Last week The Informer was challenged to a picks battle by a 9 year old wonderkid named A.C. In this challenge, the rules are very simple: Each week A.C. is going to put his picks up against The Informer's and we are going to have a mano y kido picks challenge with the winner after 17 Weeks getting all the bragging rights (and if I lose I pledge to send AC a Gem Mint 10 Rookie Card of his favorite player).
Now looking back at last week, young AC got off to a hot start going 12-3-1 straight and up 9-7 against the spread while The Informer went 11-5 against the spread (I forgot to pick the straight up games).
So as you can probably guess, young AC had some bragging to do after his very stellar Week 1 outing (you will see said bragging in the video below), but I promise you all The Informer is not worried. As I have always said, anyone can have one good week, but when it comes to NFL picks this is a marathon not a sprint. And the most important thing a handicapper needs to understand is putting together multiple weeks of wins is all that matters (that's how you make the money and get the bragging rights).
So with all that said, here are me and AC's picks for the Week 2. If you would like to read an explanation for The Informer's picks, click this link that his highlighted in blue. If you are wanting an explanation for AC's picks watch (and subscribe) his YouTube video below (I keep saying it but the kid has some charisma).
As always, have a great weekend y'all. And good luck AC. Let's see if you can do it again.
The Informer's Picks Straight Up: Panthers (L), Lions, Green Bay, Baltimore, Dallas, Bills, Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Patriots, Titans, Chiefs, Rams, Donkeys, Eagles and Browns.
Welcome ladies and gentlemen to Season 12 of The Informer’s NFL Picks blog. For those of you that are new here, my name is The Informer and I will be your host for the duration of the 2019 NFL Season.
Now, before we get to the Week 1 picks, I would like to share a few reasons as to why it would be beneficial to your well being for you to read this blog each and every week.
Here goes:
Nine of the past 11 seasons I have finished over 50% against the spread.
In 2018, The Informer’s picks handed out 10 winning weeks, three break even weeks and only four losing weeks.
Also in 2018, The Informer finished with an overall record of 136-113-7 against the spread. This means if you would have bet $100 on every game I picked you would have finished up $2,230 on the season
Lastly, I spend way too much time and energy watching football and writing this blog; so if you all read it every week it will make me feel like I am special. And we all know in 2019 that making someone feel special is the wokest thing a person can do.
Ok, now that we got the "why" out of the way, here are The Informer’s 11 commandments for 2019 NFL gambling.
(Remember These are steadfast rules that should never be broken unless you have a really strong gut feeling that the rule should be broken.)
Double digit underdogs like to cover.
If 80% of the bets are going one way, you need to zag the other way (there is a reason Vegas keeps building Casino’s and it’s not because the obvious bet keeps hitting)
Don’t bet against Tom Brady unless he is playing in Miami. You hate winning bets. You think he is going to have one of his “bad” regular season games where the media starts the “he is to old” storyline. Or you like to throw away money.
Be scared of home underdogs (unless said home dog is the Miami Dolphins).
Don’t ever, not even if there is a fire, bet against Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady in Primetime.
When in doubt bet the team with the better QB.
Always take the points when two bad teams are playing.
Seriously, the Miami Dolphins are gonna suck.
The 1st half under in Primetime.
No such thing as a stay away. Gotta bet everything and anything. The more bets you make the more chances you have to win all the money.
And finally, Week 1 is an absolute crapshoot where anything and anything can and will happen. So be prepared for wild outcomes you did not see coming (because they are going to happen).
And on that note, here are Week 1 of The Informer’s 2019 NFL Picks. As always please remember to gamble with reckless abandon and absolutely zero regard for human life.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3)
The Informer’s proof of pick Thursday Night Football tweet:
I want everyone to know, if the Browns are awesome this year they will become my fourth favorite team behind AJ Green, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Of course, if they pull a Browns and are still the Cleveland Browns, you can go ahead and disregard this entire section.
