Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Sunday, October 6, 2019

The Informer's 2019 NFL Picks: Week 5



Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle HGHawks (PK)

The Informer’s proof of pick tweet:


Pick: HGHawks (PK)

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

I think the Ravens win this game. So I will be betting them. With that said, after back to back losses, I have decided Lamar Jackson is no longer in The Informer’s “expert opinion” Top 5 MVP rankings.

Speaking of which: Here are The Informer’s “expert opinion” Top 5 MVP rankings:
  1. Patrick Mahomes - The reigning 2018 NFL MVP had one of the worst games of his professional career last week and still ended up with 315 yards passing, 54 yards rushing and a 34-30 road victory. So yea, he is stays at number one for me.
  2. Russell Wilson - The HGHawks leader gets the benefit of already having won his Week 5 game, but even with the one game advantage it is hard to argue against Wilson -- and his 12-0 TD-INT ratio through five games -- being in the MVP talks.
  3. Tom Brady - One bad game (which the Pats won) does not take the great Tom Brady out of The Informer's MVP race. I am just saying; when the season ends and the Pats are 15-1 do you really think the voters are going to be talking about a Week 4 game against the Bills?
  4. Dak Prescott - I got Dak ahead of Aaron Rodgers for now.
  5. Aaron Rodgers - We will find out Sunday if it stays that way.  
Pick: Ravens (-3)

Chicago Bears @ Oakland Raiders (+5.5)

Normally The Informer would be a Skive Toff and put a Fiver on the Chav home underdogs. But wouldn’t you know it; this Bloody Match is taking place Across the Pond in Wembley Stadium. So the normal gambling Rubbish doesn’t count, even if It’s Monkeys Outside. So with that said; I like the Meat and Two Veg Chicago Bears to get Plastered and put the All to Pot John Gruden’s Into Her Majesty’s Pleasure. Obviously this bet won’t Horses for Courses. But if a few Bits n Bobs go Anorak, The Informer’s John Thomas will be going Off to Bedshore with an On the Pull Punter whose nice Strawberries and Cream are looking to get Up the Duff.

What The Informer is trying to say is grab some Fish n Chips, grill up the Bangers and turn the Telly on. Because on Sunday this Daft Cow is gonna Do Starkers like a Blighty Smeg creating a Dog’s Dinner for everyone.

Seriously you Wankers, this pick is Dog’s Bollocks.

Bob’s your uncle.

Pick: Bears (-5.5)

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Jacksonville Jags @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

I am betting the two home teams. I literally have nothing else to add to this section of the blog.

Pick: Bengals (-3) Panthers (-3)

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (+5.5)

Other than Dalvin Cook -- and maybe Evan Engram -- this game completely bores me. So instead of giving you hard gambling statistics as to why I am betting the Minnesota Vikings, here are three of The Informer’s favorite Draft King lineups for Sunday.

QB- Matty Ice
RB - Dalvin Cook
RB - Run CMC
WR - DJ Charks Jr
WR - Mohammad “What’s” Sanu
WR: Courtland Sutton
TE - Evan Engram
Flex - Miles Sanders (breakout week I think)
Defense- Panthers

QB - Thomas Brady
RB - Jordan Howard
RB - Run CMC
WR - DJ Chark Jr
WR - Courtland Sutton
Wr - Golden Tate
TE - Evan Engram
FLEX - Phillip Linsey
Defense- Patriots

QB- Lamar Jackson
RB - Leonard Fournette
RB - Derrick Henry
WR - Phillip Dorsett
WR- Mike Evans
WR - Courtland Sutton
TE- Austin Hooper
Flex - Mark Andrews
Defense- Pats

Pick: Vikings (-5.5)

New England Patriots @ Washington (+15.5)

Last night I had a dream The Informer was very upset that the Washington Redskins scored a last-minute touchdown to back door cover the spread and help Vegas screw 85% of the public who were betting the Patriots.

So obviously, since dreams are for suckers and never come true, I am going to be betting the Pats on Sunday.

Pick: Pats (-15.5)

New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles (-15)

Ladies and gentlemen here is the Blimpie Best Garner Milksteak meme of the Week:


#TheLegendContinues

Pick: Jets (+15)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans Saints (-3)

My hard hitting gambling analysis is this: I am going to bet the Saints at home because I don’t see Tampa Bay beating the Rams-Saints on the road in back to back weeks.

Pick: Saints (-3)

Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans (-4)

I think this tweet pretty well sums up how I feel about this game:

Pick: Falcons (+4)

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (-3)

Has anyone mentioned that this is a rematch of the “Music City Miracle” game? No? Just me? I am the only person in the entire internet who remembers the "Music City Miracle"?

That is strange.

Anyways, which means please don’t make me bring up Frank Reich’s comeback as well, I am betting the Bills because I love Josh Allen.

Pick: Bills (+3)

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5)

Me: The Denver Donkey’s really suck at football. I mean they are total garbage trash sh*t.

Also Me: Give me a unit on the Donkey’s +5.5. I got a good feeling about them this week.

Pick: Donkey’s (+5.5)

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Aaron Rodgers getting points in Dallas is a bet I am willing to wager on.

