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Ladies and gentlemen welcome to Week 2 of The Informer’s 2015 NFL Picks Challenge. After one week of gambling, The Informer is off to a solid 9-6-1 (56%) record against the spread. Obviously, The Informer is thrilled with his 9-6-1 start, but there were still mistakes that could have been avoided (like betting Jacksonville at home) that would have made Week 1 even more lucrative. Never fear though, The Informer promises he has learned from said mistakes and rest assured they will never happen again.
Now before we begin today, The Informer needs to point out that last week Vegas took it on the chin when it came to NFL betting. The Informer does not remember the exact number (I am way to lazy to look it up), but thanks to public favorites like Green Bay and Miami covering, the people in Vegas were not able to build a new Casino.
The Informer is pointing this out to remind everyone that Vegas does not enjoy when they are unable to build new Casinos. They hate it even more when the reason they can't build said new Casino is because they had to give random people tons of money.
So because last week Vegas took such a beating, The Informer wants to warn the public bettor to be prepared for a topsy-turvy Week 2 where unexpected stuff happens (FYI – 70% of the public betting K.C. last night knows exactly what The Informer is talking about).
On that note, let’s crack open the Natties and make some money.
DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3)
(The Informer note – Here is what I wrote Thursday morning before kickoff between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.)
"Hey Informer, it is time to give up the charade. Your boy Peyton ‘noodle arm’ Manning is officially done. Please don’t try and defend him either. We all watched it last Sunday against the Ravens. The dude can no longer play football. Admit it, he is D.O.N.E . . . DONE!!!"
Guys, I am not going to lie to you –last week was ugly. Manning looked lost, confused, bewildered, bald, downtrodden, constipated at times, upset and ancy in his pancy. However you want to describe it, the fact is the greatest regular season quarterback ever played like a flaming bag of dumpster fire shit.
But here is the thing; even though Manning played poorly, The Informer will never say he is done. You can call me stupid, naïve, or a dreamer; but The Informer refuses to live in a world where the 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning is no longer the 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning.
So until they pull Peyton Manning’s lifeless football corpse from my dead cold fingers, The Informer is going to keep riding the Manning ship even if it is heading to the bottom of the Ocean. And that ride continues Thursday night with The Informer making Peyton Manning -- who is getting points in prime-time against a team he has beaten eight straight games -- the Lion King Lock of the Week.
The 5X NFL MVP is not done folks.
Pick: LKLOTW Donkeys (+3)
(The Informer note – Here is what I wrote after watching the Broncos insane 31-24 come-from behind victory over the Chiefs.)
Okay The Informer really has to ask: What in the hell is Gary Kubiak doing? Why is he hell bent on making the 5X NFL MVP a roll out of the pocket and throw on the run quarterback? Seriously, has Kubiak watched football for the past three years? Peyton Manning does not win football games by huddling after every single play while the defense catches their breath. Peyton Manning wins football games by upping the tempo, slinging laser rocket ducks from the shotgun and keeping the defense on their toes by applying constant pressure with audibles and play calls from the line of scrimmage.
Bascially, Manning has won the past three years by playing quarterback chess while the opposing defenses are stuck playing par-cheesy.
So what does Coach Kubiak ? He tries to turn "Mr. 7000" into a regular quarterback by making him huddle after every play (which also allows the defense a chance to huddle) and by making a 39-year old man, who has had four neck surgeries, throw ridiculous bootleg passes.
Folks, please re-read that last sentence. The Broncos new genius coach is making Peyton Manning do naked bootlegs. Again, we are talking about Peyton Manning, a guy who can barely walk, let alone run naked bootleg passes that force him to make throws on the run.
It does not make any f****** sense.
And please don’t start in with the "well, Manning does not have it anymore" bullshit. For those making that argument here is my question: Did you see what happened when the Broncos went no huddle for the first time last night and let Manning call the plays at the line? They scored. Then, did you see what happened when Manning needed to drive 80-yards in one minute to tie the game? Manning went 80-yards and tied the damn game.