Pick: Titans (+5.5)
Baltimore Ravens at a Miami Dolphins (+7)
Two fun facts about this game:
The Baltimore Ravens have won three straight Week 1 games by a combined score of 80-10.
85% of the gambling public is betting the Baltimore Ravens against a team that has covered six straight Week 1 games.
So the book says I should take the Dolphins because of the 85% rule. But my gut is telling me I should take the “always prepared for Week 1 Ravens” because the Miami Dolphins are going to be a dumpster fire of an abortion in 2019.
In the end, I decided to follow my gut and bet the Ravens for the sole purpose that I don’t want to root for trash bets in Week 1.
I will say this though, people need to tread very carefully in their NFL wins/loss survivor polls. This is exactly the type of Week 1 game that goes south fast for those people who grab the "obvious" Week 1 team.
Pick: Ravens (-6.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
I think the Falcons are going to win this game, win the NFC South and make a run at the NFC Title game. So yea, I’ll be grabbing the points Week 1.
Pick: Falcons (+4)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3)
I’m actually really excited to watch Darnold vs “The Canon Rocket Missile” this week. But, since I’m running out of room, I am going to use this section to post the Blimpies Best meme of the week:
LOL . . . That’s a good one. #ROACFWATRWLMFO
(Translation - Rolling on a concrete floor with a throw rug while laughing my face off.)
Pick: Bills (+3)
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
Things I would rather do than bet the double-digit underdog Washington Redskins in Week 1:
Go on a diet. Tell my wife to calm down. Bet the 1st half over in Primetime. Start Mitch Trabanski in fantasy football. Drink Miller Lite. Give a random person on Twitter $20 for re-tweeting the link to this article. Watch a Paranormal Activities movies. Go into the Upside Down. Wear Antonio Brown's frozen cryo-chambers socks into a frozen cryo-chamber. Eat a steak without ketchup. Stop doing Twitter Polls. Talk politics with anyone. And finally I would rather give up fantasy football, gambling and drinking Natty Lights all day every Sunday of the 2019 NFL Season.
Unfortunately for me, the rules are the rules for a reason.
Pick: Washington (+10.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+1)
This line started at three and has since moved two points. This means that Vegas is getting a ton of money on the Panthers to cover. This also means that Vegas is going to be rooting hard for the defending NFC Champions to come through for them.
Once again I wonder which side The Informer should take? The betting public who doesn’t build Casinos, or the team that Vegas wants to win and also happens to be the best team in the NFC?
This is a tough one (it’s not really that tough though).
Pick: Rams (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
The first rule of never betting against Patrick Mahomes is: “You never bet against Patrick Mahomes."
The second rule of never betting against Patrick Mahomes is: “You never bet against Patrick Mahomes.”
What I am trying to say is: "The Informer will not be betting against Patrick Mahomes this week. "
Also, I honestly think this might be the only time this season you will be able to bet the Chiefs as a less than seven point favorite. So load it up on Sunday and enjoy the Mahomes show.
(Informer fantasy football note — Mecole Hardman is getting a touchdown Week 1. So if you are in a need for an Antonio Brown replacement, pick up the Chief’s rookie speedster.)
Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (-7)
The Chargers are without their second best offensive player (Melvin Gordon) and their best defensive player (Derwin James). They are playing in a “home” stadium that will be filled with Colts fans. And everyone is betting them despite the fact that the Colts have the better coach, better defense, better offensive line and Darius “I’m about to break 200 tackles” Leonard.
Listen, I know Andrew is gone (I miss him just as much as everyone else), but the fact is this Colts team is stacked with talent. So if Brissett can be 75% of Andrew Luck — Which he can— than the Colts are going to be a tough out for anyone.
I’m not saying the Colts win, but I think they hang close and definitely cover.
Pick: Colts (+7)
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle HGHawks (-9)
Since I don’t have anything interesting to say about the Bengals or HGHawks this week, here are a few of my favorite season long prop bets that I made:
Leonard Fournette over 989.5 yards rushing.