Pick: Packers (+3)

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

I have decided that I am going to bet on Patrick Mahomes every single game from now until the day he reitres. I don’t care the points, the teams, or the situation: If Mahomes is playing The Informer is betting his side.

Pick: Chiefs (-12.5)

Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Before we get to my Monday Night football pick -- and wrap this blog up -- I thought we could do a quick impromptu Twitter mailbag?

Doesn’t that sound fun?

Okay, here we go:

The Joker, Darth Vader, Kate from Titanic and Danielson.


You mean where a disgruntled team owners drops all of his players and totally Throws a Spanner in the Works for the entire league? I absolutely f***ing hate it. If your team sucks, or a guy gets injured, or you didn't know the rules and drafted like a Tosser; don't be a Knob Head by "sabotage dropping" your team so that the entire league is ruined. Accept the fact that you are a Fanny Arse and take your beating like the Bugger you are.



I once ate a footlong Blimpe Best with an 8oz "well done" ribeye steak on the side --with ketchup of course -- and washed it down with a tall boy Natty Light. That's gonna be pretty tough to beat.

There has literally never been anything truer in the history of the flat Earth.

I have no idea what in the blue hell QBR is. So I don’t really know how or what they measure it by. But I will say if Patrick Mahomes is the current QBR leader then they are probably doing it correctly.

I haven’t seen Joker yet, but it looks like a movie that I will probably watch when it comes available on DVD.


I had trouble narrowing it down to just five things, so instead I went and bought a bigger time capsule box and put all of these items in.
  • My Randy Moss Vikings #84 jersey I’ve had since 1998.
  • A Blimpie’s free sandwich punch card.
  • An Armageddon BlueRay disc.
  • A Twinkie (since they don’t expire)
  • A 40oz of Natty Light.
  • My PlayStation3 (I’m not giving up my PS4 for a time capsule).
  • This link to the “One Night in Paris” X-rated movie.
  • Tom Brady
  • A Nickelback greatest hits CD.
  • A VHS tape of the Nebraska Cornhuskers winning the 1996 Fiesta Bowl.
  • The October 1989 edition of Playboy magezine.
  • A bottle of Heinz 57 ketchup (just in case they still have steak in the future).
  • A pair of Allen Iverson “The Answer 3” shoes.
  • A log of Skoal Mint long cut.
  • It’s Always Sunny complete seasons DVd set.
  • A box of Magnum condoms.
  • Bill Simmons’ Book of Basketball
  • A pack of Pall Mall reds.
  • Rollerblades.
  • And finally, this picture of Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter shirtless.


  1. Twix and Scream - Twix is my favorite candy and Scream is my favorite scary movie franchise. So obviously they go together like lamb and tuna salad.
  2. Milky Way and Ernest Scared Stupid - When I think about my childhood I think about Milky Ways and Ernest (that’s not really true, but it sounds good so I'm gonna leave it in the blog).
  3. Snickers and Friday the 13th - Snickers and Jason have been haunting camp counselors since they were invented.
  4. P.B. Cups and Halloween- I feel like PB cups are the original candy of the world and Michael Myers is the original Horror movie villain. So naturally they have to be paired together.
  5. Skittles and A Nightmare on Elm Street - Skittles have five flavors and Freddy Kruger has five knives as fingers? Does that work? Or is The Informer drunk again? Maybe we should move on?

I searched the internet for at least six minutes and I could not find any scientific evidence, or Al Gore quotes, that would disprove the theory that Chicken Nuggets are the perfect food.


Thank you for the great tweet and the many great questions. I really appreciate it. As for the answers: Miami. You misspelled Blimpies. Yes. All in the Family is not in my Top 10. And finally, Natty Light is not beer --it is the nectar of the Tim Tebow’s.


Yes the Browns will make the playoffs. In fact, not only are the Browns going to make the playoffs, I think they are going to beat the 49ers outright on Monday Night football. Which of course means I have not choice but to make the Browns (+3.5) The Informer's Week 5 Lion King Lock of the Week.

Pick: LKLOTW Browns (+3.5)

 That is a wrap for folks. Once again I want to thank everyone on Twitter who took the time to ask me a question and helped make this blog great again.

I really do appreciate you all.

And finally, I hope everyone reading this has a happy Sunday filled with winning parlays, backdoor covers, Patrick Mahomes touchdowns and all of the Natty Lights your liver can handle.

Informer out.


THE INFORMER'S 2019 NFL PICKS RECORD

 Overall: 35-28

 Last Week: 8-7

 LKLOTW: 2-2

 Overall Winning Weeks ATS : 3-1

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Sunday, September 29, 2019

The Informer's 2019 NFL Picks: Week 4

 

 Q: Nice call on the 1st half under in primetime last night Informer. And by nice call I obviously mean total sh**. Seriously, you follow up a 7-9 Week 3 with an under bet that was damn near covered by both teams individually? Is it hard to suck that bad at life? Or do you come by it naturally? Honestly, I would call you trash, but that would be an insult to trash. Why don't you do the world a favor and delete your blog already?

Well, I sure am glad I decided to start this week's article with some emails from the made up readers. That looks like it was a real smart decision. On the bright side, at least I was not called fat or ugly this time.

Q: One more thing Informer, you are an ugly overweight wilderbeast. 

