Showing posts with label NFL Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Fantasy Football. Show all posts

Monday, June 8, 2020

The Informer's 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Preview: Draft #1



For those clicking on an Informer blog for the first time please allow me to introduce myself: My name is The Informer and I am a self-glossed fantasy football expert. My credentials for this "self-glossing" are as follows: I play fantasy football and I once started Ryan Leaf in a week where he completed 1 of 15 passes for 4 yards.

Anyways, which means please don't interrupt the expert while I am blogging, the reason we are here is to try and help you the reader draft the perfect fantasy football team for the upcoming 2020 NFL Season.

Now, in order to accomplish this goal, The Informer is taking it upon himself to draft an un-Tebowly amount of fantasy teams (trying to join 50 "real money" leagues this year) and then I will share my experience and insights from each draft. The thinking is you will learn from The Informer's success, failures, mistakes and triumphs; so when it is time for your draft you will be able to devise the perfect strategy needed to dominate.

Ok, now that we have the "who's and the what's" figured out, the last thing I want to mention before we start is that I am breaking down my team from a "$12 real money league" 10-team auction draft on Yahoo dot com (Yahoo has the best paid fantasy leagues on the internet).

I am pointing out that this is a "$12 real money league" in order to show everyone reading that this was not a fake "mock draft" where two people took it seriously; seven people auto drafted; and one guy spent $174 on the Denver Broncos defense because his third cousin's brother's friend Tami once saw John Elway with his shirt off.

No, this team was drafted into a league with real stakes up for grabs (stakes as in prize money, not the stuff you dip into ketchup) which means The Informer really needs to win so I can pay my bills is fully invested in said team's success.

And on that note, here is Team 1 of The Informer's 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Preview.  

STARTING LINEUP (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K & 1 Def)

QB - Matt Ryan ($2)

There is nothing sexy about drafting year 12 of the Matty Ice experience, but for $2 I was able to draft a QB with nine straight 4,000 yard passing seasons who also throws the ball to Julio Jones. Considering I spent all my other draft money on four players, being able to pick up the consistency of the Falcons leader was huge.

RB - Saquon Barkley ($70)

My goal entering every 2020 auction draft is to buy two of the Barkley-Run CMC-Zeke trio. In this draft I was able to snag Barkley, but in the end The Informer got gun shy and did not pull the trigger on CMC ($74) or Zeke ($71) to form the dynamic duo.

Will this lack of guts cost The Informer money in this league? I don't think so, but we will see. Will this lack of guts  haunt The Informer's dreams for the next eight months? Absolutely.

WR - Julio Jones ($44)

WR - AJ Green ($20)

Many fantasy pundits will say that I underpaid for Julio (no reason he is not going for $50), but that I in turn overpaid for AJ (should be in the $10-$15 range). The Informer would say that is why they are pundits and not experts. Because in The Informer's "expert" opinion; I definitely under paid for Julio, but I got a steal with AJ.

The scientific facts to my AJ case are simple: Once the pre-season starts and everyone sees a healthy Green doing what a healthy Green does (making defensive backs his beeotch) his price is going to go up into the mid 30s.

So getting him for $20 is an expert win for The Informer.

Flex - Derrick Henry ($59)

Flex - Damian Williams ($2)

I think the Tennessee Titans are going to give Derrick Henry 400 carries this year. I also think that if the Tennessee Titans give Derrick Henry 400 carries this year, that will mean Derrick Henry is going to rush for 2,000 yards. And if Derrick Henry runs for 2,000 yards he will be worth every penny of his $59 price tag.

As for Damian Williams; I know the Chiefs drafted a running back in the first round, but my feeling is that the Chiefs and their veteran offense are still going to ride Williams while they integrate the new rookie into their lineup. So for me, I would rather spend $2 on Williams than the $40 that was spent on Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

With that said, The Informer does reserve the right to change my mind once we actually get to watch football and see if the Edwards-Helaire hype is real or media made up. Until that time though, The Informer will not be spending Josh Jacobs type money on an unknown when I can have the "almost won a Super Bowl MVP" running back who plays on the same high octane offense.