Listen, the point of all of this is simple: If you let Manning be Manning, the greatest regular season quarterback in the history of football is going to be great. We have seen it for the last three years and we saw it again last night.
Now someone just needs to explain to Gary Kubiak that when you have a quarterback named Peyton Manning you run whatever f****** system Peyton Manning wants to run. You don’t try to turn him into a shittier version of Matt Schaub.
Okay, now that we got the Gary Kubiak "three and out system" covered, here are five more thoughts from Thursday Night’s miracle Denver win.
5. Chiefs rookie cornerback Marcus Peters is going to be an All-Pro sooner rather than later.
4. Thanks to Justin Houston, DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller; The Informer can say for the first time ever that he really enjoyed watching defenses play football. Those three dudes are a sight to be seen when rushing the passer.
3. C.J. Anderson is the reason The Informer would rather pick one of the stud quarterbacks (like Aaron Rodgers) when it comes to the back end of the first round of fantasy drafts.
2. The Informer knows we already covered this, but what kind of a coach builds an offense that does not focus on getting the ball into Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas’ hands?
1. If both the Broncos and Chiefs are not in the playoffs come January, The Informer will be absolutely shocked.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3)
Gambling rules clearly state that you never, not even if there was a fire, bet Ryan Mallet on the road.
Pick: Panthers (-3)
TENNESSEE TITANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1)
Did you know Jim Brown and Earl Campbell are the only players who have won the NFL MVP during their rookie seasons? The Informer is just throwing that out there. There is no reason at all. I just wanted to make sure everyone knew that impressive little tidbit about NFL history. Again, it is pure coincidence The Informer put it here in the Titans sections.
Anyways, which means please do not interrupt while The Informer is fitting Marcus Mariota for his Gold Jacket, when it comes to gambling on this game, The Informer feels like we have to point out the fact that this line started at Cleveland (-2) and has since moved all the way to Tennessee (-1).
For those who do not know, this type of line movement means every single bet being placed is on a rookie quarterback playing on the road for the first time. In other words, "RED FLAGS!!!". So please beware and gamble with caution on this game.
Now with all of the "red flags" in consideration, The Informer will be putting Mariota in every one of his Super Picks Contests, SurvivorPolls, Three-Team Teasers, Straight Wagers and Parlays #MariotaForPresident #IfinallyHaveAnExcuseToWearMyMossTitansJersey #FreeCollegeForEveryone.
Pick: Titans (-1)
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CHICAGO BEARS (+1.5)
Did you all see Cardinals running back David Johnson’s first NFL TD?
Doesn't that look exactly like Adrian Peterson's first NFL TD?
#SkyIsTheLimit
As far as gambling on this game goes, The Informer is never going to bet against Bruce Arians again. It is not a smart financial decision. Also, since The Informer’s Lion King Lock of the Week was played before this article was published (The Informer did tweet out the Broncos pick), we are going to go ahead and make Carson Palmer and new Adrian Peterson the second Lion King Lock of the Week.
Pick: LKLOTW Cardinals (-1.5)
Here is proof of said tweet . . .
Im taking the Broncos +3.5tonight under the well known rule that you never bet against 5X NFL MVP Peyton Manning in Prime-Time #FreeMoney
— The Informer (@therealinformer) September 17, 2015
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINNCINATTI BENGALS (-3)Normally, The Informer would be all over the West Coast team flying to the East Coast for a noon game, but in this case that rule does not really apply because the Bengals spent last weekend on the West Coast; which means they are also technically flying West-to-East for this game.
So really this game comes down to who The Informer wants to root for. In this case, The Informer is going to root for "The Sickness" A.J. Green so he is going to be betting on "The Sickness" A.J. Green.
Also, Andy Dalton has won his last three home openers by an average of 10 points so that has to count for something.
Pick: Bengals (-3)
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3)
The Informer has one question about each of these two teams.
Lions: How in the hell does Calvin Johnson only have three passes thrown his direction?
Vikings: How in the hell does Adrian Peterson only get 10 carries in a game?