I walked right into that one. But for real, are there any actual sports or gambling questions?

Q: I got one Informer: What is the one thing you hate the most about the 2019 NFL Season?

The thing I hate the most about the 2019 NFL Season -- other than Andrew Luck retiring -- is the new pass interference challenge rule. The thing is an absolute disaster. The refs apparently have been told to not change the call on the field unless one of three things happens 1) Vegas needs the team who would benefit from the challenge to win/cover. 2) A murder, rape or shooting takes place. 3) The refs missed an egregious pass inference call (whatever the f*** that means)?

Just look at what happened on Thursday night. The refs had three chances to change obvious pass inference missed calls and each time they totally ignored the video evidence and stuck with the non-call on the field.

So my question becomes: Why the hell do we even have the new rule if they are not going to use it to get the call right?

And don't give me this "it has to be egregious" (seriously I don't even think that is a real word) crap. If there is an obvious pass interference -- like the Eagles defensive player grabbing, hitting, punching, impeding, holding, inappropriately touching and obviously interfering with the receiver -- then use the technology to make the right call.

I guess my point is this: If they are not going to change these calls when its obvious, then why even use the technology? Just go back to the old way and we can all live with the bad call on the field. At least that would be better than getting boned over by the call a second time when the refs see the video evidence and still refuse to admit they f***ed up.

Q: Okay Informer, what is the one thing you love the most?

I will give you two: Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. They are awesome and my favorite thing about every NFL football Sunday.

Q: Is Felix Hernandez a Hall of Famer?

Ummm . . .Wrong blog dude (my answer is no though).

Q: Who are your Top 5 MVP candidates through three weeks?
  1. Patrick Mahomes - No one has been better then Patrick Mahomes through three weeks. 
  2. Tom Brady - No one not named Patrick Mahomes has been better than Tom Brady through three weeks.
  3. Lamar Jackson - Losing a shoot-out against Patrick Mahomes doesn't drop Lamar out of my Top 5 MPV rankings. But I am watching to see how he responds in Week 4 against the Browns. 
  4. Dalvin Cook - Cook is on pace for 2,400 total yards from scrimage on a team that is going to be fighting for a playoff spot. Sounds like an MVP candidate to me. 
  5. Aaron Rodgers - If Aaron Rodgers is going to lead the Packers to the NFC North Championship (which I am predicting) he is going to be in the MVP conversation.
Q: How can you call yourself an expert at making NFL picks when you are getting smoked by a nine year old? You are a fraud Informer. You somehow tricked people into thinking you knew something when the reality is anyone can do what you do. Even a kid.

Have you ever heard of Bobby Fisher? Or Adam Banks? Or MacCaulley Culkin? Or Young Sheldon?

Those "kids" as you call them happened to be prodigies. You know what a prodigy is? Its a person who is a genius even though the outside world would call them a "kid".

Well guess what, I am starting to think "Young AC" is a prodigy when it comes to making NFL picks.

So yea, I take absolute no shame in getting beat by a genius. Furthermore, if being a fraud means I am going to keep my six games above .500 record (27-21 ATS) throughout the season -- along with my "winning 80% of the time" first half under in Primetime bets -- then please sign me up as the biggest fraud on the internet. 

Because if being that fraud means winning, I am happy to keep up the act.

And on that note, here are The Informer's Week 4 NFL Picks.

As always please remember that these picks are only to be used for shady illegal bets made with guys named "Slim", "Suds", "Big Tuna", "Jim" or anything that rhymes with the words "Slick Willy", "Big Wussy" or "Small Rick".

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-4)

The Informer's proof of Thursday Night Football Pick:



Pick: Eagles (+4)

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans (-5)

Is a guy named Kyle really going to win back to back NFL road games? Just seems far-fetched to me.

Pick: Texans (-5)

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

I have zero scientific logic, theories on the flat Earth, or gambling statistics to back up my pick; but I am grabbing the points and betting the Browns. 

Pick: Browns (+7)

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3)

When two crappy teams are playing against each other the rules clearly state one must always take the points. Even if that means betting the Redskins on the road.

Pick: Washington (+3)

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (+15.5)

Normally, since I took the Chargers in my winners suicide poll, I would bet the Dolphins as a just in case hedge bet. But I am not going to do that today and here is why: The Miami clogged toilets suck donkey rectum and I refuse to put money on them.

How’s that for scientific gambling data.

Pick: Chargers (-15.5)

Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (-7)

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again with the same results. Yet here I am, totally not insane, once again betting the Oakland Raiders as a heavy road underdog.

In the words of the great Roy Munson: "Who you calling a psycho?"

Pick: Raiders (+7)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (+7)

For fun here is one of the DraftKings lineups The Informer set up for today:

QB: Mahomes
RB: McCoy
RB: Williams (the non injured one)
WR: Sammy Watkins
WR: D. Robinson (from Chiefs)
WR: Mecole Hardman
TE: Travis Kelce
Flex: D. Freeman (Falcons)
D: Chiefs

I guess what I’m trying to say is I think the Chiefs are about to have a huge day.