TE - Noah Fant ($1)

I drafted Fant and TJ Hockenson because I think both guys are going to be second year studs this season. And, well, if The Informer is correct on even one of these guys --then I just got myself a Top 10 player at his position for a buck. How many other guys/positions (kickers and defense obviously not counted) will you be able to say that about in 2020?

Kicker - A guy for $1

Defense - A defense for $1

My life philosophy has always been you only spend $2 total for your defense and kicker. With that said; if you want to spend a few bucks on Justin Tucker (the only kicker you are allowed to spend more than $1 on), or say the 49ers defense, I am not going to be upset with you. I would just say use caution and don't forsake drafting someone like DK Metcalf because you want to save money for the Arizona defense. 

THE RESERVES 

BN - Julian Edelman ($4)

BN - Darius Slayton ($1)

BN - James White ($1)

BN - Henry Ruggs III ($1)

BN - Sammy Watkins ($1)

BN - Tee Higgins ($1)

BN - TJ Hockenson

Julian Edelman is a risk without Tom Brady, but for $4 I think he is a low risk with potential for high reward. Darius Slayton was tied for ninth in the NFL in TD catches last season, so he is a good $1 buy low guy. I picked up James White hoping he has a bigger role now that Tom Brady is gone. Ruggs & Higgins are my rookie lottery tickets. Hockenson I already expressed how I feel about. And finally, I drafted Sammy Watkins because he has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

THE INFORMER'S FINAL DRAFT THOUGHTS


Biggest Reach/Mistake (Hashtag: Did somebody say steak?)

This is the dreaded "I got caught up in a bidding war and over spent on a guy" award. In this draft, I would say the dude who spent $40 on Edwards-Helaire made the biggest mistake. But I would also argue The Informer made the biggest reach by ponying up $59 for Derrick Henry. Now, I am not saying Henry was a bad buy, I am just saying that Henry will probably go for $48-$52 in most drafts; so going that far over "Henry budget" has to be considered a reach.


The Informer's "I got me eye on you" Best Future Values

I know that every draft is different, so values will change from draft to draft, but judging on these results alone here are my favorite value guys (guys with cheap/good price tags) that I will be keeping my eye on going forward: Nick Chubb ($49), Josh Jacobs ($36), Melvin Gordon ($15), Cooper Kupp ($14), Zach Ertz ($11), Devin Singletary ($12), Tyler Lockett ($9), Amari Cooper ($10 WHAT?!!!), Kyler Murray ($6 gonna be a huge year), Courtland Sutton ($8), DK Metcalf ($5) and Marquise Brown ($4).

Best Team The Informer Could Have Had If "if's and buts was candies and nuts"

Based on the amount of money spent on every player, here is the best possible team I think The Informer could have drafted if everything had gone perfectly (We had a $210 Budget to fill the roster):

QB - Lamar Jackson ($28)

RB - Zeke ($71)

WR - DK Metcalf ($5)

WR - Amari Cooper ($10)

Flex - Barkley ($70)

Flex  - Devin Singletary ($12)

TE - Noah Fant ($1 seriously gonna be great this year)

K - One Dollar

D - One Dollar

BN- CeDee Lamb ($1)

BN - Austin Hooper ($1)

BN -Ronald Jones ($1)

BN - Damian Williams ($2)

BN - Phillip Lindsay ($1)

BN - Darius Slayton ($1)

BN - Baltimore's "Hollywood" Brown ($4)

Now, while I really liked the way "The Informer Team #1" turned out, any logical fantasy expert can look at the above "hypothetical team" and see there is room to improve. Which means, it is time for The Informer to stop blogging and get back to drafting.

Peace and hair grease y'all. The Informer will be back with Team #2 soon.

Hashtag: "Draft well & Prosper."