Nick Chubb over 1050.5 yards rushing.
Saquon Barkley over 1885.5 total receiving and rushing yards.
Dalvin Cook over 6.5 rush TDs.
Patrick Mahomes o37 TD passes and 4,650 yards.
Tom Brady u29.5 TD passes.
Nick Foles under 3,750.5 yards passing.
Joe Flacco o16.5 TD passes.
David Johnson over 1580.5 total rushing and receiving yards.
LeVeon Bell o9.5 rushing touchdowns.
And some team over/under bets:
Cards u5.5
Falcons o8.5
Ravens o8.5
Chiefs o10.5
Dolphins u4.5
Pats o11.5
Steelers o9.5
HGHawks o8.5
Washington u6.5
And of course The Informer’s division winners and Super Bowl pick.
AFC - Pats, Steelers, Titans and Chiefs
NFC - Dallas, Rams, Falcons and Packers
Super Bowl - Pats or Chiefs defeat Packers or Rams
Pick: HGHawks (-9)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Here is something kind of fun, my friend and former editor — Nik Swartz — has a 9-year old son who is getting into the NFL Picks game. And of course being the new guy in the business, Mr. AC decided he wanted to take on the best in the world so he challenged The Informer to a one on one picks off.
Well Mr. AC, consider your challenge accepted. But I must warn you, there will be no taking it easy just because you are the new guy. No, sir. I’m telling you right now that when you mess with The Informer —you get the horns my friend.
All trash talk aside, I truly do wish you luck young AC. You are gonna need it.
As for the Cowboys-Giants game itself? I am grabbing the 7.5 points. I think this is one of those “Saquon did what” type of games which allows the Giants to hang close.
Pick: Giants (+7.5)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
You know how they tell you not to go grocery shopping on an empty stomach? Because your mind will keep thinking how hungry you are and thus you end up buying tons of food that you know you don't need and that is definitely not good for your health?
That’s how I feel about this game. I am so starved for NFL gambling that I talked myself into the definitely bad for me idea of betting on a rookie quarterback making his first career start and a first year coach who couldn’t beat Baylor last season.
This should end well (shaking head no).
#DontGambleOnAnEmptyStomach
Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay (PK)
Do you know how many NFL players have started their careers with six straight 1,000 yard receiving seasons?
Just one. The great Randy Moss.
With that said, did you also know that Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans is entering his sixth year in the NFL with five straight 1,000 yard season?
Just saying, keep your eye on Mike this year as he has a chance to make some history.
As for the game, count me in on the Bruce Arians is going to “QB Whisper” Jameis Winston into a franchise guy.
Pick: Tampa Bay (PK)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . DO NOT BET AGAINST TOM BRADY IN PRIMETIME!!! Are we all on the same "do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime" page? Pick: LKLOTW Pats (-5.5)
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7)
The New Orleans Saints have lost five straight Week 1 games.
In the words of Forrest Gump: “That’s all I have to say about that.”
So here is what I wrote for this section at 0530am central time on Saturday Morning before the AB news broke:
"Randy Moss scored 11 touchdowns as a member of the Raiders. So my question is: Will Antonio Brown finish his Raiders career with more or less touchdowns then Randy Moss? I’m taking the under. I’m also taking the Donkey’s to win and cover this spread."
I guess that counts as another win, right? #JustWow. #PleaseSignWithThePatsOrChiefsAB
Pick: Donkey’s (-1)
That’s a wrap folks. Damn it is good to have football back. I hope everyone reading this has a glorious opening Sunday filled with Natty Lights, winning parlays and all the back door covers your heart desires.
See you next week.
Informer out.
The Informer after the blog note- I am posting below the video of young AC making his picks. Feel free to check it out and follow him on YouTube. I got to say the young man definitely has good camera presence and the gift of storytelling. I think he just might be going places. Keep up the good work kid.
One of the main questions I get asked by people seeking fantasy football advice is: Who should I pick with the “insert pick” in my draft?