Pick: Chiefs (-7)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-7)

The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 when I use their section of the blog to hand out the Blimpie Best meme of the week. So for the sake of trying to help the Billsmafia out here is the Blimpies Best meme of the Week: 



Picks: Pats (-7)

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Here are 10 random stats that I found interesting heading into the Week 4 season.
  1. The New England Patriots defense is on pace to only give up 90.6 points this season.
  2. The NFL record is currently held by the Chicago Bears who in 1985 gave up 198 total points.
  3. Tom Brady needs 414 yards to pass Drew Brees for third place all time.
  4. Tom Brady's career high for passing yards in the city of Buffalo is 466.
  5. Larry Fitzgerald needs five receptions to pass Tony Gonzalez for second place all time.
  6. Julio Jones needs four more yards to reach 11,000 career receiving yards.
  7. If Jones surpasses the mark today, he will have accomplished the feat in just nine season and 114 career games.
  8. For comparison sake: It took Jerry Rice nine seasons and 133 games to surpass 11k.
  9. Speaking of milestones and records -- AC the Gambling Kid Prodigy -- is currently 35-12-1 with his straight up NFL picks and 29-19 against the spread. 
  10. To put that in perspective: According to NFL picks watch dot com his 29-19 record ATS is the third best of any expert on the internet. 
As for this game, The Informer is completely stealing AC's pick and laying the points #As the old saying goes: "If you can't beat the prodigy, use his picks to make yourself look better and make money".

Pick: LKLOTW Falcons (-3.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)

Sticking with "AC the Prodigy" here are his Week 4 picks. If you would like to get his reasoning behind the picks please click this link and go watch his YouTube video. I am not lying when I say the kid has massive talent.

AC against the Spread: Packers (-4) Falcons (-3.5), Giants (-3), Chargers (-15.5), Raiders (+7), Texans (-5), Chiefs (-7), Pats (-7), Rams (-10.5), Hawks (-5.5), Bears (PK), Jags (+2.5), Cowboys (-2.5) & Steelers (-3)

AC straight up to win: Packers, Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Ravens, Pats, Rams, Hawks, Bears, Jags, Boys & Steelers

Pick: Tampa (+10.5)

Seattle HGHAWKS @ Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (PK)

Two road teams that the majority of the public betting money is backing.

What could go wrong?

Pick: Vikings (PK) HGHawks (-5.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Donkeys (-2.5)

10 random Gardner Milksteak facts:
  1. When "The Milksteak" gives you the finger, he is telling you how many seconds you have before he throws a touchdown pass.
  2. Gardner Milksteak can pick oranges from an apple tree and make the best lemonade you have ever tasted.
  3. There is no play clock in games involving Gardner, because "The Milksteak" decides what time it is.
  4. Gardner Milksteaks real name is Gardner Minshew.
  5. Gardner Milksteak tells Simon what to do.
  6. Gardner Milksteak refers to himself in the fourth person.
  7. Every time Gardner Milksteak throws an interception a Unicorn is born. It's just to bad that the Milksteak never throws interceptions.
  8. Gardner Milksteak can throw a football right between a cyclops eye.
  9. Gardner Milksteak can cut a butter knife with a football.
  10. And finally, Gardner Milksteak eats pieces of Denver Donkey's for breakfast. 
Pick: Jags (+2.5)

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (+2.5)

The Saints backup quarterback tricks were fun for a week, but I don't think they can do it two weeks in a row.

Pick: Cowboys (-2.5)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Nope. Not doing it. Next.

“Informer you can’t do the next gimmick, this is the Monday night football game.”

Wait, again? Are you serious? What did ESPN do to make the NFL so mad at them?

Yikes. 

Well, I am obviously not going to waste any time talking about the Steelers or the Bengals, so how about I just remind everyone that the 1st half under is 21.5 and wrap this blog up.

Is that a good plan?

Awesome.

Pick: Steelers (-3)

That’s it for Week 4. Good luck to everyone reading. I truly hope your Sunday is filled with Natty Light, winning parlays and enough back door covers to build your own Blimpies sub shop.

See y’all next week.

Informer out.

THE INFORMER'S 2019 NFL PICKS RECORD

 Overall: 27-21

 Last Week: 7-9

 LKLOTW: 2-1

 Overall Winning Weeks ATS : 2-1


(The Informer after the blog straight up to win picks: Packers, Falcons, Chargers, Colts, Chiefs, Ravens, Pats, Rams, Hawks, Vikings, Donkeys, Boys, Steelers)
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Sunday, September 15, 2019

The Informer's 2019 NFL Picks: Week 2


Here are The Informer’s Week 2 NFL Picks. As always, please remember that these picks are only to be used for reckless and illegal gambling purposes.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Proof of Thursday night pick tweet:



Pick: Carolina (-6.5)

San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals (PK)

Me: Okay Informer, if you are ever going to be taken seriously as a writer you need to cutdown on the bull crap. That means no more random out of context tidbits, stories or rants. I’m being serious Informer. From this point forward useless facts and tangents are strictly forbidden.

Also me:

Did you know the 49ers and Bengals have a total of 34 combined letters in their names (17 for each team)? Did you also know that is not the most combined letters for two teams playing against each other? Nope there are actually four NFL combinations (all involving the Jacksonville Jaguars) that have a total of 37 combined letters.

