, you bet the dog. You don’t ask questions, you just do it. And since The Informer already ignored this rule once, there is no choice but to back the Jags on the road against Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

"Holy f***ing s**t Informer . . . Will you please re-read that last sentence. You just said to bet Blake Bortles on the road against Tom Brady during Tom Brady's 'I am pissed at the NFL and going to win the 2015 NFL MVP Award in spite season.' Seriously, picking the Jags this week maybe the dumbest most idiotic thing you have ever done. Take it back right now before I have to threaten your life you fat-fat moron."

Listen, for the bottom of The Informer's black liver "I apologize" and take it all back. The Informer had one too many Bortles & James wine coolers and one thing led to another. I know that things were said and for that "I am sorry." It was wrong and it will never happen again. The Informer promises. And so we are all clear, there is no way in the bluest of blue hells The Informer is going to bet against Tom Brady this weekend. The above sentence was one drunken mistake. Nothing more.

Pick: Patriots (-13.5)

DENVER BRONCOS @ DETROIT LIONS (+3)

Everyone say it with me . . .

5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME . . . 5X NFL MVP IN PRIMETIME !!!

Somebody please get Simba on the phone, because The Informer just found his Lion King Lock of the Week.

Pick: LKLOTW Donkeys (-3)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)

Everyone say it with me . . .

2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME . . . 2X NFL MVP AARON RODGERS IN PRIMETIME!!!

Pick: Packers (-6.5)

Have a great Week 3 everyone. May it be filled with Blimpies, Natty Lights and enough winning parlays to buy dem apple bottom jeans and the boots with the fur.



#NFLPicks #FloRida #WinnerWinnerBlimpiesDinner

2015 NFL Season Prop Bets & Thursday Night Pick

After months of talking about deflated balls, courtroom dramas, overbearing commissioners, tainted legacies and all the other garbage that comes with the offseason; we can finally talk about actual football.

No longer will we have to spend endless nights listening to pundits explain why it is wrong for rookies to have a fall guy. No longer will we have to read 10,000 word stories about scandals from the year 2000. And best of all, no longer will we have to listen to "talking head blowhards" debate whether or not Tim Tebow is better than RG3-13.

Nope. All of the garbage is done. For the next five months the only thing that matters is the actual football being played on Sunday.

Whether it is Andrew Luck making the MVP leap; Peyton Manning proving he is still the 5x NFL MVP; Adrian Peterson canceling Christmas; Ryan "RT1" Tannehill becoming elite; Calvin Johnson regaining his spot as the best WR in the game; Jay Cutler causing a five month long depression in the Windy City; J.J. Watt; Rex Ryan trying to end the Buffalo Bills' playoff drought; Khalil Mack trying to bring respect to Oakland; Mariota vs. Winston; Tom Brady vs. the World; Odell Beckham Jr. defying the laws of NFL gravity; or Alex Smith trying to game manage his team to a Super Bowl; it is finally time to stop the speculating and start watching the storylines play out on the field.

Oh yea . . . And did The Informer mention the sweet-sweet return of the parlay, the teaser, the prop bet, the first half under, Peyton Manning in prime-time, home underdogs, long odds, short odds, money lines, points spreads, hedging, miracle covers and betting against Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and whomever is starting for the Cleveland Browns?

Speaking of gambling; since the NFL season is kicking off in less then 12 hours, for today’s article The Informer thought we would break down all of the "fake" prop bets he made for this season, before picking tonight’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots.

So with that in mind, let’s stop all the jibber-jabber and start the gambling.

(The Informer note – As always, please keep in mind that these are all hypothetical wagers that should not be taken seriously unless you live in the great state of Las Vegas where gambling is legal. Furthermore; it needs to be noted that The Informer in no way condones, or advises, anyone to sign up for an illegal offshore Caribbean gambling website like RealBet, SportsBook, USABets, TopBet, Bovada, or take part in any other activity where a person could make illegal wagers. Doing so is not only illegal, but it is considered a mortal sin in most of the world’s religions. So again, what you are about to read is for entertainment purposes only. Thank you and enjoy.)
 
2015 NFL SEASON PROP BETS

Andrew Luck over 34 TD passes

This is actually The Informer’s Lion King Lock of the Year. In other words, "Lock and load Ramathorn."

Drew Brees over 4,600 passing yards

Drew Brees has passed for over 4,600 yards five straight years and six of the last seven. In the world of gambling that is what we like to call a trend. And no, losing a tight end who had less than 1,000 yards receiving last season does not scare The Informer one bit.

Adrian Peterson over 1,250 yards rushing

Do you all remember the last time people told Adrian Peterson he would not be the same? Yea . . . So does The Informer.

A.J. Green over 1,200 yards receiving yards

The Informer likes this bet because A.J. "The Sickness" Green is about to become just the second guy in the history of the NFL to finish with at least 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first five seasons; which makes this a decent prop bet.

For those wondering, the great Randy Moss is currently the only guy to ever accomplish this feat.

Calvin Johnson over 10 TD catches

"The Shredder" is going to regain his title as the best in the business by racking up touchdowns at an alarming rate.