Needless to say; there are a ton of different variables that go into answering this question, so giving a specific "take this guy here" is pretty difficult (for example let’s say the guy hates the Cowboys and refuses to draft Zeke, that changes how I would answer if the guy had a Top 4 pick).
But, just because it is difficult, doesn't mean there is not an answer. That is why today, in my quest to answer the "who should I draft here" question, I have put all of the 2019 NFL fantasy football players I love into different "Tier Groups" for each round of a standard fantasy football snake draft.
This way -- when the inevitable happens -- and the guy who you were going to pick at 47 gets snaked, instead of frantically searching through player rankings while the clock ticks down, you will be able to refer back to the tier groupings and find a suitable 47th pick replacement.
At least that is the plan for this blog. We will see how it turns out.
Anyways, now that we are all on the same "tier" page, here is part four of The Informer’s 2019 Fantasy Football Preview. Picks 1-5: Saquon Barkley, Run CMC, Zeke Elliot, Alvin Kamara and David Johnson
In any and all 2019 fantasy football drafts these are the only five guys I am drafting if I have a Top 5 pick. And I will be drafting them in this exact order.
(Informer note — I am obviously drafting under the impression that Zeke Elliot will not be holding out any games this season. I get that his situation could make him a non draftable player for some, but I am going to continue thinking positive thoughts and assume he will be back soon.)
Picks 6-10: LeVeon Bell, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Tyreke Hill, Michael Thomas, Nick Chubb
On Yahoo, Tyreke Hill is usually going in the late second or early third round. So some will say he does not belong in The Informer's Top 10. To those people I would say you are morons. Tyreke Hill will finish as a Top 5 WR this season and thus he totally needs to be considered at the end of the first round, and at the very least the beginning of round two (Hill is going Top 15 on ESPN so at least they agree with The Informer).
As for the other guys; I don’t think you can go wrong picking any of them in the six to 10 range. So whomever you prefer, or whoever falls to you, snatch them up.
Picks 11-20: Tyreke Hill (seriously draft him), DeVante Adams, Odell Beckham, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith Schuster, Mike Evans, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Todd Gurley
Todd Gurley scares me the most out of this group, but if I have the last pick in the second round and he is the only one of these 20 players left I’m gonna take him. Besides, pairing Gurley and Saquon (assuming you take Saquon 1st like I do) in a fantasy backfield is not the worst thing to ever happen.
The rest of this tier is pretty much the same as my back half of round one tier. Namely, they are all studs so it doesn’t matter who you take or where. Just don’t do something dumb and reach for Patrick Mahomes in Round 2 and you should be fine.
21-30: Leonard Fournette, Zack Ertz, George Kittle, Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper, Josh Jacobs, Patrick Mahomes, DeVante Freeman, Damian Williams, Derrick Henry
This goes without saying, but if any of the Top 20 guys falls into the 21-30 range you should be taking them as fast as you can. Also, once you get to the third round, I no longer have a problem drafting Mahomes. So if you are targeting the “rocket armed man” pick 21 is the earliest I would think to draft him in standard leagues.
31-40: Melvin Gordon, Julian Edelman, Keenan Allen, Adam Thailand, Kerryon Johnson, TY Hilton, Brandon Cooks, Stefon Diggs, DeShaun Watson, Marlon Mack, Robert Woods
I will not be drafting Melvin Gordon to any of my teams going forward. I have too many bad “post traumatic LeVeon Bell flashbacks” to entertain the idea of adding Gordon this year. But if you are wanting to take a chance, the 31-40 range is when it would be acceptable to go fishing. Me personally -- if no one from the other tiers fall -- I am looking at “Kerryon my wayward Johnson”, “Mr. 1k” Brandon Cooks or Tom Brady’s best friend in this range.