Those matchups are

Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars  and Washington Redskins
Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots

#TheMoreUselessStuffYouKnow

(The Informer actual gambling note of the day- This line has moved from Bengals -2 to a pick’em; which means all of the public money is currently on the 49ers. So keep that in mind when you are building your brand new Casino placing your bets.)

Pick: Bengals (PK)

San Diego Chargers @ Detroit Lions (+1.5)

I don’t really care about these two teams, so instead of talking about them how about we discuss The Informer’s “After Week 1” MVP rankings?
  1. Lamar Jackson - A right handed Michael Vick. I honestly think if he stays healthy Baltimore is gonna be  right there with Kansas City and New England come January.
  2. Patrick Mahomes - Remember when all the experts said to wait on a quarterback because Mahomes was going to high in fantasy drafts? Yea those people were wrong. I mean seriously, the dude had 315 yards passing in the first half. He is amazing.
  3. Tom Brady - That’s What I love about these Tom Brady football games: "I get older and he stays the same age."
  4. Sammy Watkins - If he catches 3 TDs a week I think he will have a shot to win the award.
  5. Dak Prescott - If the Cowboys win the NFC East, then Dak will be in the MVP conversation.
Pick: Lions (+1.5)

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3)

That whole Top 5 ranking thing was kind of fun. I think we should do some more of that. So here are five more random lists of "Informer Top 5 Favorite Things."

NFL  nicknames
  1. Josh “The Cannon Missile” Allen
  2. Gardener “Milksteak”
  3. AJ “The Sickness” Green
  4. Mitch “Trabanski”
  5. Marlon “Return of the Mack”
2019 TV Shows
  1. It’s Always Sunny
  2. Yellowstone
  3. BH90210
  4. Blue Bloods
  5. NFL Primetime #ItsBackBaby
Sub Sandwich Shops
  1. Blimpies
  2. Jersey Mike’s
  3. Firehouse Subs
  4. Which Wich
  5. Jimmy John’s
Keno Number Combinations
  1. 17-52
  2. 2-13
  3. 6-17
  4. 1-69-80
  5. 2-4-6-13-17-20
Fast & Furious Movies
  1. Fast & Furious 1
  2. Fast & Furious 4
  3. Fast & Furious 7
  4. Fast & Furious 5
  5. Fast & Furious 6
Pick: Packers (-2.5)

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3)

I may not be a scientist, but even I am smart enough to know that there is no way on Tim Tebow's Green Earth the Tennessee Titans are going to lose at home on the same day they retire Steve “Air” McNair and Eddie George’s jerseys.

Go ahead and Lion King Lock this in as a Titans win and cover folks.

Pick: LKLOTW Titans (-3)

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+19)

75% of the public is betting against an 18.5 point double digit home underdog.

Tom Brady is 1-5 in his last six games in Miami.

The Patriots under Bill Belichick  are 0-5 against the spread when the line is over 18 points.

“Informer are you seriously trying to make a case for betting the Miami Dolphins against Tom Brady? Man I think you have finally drank yourself stupid. Seriously, there is not enough gambling rules in the world to entice me to place hard earned money on the clogged toilet of a dumpster fire piece of s*** Miami Trash.”

Did you just say "clogged toilet of a dumpster fire piece of s***? That's a weird use of the English language flex, but ok. I like it. As far as the gambling goes; I am just letting you know what the rule book says. And in this case the rule book clearly states you have no choice but to bet the Miami clogged toilets.

Pick: Clogged Toilets (+19)

Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants (+1.5)

As long as Josh “The Cannon Missile” Allen keeps winning, I have no choice but to keep using his section for the Blimpie Best meme of the week:


I don't care who you are, that is freaking hilarious. #SugeBelichick

Pick: Bills (-1.5)

Seattle HGHawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+6)

According to my very mediocre internet searching skills, Dallas and Pittsburgh are the two highest betted (Is betted a word?) teams this week; with each team getting 80% of the action in their favor. Well, as we keep saying on this blog, when 80% of the bets are going one way, it is smart for the person to zag the opposite way.

#KeepBuildingThemCasinosVegas #InCaseKeenumWeTrust #HGHawks.

Pick: Washington (+6) HGHawks (+4)

Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens (-13)

65% of the public bets are on a rookie quarterback making his first career road start against the Baltimore Ravens? I just don’t like those odds.

Pick: Ravens (-13)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-9)

In honor of the Texans being favored by nine points, here are nine random Informer thoughts, questions and hot takes:
  1. Despite dropping his first pass since the 2017 season, I still think DeAndre Hopkins is pretty good at football.
  2. Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Hockinson, Gardner Milk Steak, Kyler Murray and Hollywood Brown are rookies I love.
  3. Classic Jets. #Mono? #Really?
  4. Adrian Peterson, making his first start of the 2019 NFL season this Sunday against the Cowboys, needs one rushing touchdown to break a 5th place tie with Jim Brown for career touchdowns.
  5. Dear NFL, more Monday night doubleheaders and less Thursday night football. Please and thank you.
  6. I once said there was no way in the bluest of blue hells that I would ever pay money for the ESPN premium app. So what did ESPN do? They totally made The Informer a filthy liar thanks to their announcement that Chris Berman and Tom Jackson were bringing NFL Primetime out of retirement. It literally took me six minutes after reading the news for me to give you my credit card information. Well played ESPN. Well played indeed.
  7. I’m not sure who needs to hear this but I’m going to say it anyways: Julio Jones— aka the guy who never catches touchdowns — has caught a touchdown pass in five straight games.
  8. Tom Brady only needs three TD passes to surpass Peyton Manning for second place on the all time career list. Also, Tom Brady plays the Miami Dolphins this week. #ItWasAGoodRunPeyton
  9. I think I would not be doing my job as a famous sports blogger if I didn’t point out that the 1st half under in Primetime is 5-0 on the season.
Pick: Jags (+9)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-7)