Sunday, August 25, 2019

The Informer's 2019 NFL Fantasy Football Preview: Part 4



One of the main questions I get asked by people seeking fantasy football advice is: Who should I pick with the “insert pick” in my draft?

Needless to say; there are a ton of different variables that go into answering this question, so giving a specific "take this guy here" is pretty difficult (for example let’s say the guy hates the Cowboys and refuses to draft Zeke, that changes how I would answer if the guy had a Top 4 pick).

But, just because it is difficult, doesn't mean there is not an answer. That is why today, in my quest to answer the "who should I draft here" question, I have put all of the 2019 NFL fantasy football players I love into different "Tier Groups" for each round of a standard fantasy football snake draft. 

This way -- when the inevitable happens -- and the guy who you were going to pick at 47 gets snaked, instead of frantically searching through player rankings while the clock ticks down, you will be able to refer back to the tier groupings and find a suitable 47th pick replacement.

At least that is the plan for this blog. We will see how it turns out. 

Anyways, now that we are all on the same "tier" page, here is part four of The Informer’s 2019 Fantasy Football Preview.

Picks 1-5: Saquon Barkley, Run CMC, Zeke Elliot, Alvin Kamara and David Johnson

In any and all 2019 fantasy football drafts these are the only five guys I am drafting if I have a Top 5 pick. And I will be drafting them in this exact order. 

(Informer note — I am obviously drafting under the impression that Zeke Elliot will not be holding out any games this season. I get that his situation could make him a non draftable player for some, but I am going to continue thinking positive thoughts and assume he will be back soon.)

Picks 6-10: LeVeon Bell, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Tyreke Hill, Michael Thomas, Nick Chubb

On Yahoo, Tyreke Hill is usually going in the late second or early third round. So some will say he does not belong in The Informer's Top 10. To those people I would say you are morons. Tyreke Hill will finish as a Top 5 WR this season and thus he totally needs to be considered at the end of the first round, and at the very least the beginning of round two (Hill is going Top 15 on ESPN so at least they agree with The Informer).

As for the other guys; I don’t think you can go wrong picking any of them in the six to 10 range. So whomever you prefer, or whoever falls to you, snatch them up.

Picks 11-20: Tyreke Hill (seriously draft him), DeVante Adams, Odell Beckham, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith Schuster, Mike Evans, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Todd Gurley

Todd Gurley scares me the most out of this group, but if I have the last pick in the second round and he is the only one of these 20 players left I’m gonna take him. Besides, pairing Gurley and Saquon (assuming you take Saquon 1st like I do)  in a fantasy backfield is not the worst thing to ever happen.

The rest of this tier is pretty much the same as my back half of round one tier. Namely, they are all studs so it doesn’t matter who you take or where. Just don’t do something dumb and reach for Patrick Mahomes in Round 2 and you should be fine.

21-30: Leonard Fournette, Zack Ertz, George Kittle, Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Josh Jacobs, Patrick Mahomes, DeVante Freeman, Damian Williams, Derrick Henry

This goes without saying, but if any of the Top 20 guys falls into the 21-30 range you should be taking them as fast as you can. Also, once you get to the third round, I no longer have a problem drafting Mahomes. So if you are targeting the “rocket armed man” pick 21 is the earliest I would think to draft him in standard leagues. 

31-40: Melvin Gordon, Julian Edelman, Keenan Allen, Adam Thailand, Kerryon Johnson, TY Hilton, Brandon Cooks, Stefon Diggs, DeShaun Watson, Marlon Mack, Robert Woods

I will not be drafting Melvin Gordon to any of my teams going forward. I have too many bad “post traumatic LeVeon Bell flashbacks” to entertain the idea of adding Gordon this year. But if you are wanting to take a chance, the 31-40 range is when it would be acceptable to go fishing. Me personally -- if no one from the other tiers fall -- I am looking at “Kerryon my wayward Johnson”, “Mr. 1k” Brandon Cooks or Tom Brady’s best friend in this range.