The team who decides to fix their above question this week is the team that will win this game.
Pick: Vikings (-3)
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS (-10)
Here is The Informer’s brilliant rational for betting Tampa on the road: In Week 5 of the 2014 NFL Season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went into the Super Dome as a double digit underdog and only lost by six points so we know they can cover a double digit spread.
Pretty sound reasoning, right (shaking head no).
In case you are not convinced, here is an actual logical reason to back Famous Jameis on the road:
86% of the public is betting the Saints. (Remember the whole Vegas and Casinos thingy?)
Pick: Tampa Bay (+10)
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+6)
Remember last week when The Informer made the mistake of betting the Jacksonville Jaguars at home? Yea . . . That will never happen again.
Pick: Jaguars (+6)
ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5)
The Atlanta Falcons are going to win this game outright. Don’t be fooled by the close game last Sunday night, the New York Giants are terrible and will not be able to stop the high flying Atlanta offense.
Look for Julio Jones to continue his domination of the NFL with another 100-yard game while leading the Falcons to a double digit victory.
Pick: Falcons (+2.5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+5.5)
The Informer has a little secret for anyone who did not stay up for the Monday Nightcap in Week 1: The San Francisco 49ers are going to be a tough team to play this season. They still have that hardcore run first offense (Carolos Hyde is a stud in the making), and even better, thanks to the return of Navarro Bowman, they still have their physical defense.
The Informer knows overreacting to the first week can be a slippery slope, but if Week 1 is any indication that means San Fran is going to be playing meaningful football late into the 2015 season.
Pick: 49ers (+5.5)
ST LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3.5)
Kevin McCallister, can you please explain to the world how The Informer feels about this game?
Pick: Rams (-3.5)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS (+1)
The Informer can’t in good conscious pick Tyrod "The Cannon" Taylor over Tom Brady. Not when Brady is playing in "Show Goodell how my a** taste" mode.
Pick: Patriots (-1)
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS (+5.5)
If you are a person who would lay a bet on the Raiders in a game where Matt McGloin could be prominently involved, then you really need to call 1-800-BETSOFF.
Pick: Ravens (-5.5)
DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5.5)
The Informer is going to jump on the points and hope "Mr Clutch" Tony Romo shows up again on Sunday.
Pick: Cowboys (+5.5)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5)
Can the defending NFC Champions really start the season 0-2? Will Aaron Rodgers finally beat Russell Wilson (he is 0-3 including playoffs)? Can the Packers erase the memory of the "Fail Mary", the "Opening Day Massacre", and the NFC Championship Game? Is Cam Chancelor really going to hold out for the next three seasons? Is James Jones Batman? Is Marcus Mariota going to be elected President? Is Marshawn Lynch’s mom going to be live tweeting this game with her feelings on the play calling? Speaking of play calling: How come the Seattle Seahawks can’t convert on fourth and one? I am the only one who is really excited for this game?
Ask you can see, The Informer has a lot of questions heading into Sunday night.
Pick: Packers (-3.5)
NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7)
For everyone who is currently jumping off of the Colts 2015 bandwagon please keep this in mind: During Week 1 of the 2014 NFL Season the New England Patriots lost on the road 33-20 and yet they were still able to overcome the defeat to win the Super Bowl. Furthermore, in 2014 the Colts started the season 0-2, before rebounding to make a run to the AFC Title game.
So please, before you injure yourself jumping, remember that it is a long season and the Colts still have Andrew Luck.
In other words, they will be fine.
As for this game; under no circumstances will The Informer ever bet Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against Andrew Luck in Prime-time. It does not matter how poor the Colts looked in Week 1, or how good the Jets played, there is nothing on the face of Tebow’s Green Earth that will ever make me call my fake bookie and say the words, "Give me the Harvard man".
Pick: Colts (-7)
Have a great Week 2. May it be filled with winning bets, lots of Natties and all the Blimpies you can handle. Now D.J. please hit The Informer's Week 2 music . . .
#BetItWhileTheBettinIsGood #TooShort #WinnerWinnerBlimpiesDinner