For fun, let's play a quick game of compare these players at age 26.

Player A: 241 receptions, 3,506 yards & 32 TDs
Player B: 241 receptions, 3,769 yards & 31 TDs

What if I told you that player A went on to become an NFL Hall of Famer who finished his career with 1,101 receptions, 13,899 yards & 130 TDs (Chris Carter), while player B is Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins who still has 15 games left in his age 26 season?

I wanted to bring up this comparison for a few reasons. First, I found it interesting that both guys came into the NFL with huge expectations but only lasted 3-years with the teams that drafted them (Carter & Eagles, Watkins & Bills). Secondly, I wanted to point out that while Sammy's career has not gone the way many experts (myself included) expected, if you look at what Carter did after his age 26 season; then it would appear Watkins still has plenty of time to achieve that greatness.

I for one am 100% rooting (and expecting now that he has Mahomes as his QB) for Sammy to do it. Because the NFL is always better when great players reach their great potential.

Pick: Chiefs (-7)

Chicago Trabanski’s @ Denver Donkey’s (+2.5)

Things I would rather do then bet Mitch Trabanski as a road favorite:

Wash the dishes. Eat asparagus. Crack. Watch Nic Cage’s movie “The Wicker Man”. Go for a jog. Tell my wife she is overreacting. Put goat cheese on my pizza. Drink Coors Light. Lose to a 9-year old in an NFL Picks off. Go scarf/vail shopping with Cam Newton. Order a fake impossible Whopper from Burger King. Bet the 1st half over in Primetime. And finally, I would rather bet Joe Flacco starting his first home game as a Denver Donkey in the stadium that made him a hero.

Pick: Donkey’s (+2.5)

New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams (-1.5)

If the WWE NFL writers really want this Saints-Rams feud to reach its full potential, then they have to put the Rams over on Sunday. And if they are truly looking for“X-PAC” nuclear heat, then they have no choice but to let the Rams win with a questionable penalty call from Earl Hebner the refs late in the game.

Of course, if the writers -- in the name of being best for Fox business -- are going to script the Saints into a “Montreal Screw Job” finish on Sunday; then I have no choice but to load the heels Rams

Pick: Rams (-1.5)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)

I’m betting the Atlanta Falcons. I have no good reason or scientific data to support this decision. This is purely an "I want to root for the team I like on Sunday Night Football" so I am going to bet them pick. So please take this selection with a grain of cocaine.

Pick: Falcons (+2.5)

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+2.5 & +7)

I got the Browns at (-2.5) in my Super Picks contest, but I know with Sam "Mono y Darnold" out this line jumped to (-7). I also know since it was announced "The Mono Man" was out, the public has been throwing money on the Browns like they were a rapper at the strip club. And, well, since we keep saying not to follow the public bets; I decided I will be keeping the Browns at (-2.5) in my Super Picks contest, while also betting the Jets (+7) for the cover.

In the gambling world I think this is called having your Blimpies and drinking your Natties to.

Pick: Browns (-2.5) & Jets (+7)

 That is a wrap folks. I hope your Sunday is filled with cold Natties, at least one Blimpie Best, winning parlays, backdoor covers, 1st half unders and enough 3-team teasers to kill a small community bank.

Informer out.



THE INFORMER'S 2019 NFL PICKS RECORD

Overall: 11-5

Last Week: 11-5

Lion King Lock of the Week: 1-0

1st Half Under in Primetime: 5-0

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Saturday, September 7, 2019

The Informer's 2019 NFL Picks: Week 1



Welcome ladies and gentlemen to Season 12 of The Informer’s NFL Picks blog. For those of you that are new here, my name is The Informer and I will be your host for the duration of the 2019 NFL Season.

Now, before we get to the Week 1 picks, I would like to share a few reasons as to why it would be beneficial to your well being for you to read this blog each and every week.

Here goes:
  • Nine of the past 11 seasons I have finished over 50% against the spread.
  • In 2018, The Informer’s picks handed out 10 winning weeks, three break even weeks and only four losing weeks.
  • Also in 2018, The Informer finished with an overall record of 136-113-7 against the spread. This means if you would have bet $100 on every game I picked you would have finished up $2,230 on the season
  • Lastly, I spend way too much time and energy watching football and writing this blog; so if you all read it every week it will make me feel like I am special. And we all know in 2019 that making someone feel special is the wokest thing a person can do. 
Ok, now that we got the "why" out of the way, here are The Informer’s 11 commandments for 2019 NFL gambling.