41-50: David Montgomery (Bears rookie RB), Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, Cooper Kupp, AJ Green, Sony Michel, Mike Williams, Chris Carson, Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Linsey

I really like this group and will be hoping at lest one of these guys drops to the 51-60 range so I can get two guys from this tier. In a perfect world I would love to get Michel or David Montgomery here, then turn around and get AJ Green (should be back by Week 4 at the latest) with my next pick.

51-60: Chris Goodwin, Damian Williams, Evan Ingram, Alshon Jeffery, Kenny Golloday, OJ Howard, Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan, Tyler Lockett, James White or Jarvis Landry.

Again I am assuming someone from the tier above will drop, but if not a person can't go wrong with Chris Goodwin (rising fast and probably needs to be moved up a tier), James White, Jarvis Landry or Baker's Mayfield. 

61-70: Miles Sanders, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Darrius Guice, Tyler Boyd, Sammy Watkins, Tarik Cohen, Austin Ekler


What starting position do you still need to fill? Figure that out and then draft the best player (or guy you love the most at that position) with this pick. Or draft Darrius Guice because I think he is going to be awesome.

71-80: Russell Wilson,  Kyler Murray Cam Newton, Tevin Coleman, Robby Anderson, The Joker, Josh Gordon, Larry Fitzgerald, Will Fuller, Dede Westbrook, Courtland Sutton, Duke Johnson, Christian Kirk

Honestly, if you are not taking a QB here, or "The Joker", you should be taking the highest ranked player available. This is not the time to start jumping down your draft board to grab sleepers, or reach for a lesser tight end to fill need. Now is the time to build strength. So, when the other people in your league make the mistake of reaching, you stick to the basics and I promise your team will be better for it. 

81-90: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Vance McDonald (TE), Marvin Jones, Dak, Big Ben, Jared Goff, Rashaad Penny, Curtis Samuel, James Washington, Darwin Thompson, Mecole Hardman. 

Same as above. Keep taking best player available, or fill out your QB spot if you have been waiting. 

91-Til the end

At this point in the draft it is time to start taking fliers on rookies, or your favorite sleepers  (Darwin Thompson, Mecole Hardman are mine), or anyone from the above 90 players that have slipped in the draft. 

With that said, since we are here to put players into tiers, I went ahead and tiered by position my favorite late rounds picks. 

QB: Phillip Rivers, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, James Winston, Sam Darnold.

RB: Darwin Thompson, Jaylen Samuels, Dion Lewis, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Darrell Henderson, Malcom Brown, Justin Jackson, Devin Singletary Kareem Hunt, Neyheim Hines and Adrian Peterson.

WR: Michael Gallup, N’Keal Harry, Mohmmad Sanu, Albert Wilson, Cole Beasley, Paris Campbell, Jalen Hurd, Preston Williams, Jakobi Myers, Rashard Higgins, Deebo Samuel.

TE: Austin Hooper, Greg Olson, Kyle Rudolph, Jim Graham, Jack Doyle, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Dallas Goedert, Chris Herndon (Herndon is a Top 5-8 TE from last year who is a great draft and stash until he returns from suspension in Week 5).

And with that, we are done with Part 4. In case you missed them, here is Part 1, Part Deux and Part 3. Hopefully everyone reading will be able to use these blogs to win tons of fantasy football glory (and more importantly money) this season.

Good luck with all your drafts. I hope you win. 

Now if you will excuse me, The Informer has three drafts and 12 cans of Natty Light that need attending to. 



(The Informer after the blog note -- Before we go I just wanted to say it really sucks that we are no longer going to get to watch Andrew Luck play football. He has been one of my favorite players over the last seven years and I am going to miss the heck out of watching him play. So thank you Andrew for all the great memories. It was a pleasure watching you play football. Also, for those wondering, here is my full on Twitter meltdown upon hearing the news. I thought I handled myself pretty well considering the circumstances)