41-50: David Montgomery (Bears rookie RB), Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, Cooper Kupp, AJ Green, Sony Michel, Mike Williams, Chris Carson, Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Linsey
I really like this group and will be hoping at lest one of these guys drops to the 51-60 range so I can get two guys from this tier. In a perfect world I would love to get Michel or David Montgomery here, then turn around and get AJ Green (should be back by Week 4 at the latest) with my next pick. 51-60: Chris Goodwin, Damian Williams, Evan Ingram, Alshon Jeffery, Kenny Golloday, OJ Howard, Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan, Tyler Lockett, James White or Jarvis Landry.
Again I am assuming someone from the tier above will drop, but if not a person can't go wrong with Chris Goodwin (rising fast and probably needs to be moved up a tier), James White, Jarvis Landry or Baker's Mayfield. 61-70: Miles Sanders, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Darrius Guice, Tyler Boyd, Sammy Watkins, Tarik Cohen, Austin Ekler
What starting position do you still need to fill? Figure that out and then draft the best player (or guy you love the most at that position) with this pick. Or draft Darrius Guice because I think he is going to be awesome.
71-80: Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray Cam Newton, Tevin Coleman, Robby Anderson, The Joker, Josh Gordon, Larry Fitzgerald, Will Fuller, Dede Westbrook, Courtland Sutton, Duke Johnson, Christian Kirk Honestly, if you are not taking a QB here, or "The Joker", you should be taking the highest ranked player available. This is not the time to start jumping down your draft board to grab sleepers, or reach for a lesser tight end to fill need. Now is the time to build strength. So, when the other people in your league make the mistake of reaching, you stick to the basics and I promise your team will be better for it.
81-90: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Vance McDonald (TE), Marvin Jones, Dak, Big Ben, Jared Goff, Rashaad Penny, Curtis Samuel, James Washington, Darwin Thompson, Mecole Hardman. Same as above. Keep taking best player available, or fill out your QB spot if you have been waiting.
91-Til the end
At this point in the draft it is time to start taking fliers on rookies, or your favorite sleepers (Darwin Thompson, Mecole Hardman are mine), or anyone from the above 90 players that have slipped in the draft.
With that said, since we are here to put players into tiers, I went ahead and tiered by position my favorite late rounds picks. QB: Phillip Rivers, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, James Winston, Sam Darnold.
RB: Darwin Thompson, Jaylen Samuels, Dion Lewis, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Darrell Henderson, Malcom Brown, Justin Jackson, Devin Singletary Kareem Hunt, Neyheim Hines and Adrian Peterson.
WR: Michael Gallup, N’Keal Harry, Mohmmad Sanu, Albert Wilson, Cole Beasley, Paris Campbell, Jalen Hurd, Preston Williams, Jakobi Myers, Rashard Higgins, Deebo Samuel.
TE: Austin Hooper, Greg Olson, Kyle Rudolph, Jim Graham, Jack Doyle, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Dallas Goedert, Chris Herndon (Herndon is a Top 5-8 TE from last year who is a great draft and stash until he returns from suspension in Week 5).
And with that, we are done with Part 4. In case you missed them, here is Part 1, Part Deux and Part 3. Hopefully everyone reading will be able to use these blogs to win tons of fantasy football glory (and more importantly money) this season. Good luck with all your drafts. I hope you win.
Now if you will excuse me, The Informer has three drafts and 12 cans of Natty Light that need attending to.
(The Informer after the blog note -- Before we go I just wanted to say it really sucks that we are no longer going to get to watch Andrew Luck play football. He has been one of my favorite players over the last seven years and I am going to miss the heck out of watching him play. So thank you Andrew for all the great memories. It was a pleasure watching you play football. Also, for those wondering, here is my full on Twitter meltdown upon hearing the news. I thought I handled myself pretty well considering the circumstances)
The Informer’s 7 stages of Andrew Luck’s retirement:
1) Call Adam Schefter a liar
2) Shocked
3) Denial
4) Blame Al Gore
5) Acceptance
6) Be thankful I got to watch Andrew play
7) Taco Bell pic.twitter.com/XVz8FoiA2X