(Remember These are steadfast rules that should never be broken unless you have a really strong gut feeling that the rule should be broken.)
  1. Double digit underdogs like to cover.
  2. If 80% of the bets are going one way, you need to zag the other way (there is a reason Vegas keeps building Casino’s and it’s not because the obvious bet keeps hitting)
  3. Don’t bet against Tom Brady unless he is playing in Miami. You hate winning bets. You think he is going to have one of his “bad” regular season games where the media starts the “he is to old” storyline. Or you like to throw away money.
  4. Be scared of home underdogs (unless said home dog is the Miami Dolphins).
  5. Don’t ever, not even if there is a fire, bet against Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady in Primetime.
  6. When in doubt bet the team with the better QB.
  7. Always take the points when two bad teams are playing.
  8. Seriously, the Miami Dolphins are gonna suck.
  9. The 1st half under in Primetime.
  10. No such thing as a stay away. Gotta bet everything and anything. The more bets you make the more chances you have to win all the money.
  11. And finally, Week 1 is an absolute crapshoot where anything and anything can and will happen. So be prepared for wild outcomes you did not see coming (because they are going to happen). 
And on that note, here are Week 1 of The Informer’s 2019 NFL Picks. As always please remember to gamble with reckless abandon and absolutely zero regard for human life.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3)

The Informer’s proof of pick Thursday Night Football tweet:


Pick: Packers (+3)

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5)

I want everyone to know, if the Browns are awesome this year they will become my fourth favorite team behind AJ Green, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Of course, if they pull a Browns and are still the Cleveland Browns, you can go ahead and disregard this entire section.

Pick: Titans (+5.5)

Baltimore Ravens at a Miami Dolphins (+7)

Two fun facts about this game:
  1. The Baltimore Ravens have won three straight Week 1 games by a combined score of 80-10.
  2. 85% of the gambling public is betting the Baltimore Ravens against a team that has covered six straight Week 1 games.
So the book says I should take the Dolphins because of the 85% rule. But my gut is telling me I should take the “always prepared for Week 1 Ravens” because the Miami Dolphins are going to be a dumpster fire of an abortion in 2019.

So what should I do?

Follow the fat famous Informer gut? Or stick to the basics book?

In the end, I decided to follow my gut and bet the Ravens for the sole purpose that I don’t want to root for trash bets in Week 1.

I will say this though, people need to tread very carefully in their NFL wins/loss survivor polls. This is exactly the type of Week 1 game that goes south fast for those people who grab the "obvious" Week 1 team.

Pick: Ravens (-6.5)

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

I think the Falcons are going to win this game, win the NFC South and make a run at the NFC Title game. So yea, I’ll be grabbing the points Week 1.

Pick: Falcons (+4)

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3)

I’m actually really excited to watch Darnold vs “The Canon Rocket Missile” this week. But, since I’m running out of room, I am going to use this section  to post the Blimpies Best meme of the week:


LOL . . . That’s a good one. #ROACFWATRWLMFO

(Translation - Rolling on a concrete floor with a throw rug while laughing my face off.)

Pick: Bills (+3)

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)

Things I would rather do than bet the double-digit underdog Washington Redskins in Week 1:

Go on a diet. Tell my wife to calm down. Bet the 1st half over in Primetime. Start Mitch Trabanski in fantasy football. Drink Miller Lite. Give a random person on Twitter $20 for re-tweeting the link to this article. Watch a Paranormal Activities movies. Go into the Upside Down. Wear Antonio Brown's frozen cryo-chambers socks into a frozen cryo-chamber. Eat a steak without ketchup. Stop doing Twitter Polls. Talk politics with anyone. And finally I would rather give up fantasy football, gambling and drinking Natty Lights all day every Sunday of the 2019 NFL Season.

Unfortunately for me, the rules are the rules for a reason.

Pick: Washington (+10.5)

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+1)

This line started at three and has since moved two points. This means that Vegas is getting a ton of money on the Panthers to cover. This also means that Vegas is going to be rooting hard for the defending NFC Champions to come through for them.

Once again I wonder which side The Informer should take? The betting public who doesn’t build Casinos, or the team that Vegas wants to win and also happens to be the best team in the NFC?

This is a tough one (it’s not really that tough though).

Pick: Rams (-1)

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

The first rule of never betting against Patrick Mahomes is: “You never bet against Patrick Mahomes."

The second rule of never betting against Patrick Mahomes is: “You never bet against Patrick Mahomes.”

What I am trying to say is: "The Informer will not be betting against Patrick Mahomes this week. "

Also, I honestly think this might be the only time this season you will be able to bet the Chiefs as a less than seven point favorite. So load it up on Sunday and enjoy the Mahomes show.

(Informer fantasy football note — Mecole Hardman is getting a touchdown Week 1. So if you are in a need for an Antonio Brown replacement, pick up the Chief’s rookie speedster.)

Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The Chargers are without their second best offensive player (Melvin Gordon) and their best defensive player (Derwin James). They are playing in a “home” stadium that will be filled with Colts fans. And everyone is betting them despite the fact that the Colts have the better coach, better defense, better offensive line and Darius “I’m about to break 200 tackles” Leonard.