Julio Jones over 1,300 yards

The Informer made this fake bet before Julio Jones signed his new contract under the assumption that Jones was about to have a great "contract season". With that said; only 1,300 yards for Julio seems like a steal of a bet.

Dez Bryant over 11.5 TD catches

Did you know that there is not a single player in the NFL who can say they have caught more touchdowns (56) than Dez Bryant since the former Oklahoma State WR entered the NFL in 2010?

Ryan Tannehill over 4,000 yards passing

Ryan Tannehill is going to have a monster season so you might as well win money watching him do it.

Derek Carr over 21 TD passes

Derek Carr had 21 TD passes as a rookie even though he played the entire season without one single receiver who would actually be considered an NFL caliber player. So thinking he will have at least that many as a second year player after the Raiders added Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper is not that much of a stretch.

Ameer Abdullah to win ROY (+1300)

Marcus Mariota to win ROY (+600)

The Informer likes both of these guys a lot. And with long odds, these are lottery tickets that could pay well in the end.

Tampa Bay wins the NFC South (+555)

The Informer was drunk when he made this bet.

Arizona (+500), San Francisco (+1100) and Rams (+750) to win NFC West

The thinking here is that the Super Bowl hangover curse is a real thing and that Seattle, after four straight years of winning, is due for an "everything goes wrong" type of season. So if everything does go wrong in Seattle this season, that means The Informer wins money. And if it doesn’t then The Informer will have another excuse to hate the HGHawks.

Texans under 8.5 wins (+110)
 
Ask anyone in the National media and they will tell you that J.J. Watt had the greatest season in the history of football last year. And you know what? The Texans still barely won nine games. So the thinking here is that Houston will be worse thanks to the facts that they lost Andre Johnson (a future Hall of Famer), they have an injured Arian Foster, they don’t have an NFL caliber starting QB and Watt – who again had the greatest season in the 96 year NFL history a year ago – is due to come back down to Earth at least a little. Add that all up, and it feels like they could be a half game worse than a season ago.

Denver over 10.5 wins (+110)

All Peyton Manning does is win 11 football games and the AFC West every year.

Skins under 6.5 wins (-110)

Is the Friday before Week 1 to early to mark this bet as a "W"?

Colts over 11 wins (-110)

Andrew Luck has won at least 11 games every year he has played in the NFL. So at worst, The Informer gets a push here.

Lions over 8.5 wins (+110)

The Informer made this bet before looking at the Lions brutal schedule (yikes). With that said; if Calvin stays healthy, Stafford continues to improve (he is only 27 years old) and Ameer fills the Reggie Bush roll then this team will be in position to give The Informer’s family a happy Christmas.

Panthers under 8.5 wins (-110)

Same bet as last year. Until Carolina can field an offense, they are not going to win nine games.

Atlanta to make playoffs (+150)

Lions to make playoffs (+160)

Atlanta plays in the NFC South, so no explanation needed there. As for Detroit, The Informer thinks they have the talent to reach the playoffs in back to back seasons for the first time since the Barry Sanders era (last time Detroit made back to back was the 1994 and 1995 seasons).

"Cheese and rice Informer, you made 23 prop bets? Dude you really need to think about calling 1-800 Bets-off. Seriously, you have problems."

Hey Mr. condescending judgmental figment of The Informer’s imagination: Don't you remember when The Informer said these were "fake illegal wagers"? Or how The Informer said "these are just some of the bets I would make if I had an 'illegal bookie' to make them through?"

Basically, don't you remember when the top of the article advised that this was being written for entertainment purposes only?

So how about you get off your non-gambling high horse and shut the hell up while The Informer gives the people free money?

Anyways, as The Informer was saying before he was rudely interrupted, now that we have the season long prop bets out of the way it is time to get to the main event.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7)

The Informer is going to say this one time and one time only: Other than making good natured jokes at the Patriots expense, there will be no mention of Deflategate, Spygate, WaterGate, Bill Gates or anything that rhymes with the word gate in this article ever again.

Why you ask?

Because The Informer does not give two sh*ts about deflated footballs and controversies that are over 10 years old. The cold hard truth is last season the Patriots beat the Colts by seven hundred points and then went on to beat a very good Seattle HGHawks squad in the Super Bowl. There is no conspiracy, cheating scandal, steroid use or rooms full of deflated footballs that would have changed those outcomes.

End of story.

Now, getting back to the game at hand, the Steelers are playing without Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant tonight while the Patriots are playing with fully inflated balls, new spyware (allegedly) and a pissed off Tom Brady.

Doesn’t that sound like advantage New England?

Plus, there is the whole "New England is going to be playing in full F-U mode like it is 2007 all over again" thingy. Combine that with the fact that the home team is 12-1 since the NFL started doing these Thursday Night games, and The Informer is thinking the 66% of the public are about to win their first bet of the season.

Pick: New England (-7)

Have a great opening night everyone. Also, just so everyone is not worried, due to some scheduling issues and other factors beyond my control, the rest of The Informer’s Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted either Saturday or Sunday morning. So keep an eye out for those as opening Sunday inches closer and closer.