Listen, I know Andrew is gone (I miss him just as much as everyone else), but the fact is this Colts team is stacked with talent. So if Brissett can be 75% of Andrew Luck — Which he can— than the Colts are going to be a tough out for anyone.

I’m not saying the Colts win, but I think they hang close and definitely cover.

Pick: Colts (+7)

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle HGHawks (-9)

Since I don’t have anything interesting to say about the Bengals or HGHawks this week, here are a few of my favorite season long prop bets that I made:
  • Leonard Fournette over 989.5 yards rushing.
  • Nick Chubb over 1050.5 yards rushing.
  • Saquon Barkley over 1885.5 total receiving and rushing yards.
  • Dalvin Cook over 6.5 rush TDs.
  • Patrick Mahomes o37 TD passes and 4,650 yards.
  • Tom Brady u29.5 TD passes.
  • Nick Foles under 3,750.5 yards passing.
  • Joe Flacco o16.5 TD passes.
  • David Johnson over 1580.5 total rushing and receiving yards.
  • LeVeon Bell o9.5 rushing touchdowns.
And some team over/under bets:
  • Cards u5.5
  • Falcons o8.5
  • Ravens o8.5
  • Chiefs o10.5
  • Dolphins u4.5
  • Pats o11.5
  • Steelers o9.5
  • HGHawks o8.5
  • Washington u6.5
And of course The Informer’s division winners and Super Bowl pick.

AFC - Pats, Steelers, Titans and Chiefs

NFC - Dallas, Rams, Falcons and Packers

Super Bowl - Pats or Chiefs defeat Packers or Rams

Pick: HGHawks (-9)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Here is something kind of fun, my friend and former editor — Nik Swartz — has a 9-year old son who is getting into the NFL Picks game. And of course being the new guy in the business, Mr. AC decided he wanted to take on the best in the world so he challenged The Informer to a one on one picks off.

Well Mr. AC, consider your challenge accepted. But I must warn you, there will be no taking it easy just because you are the new guy. No, sir. I’m telling you right now that when you mess with The Informer —you get the horns my friend.

All trash talk aside, I truly do wish you luck young AC. You are gonna need it.

AC’s Picks to win: Bears, Rams, Eagles, Jets, Vikings, Ravens, Chiefs, Browns, Chargers, Hawks, 49ers, Dallas, Lions, Pats, Saints & Raiders.

AC's Picks ATS: Bears (L), Rams (-1), Eagles (-10), Bills (+3), Vikings (-4), Ravens (-6.5), Chiefs (-3.5), Browns (-5.5), Chargers (-7), HGHawks (-9), 49ers (PK), Giants (+7.5), Lions (-3), Pats (-5.5), Texans (+7) and Raiders (+1)

As for the Cowboys-Giants game itself? I am grabbing the 7.5 points. I think this is one of those “Saquon did what” type of games which allows the Giants to hang close.

Pick: Giants (+7.5)

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

You know how they tell you not to go grocery shopping on an empty stomach? Because your mind will keep thinking how hungry you are and thus you end up buying tons of  food that you know you don't need and that is definitely not good for your health?

That’s how I feel about this game. I am so starved for NFL gambling that I talked myself into the definitely bad for me idea of betting on a rookie quarterback making his first career start and a first year coach who couldn’t beat Baylor last season.

This should end well (shaking head no).

#DontGambleOnAnEmptyStomach

Pick: Cardinals (+2.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay (PK)

Do you know how many NFL players have started their careers with six straight 1,000 yard receiving seasons?

Just one. The great Randy Moss.

With that said, did you also know that Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans is entering his sixth year in the NFL with five straight 1,000 yard season?

Just saying, keep your eye on Mike this year as he has a chance to make some history.

As for the game, count me in on the Bruce Arians is going to “QB Whisper” Jameis Winston into a franchise guy.

Pick: Tampa Bay (PK)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5)

Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . Do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime . . . DO NOT BET AGAINST TOM BRADY IN PRIMETIME!!!

 Are we all on the same "do not bet against Tom Brady in Primetime" page?

Pick: LKLOTW Pats (-5.5)

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7)

The New Orleans Saints have lost five straight Week 1 games.

In the words of Forrest Gump: “That’s all I have to say about that.”

Pick: Texans (+7)

Denver Donkey's @ Oakland Raiders (+1)

So here is what I wrote for this section at 0530am central time on Saturday Morning before the AB news broke:

"Randy Moss scored 11 touchdowns as a member of the Raiders. So my question is: Will Antonio Brown finish his Raiders career with more or less touchdowns then Randy Moss? I’m taking the under. I’m also taking the Donkey’s to win and cover this spread."

I guess that counts as another win, right? #JustWow. #PleaseSignWithThePatsOrChiefsAB

Pick: Donkey’s (-1)

That’s a wrap folks. Damn it is good to have football back. I hope everyone reading this has a glorious opening Sunday filled with Natty Lights, winning parlays and all the back door covers your heart desires.

See you next week.

Informer out.



The Informer after the blog note- I am posting below the video of young AC making his picks. Feel free to check it out and follow him on YouTube. I got to say the young man definitely has good camera presence and the gift of storytelling. I think he just might be going places. Keep up the good work kid.


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